Ford’s Driver Development Problem

In the Cup Series, there are 7 teams that drive Fords: Team Penske, Stewart-Haas Racing, RFK Racing, Wood Brothers Racing, Front Row Motorsports, Live Fast Motorsports, and Rick Ware Racing. Those 7 teams make up 15 Cup Series cars in the field every week. Fords make up over a third of the field. With so many Cup cars, how many Fords race in the two lower series on a full-time basis? 10. Of those 10 lower series cars, how many have a Ford Performance driver behind the wheel? 4.

That is worrisome math for any Ford fan. To add onto that worry, think about the exciting driver “prospects” that are currently racing in the Xfinity and Truck Series. Out of those drivers, how many of them drive a Ford? When considering the upcoming youth from the lower series, there is one driver who would be considered an exciting prospect coming out of the Ford camp. That driver would be Zane Smith, who is currently in the Truck Series. When Ford looks to the future, the future has to look somewhat bleak.

Underwhelming Upcoming Talent

The four Ford Performance Drivers that drive in the two lower series of NASCAR are Riley Herbst (SHR – 98 Xfinity car), Zane Smith (Front Row – 38 truck), Hailie Deegan (DGR – 1 truck), and Tanner Gray (DGR – 15 truck).

As mentioned previously, Zane Smith is undoubtedly the most exciting prospect out of this bunch. He is currently competing in the Truck Playoffs, where he seems poised to make his second straight Championship Four appearance. His 2022 statistics have been impressive thus far. He has 3 wins, 12 Top-5s, and an average finish of 7.9. In addition, Smith finished 17th while filling in for Chris Buescher at WWT Raceway. Front Row has already announced Smith’s 2023 plans, which includes returning to the 38 truck full time, some possible Xfinity Series starts, and his Daytona 500 debut. For Zane Smith, the future seems solid. Then there are the remaining drivers.

Riley Herbst is a cast-off from the Toyota Racing Development program. After a poor showing in a Joe Gibbs Xfinity Series car in 2020, Herbst found his way to SHR to replace Chase Briscoe in the 98 ride. In 2020, Briscoe drove that car to 9 wins and an average finish of 8.4. Since Herbst has taken over, the 98 car has not seen victory lane yet. Over the last 59 races, Herbst has only placed in the Top-5 11 times. In almost two full seasons, Herbst has barely edged Briscoe’s win total with his Top-5 total. If Herbst did not have significant sponsorship from Monster Energy, it is highly likely he would not have a top-tier Xfinity Series Ride.

Speaking of a driver with Monster Energy backing, Hailie Deegan has failed to impress in her two years in the Truck Series. Before the 2021 season, there was significant hype around Deegan. A marketable female driver with funding who was having decent success in the ARCA Series was a promising venture for Ford. Her move to the Truck Series was the natural progression in her career. However, her career trajectory has taken a hit. In 43 races in the Truck Series, Deegan has only managed 2 Top-10s and an average finish of 21.7. In over 50% of her starts, she fails to finish on the lead lap. More concerning is the fact that her second season in trucks is producing worse results than her rookie season. Deegan still offers off-track benefits to Ford, but the on-track performances are leaving much to be desired.

Joining Hailie Deegan in the DGR lineup is Tanner Gray. Much like Deegan, Gray is in his second full-time truck season. Gray’s 2022 has been an improvement upon his 2021 season. In 2021, Gray had a Top-5 and one additional Top-10 with an average finish of 22.3. Plus, he only finished on the lead lap 8 times. Through 20 races this year, Gray has 2 Top-5s, 5 Top-10s, and an average finish of 17.5. The improvement is great to see out of a younger driver, but the results are still disappointing. DGR might not be top-tiered truck equipment, but their 17 truck has seen victory lane 3 times over the past two years (Preece: Nashville x2, Gilliland: Knoxville).

Lack of Development Rides

While the current crop of Ford developmental drivers is not great, the main issue is that there are only 10 full-time Fords in the two lower series. In the Xfinity Series, there are 3 additional teams driving Fords other than SHR: BJ McCleod Motorsports, SS-Green Light Racing, and RSS Racing. However, those teams are not Ford Performance teams and are likely not producing future Cup Series drivers. SS-Green Light has a technical alliance with SHR, but that only serves to allow Cup drivers to run some Xfinity races. BJ McCleod’s team is not a competitive Xfinity Series team and the drivers they employ are Xfinity lifers (at best).

RSS Racing might be the exception here. Ryan Sieg is a Xfinity lifer but Parker Retzclaff and Kyle Sieg are young drivers with promising futures. Both have been making frequent appearances for the team in 2022. However, their career aspirations are likely going to take off after they leave the lesser funded RSS Racing, which might mean a switch to a different manufacturers.

The lack of Fords in the fields for Xfinity and Truck Series races should be concerning for Ford’s development. What is sad about this situation is the fact that this is the highest number of Fords over the past four seasons. Ford has not had a consistent presence in the lower series since the days of Roush’s Xfinity Series program. While this year might have more numbers, the quality of the numbers has taken a hit. Last year, Penske had a full-time Xfinity Series entry with Austin Cindric in the 22 car. In 2020, Thor Sport ran Fords. 2019 was the last year of two SHR Xfinity cars with the 98 and 00. Even with Thor Sport running trucks, that team is not a developmental team for a manufacturer. A championship caliber team? Of course, but their recent driver lineups of Matt Crafton, Johnny Sauter, and Granter Enfinger do no scream “future Cup drivers”.

For a manufacturer that has a third of the chartered entries for the Cup Series, how can Ford be comfortable with a lack of quality rides in the lower series?

A Missed Opportunity

Ford’s problem with developmental drivers is nothing new. One could argue that Roush, Ford’s dominant force in the 2000s, started to slowly decline to mediocrity when they failed to replace Mark Martin with a quality driver. Disappointing driver prospects have seemingly become a staple of the Ford brand. Their successful drivers are free agent pick-ups from other manufacturers.

Other than Ryan Blaney, which driver to develop through the Ford camp has been a success? Austin Cindric and Todd Gilliland are rookies so it is too early to tell. Chase Briscoe could also fall into that category, though his rookie season was disappointing. Cole Custer seems to be a bust (1 win and 11 Top-10s in 103 starts). Chris Buescher is slowly starting to piece things together with a rebuilding RFK. Honestly, Ricky Stenhouse Jr has been the second best Ford developed driver over the past decade. If Stenhouse is the second most successful driver from a manufacturer over the past decade, something is wrong.

This recent past and current lack of burgeoning talent is why Ford should have went after Kyle Busch aggressively. While Busch’s resume and driving ability speaks for itself, Ford’s interest in Kyle should have been focused around Kyle Busch Motorsports. After the closure of Brad Keselowski Racing in the Truck Series after the 2017 season, there has been a void for Ford driver development. BKR had Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe, and Austin Cindric all drive for the team. Kyle Busch Motorsports would have been the perfect team to fill that void in the Truck Series.  KBM has had an impressive driver lineup go through their team over the years. KBM graduates include Christopher Bell, William Byron, Erik Jones, Noah Gragson, and Harrison Burton. Couple those past graduates with the current status of KBM trucks being contenders for every win, that would bolster Ford’s stock racing team.

With Aric Almirola returning to the 10, that did not leave Ford with an empty seat for Kyle Busch. Based on pure driving, most teams would want Busch over Almirola. However, sponsorships play a factor and the allure of Smithfield on the 10 car for the bulk of races is more enticing than Busch’s mystery box of potential sponsors. Custer’s performance alone would suggest he could have been booted for Busch. Familial ties would have prevented that switch. Penske’s lineup was set and every other Ford team would be too great of step down in equipment for Busch to even consider. It would have required some shuffling of pieces to get Busch, but it would have been worth it. Ford should have done everything they could to get Kyle Busch in one of their Cup Series rides. They need another team in either the Xfinity or Truck Series for young drivers. Whatever Busch would bring on track in 2023 and beyond as a driver is valuable, but KBM is future value for years to come. Bringing KBM to Ford would have been the shot in the arm the manufacturer needs.

Missing out on Kyle Busch and his Truck Series team is a lost opportunity. DGR seems to be the team that is trying to be the “first step” for Ford developmental drivers, but the results have not panned out. Front Row could expand to multiple trucks or Brad Keselowski might dip his toe back into owning a lower series team. Those options are out there and would help. It would not be as immediate as KBM coming to Ford, but somethings take time. There is missing development from the Ford camp in stock car racing. Ford needs a team to step up and add more quality Fords to the lower series to support their Cup Series aspirations.

Featured image source: performance.ford.com