This weekend in Bristol is the cutoff race for the round of 16 in the NASCAR Cup Series. After this race only 12 drivers and 12 owners will be in the running for the championship. Below is the minimum and simplest scenarios that a driver/owner needs to do in order to clinch a spot into the round of 12. No matter what else happens in the race on Saturday night if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the next round.
Driver Points Clinching Scenarios
Christopher Bell
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- Clinched
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William Byron
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- No winner below cut: Needs 8 points (29th place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 9 points (28th place finish)
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Denny Hamlin
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- No winner below cut: Needs 8 points (29th place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 9 points (28th place finish)
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Joey Logano
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- No winner below cut: Needs 16 points (21st place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 17 points (20th place finish)
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Ryan Blaney
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- No winner below cut: Needs 20 points (17th place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 21 points (16th place finish)
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Alex Bowman
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- No winner below cut: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 27 points (10th place finish)
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Chase Elliott
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- No winner below cut: Needs 28 points (9th place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 29 points (8th place finish)
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Kyle Larson
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- No winner below cut: Needs 29 points (8th place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 30 points (7th place finish)
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Ross Chastain
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- No winner below cut: Needs 30 points (7th place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 31 points (6th place finish)
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Daniel Suarez
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- No winner below cut: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 stage points)
- Winner below cut: Needs 51 points (2nd place finish + 16 stage points)
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Tyler Reddick
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- No winner below cut: Needs 54 points (2nd place finish + 19 stage points)
- Winner below cut: Needs to beat any 4 drivers on points
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Austin Cindric
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- No winner below cut: Needs 54 points (2nd place finish + 19 stage points)
- Winner below cut: Needs to beat any 4 drivers on points
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Kyle Busch
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- No winner below cut: If he stays above Austin Dillon, Chase Briscoe and Kevin Harvick in points then he needs one of the following scenarios: 3 points more than Austin Cindric, 3 points more than Tyler Reddick, 7 points more than Daniel Suarez, 27 points more than Ross Chastain, 28 points more than Kyle Larson, 29 points more than Chase Elliott, 31 points more than Alex Bowman, 37 points more than Ryan Blaney, 41 points more than Joey Logano, 48 points more than Denny Hamlin, 49 points more than William Byron.
- Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win, but stays above the other two drivers below the cut that didn’t win then he needs TWO of the scenarios mentioned above.
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Austin Dillon
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- No winner below cut: If he stays above Chase Briscoe and Kevin Harvick in points then he needs TWO of the following scenarios: 2 points more than Kyle Busch, 4 points more than Austin Cindric, 4 points more than Tyler Reddick, 8 points more than Daniel Suarez, 28 points more than Ross Chastain, 29 points more than Kyle Larson, 30 points more than Chase Elliott, 32 points more than Alex Bowman, 38 points more than Ryan Blaney, 42 points more than Joey Logano, 49 points more than Denny Hamlin, 50 points more than William Byron.
- Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win and Briscoe and Harvick doesn’t win as well, he needs TWO of the scenarios mentioned above. If Briscoe or Harvick win then he needs THREE of the scenarios mentioned above
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Chase Briscoe
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- No winner below cut: If he stays above Kevin Harvick in points then he needs THREE of the following scenarios: 7 points more than Austin Dillon, 8 points more than Kyle Busch, 10 points more than Austin Cindric, 10 points more than Tyler Reddick, 14 points more than Daniel Suarez, 34 points more than Ross Chastain, 35 points more than Kyle Larson, 36 points more than Chase Elliott, 38 points more than Alex Bowman, 46 points more than Ryan Blaney, 48 points more than Joey Logano.
- Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win and Harvick doesn’t win, he needs THREE of the scenarios mentioned above. If Harvick does win then he needs FOUR of the scenarios mentioned above
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Kevin Harvick
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- No winner below cut: He needs FOUR of the following scenarios: 27 points more than Chase Briscoe, 33 points more than Austin Dillon, 34 points more than Kyle Busch, 36 points more than Austin Cindric, 36 points more than Tyler Reddick, 40 points more than Daniel Suarez.
- Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then again he needs FOUR of the scenarios mentioned above.
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Driver Points Clinching Scenarios
23XI Racing No. 45
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- Clinched
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Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20
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- Clinched
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Hendrick Motorsports No. 24
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- No winner below cut: Needs 8 points (29th place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 9 points (28th place finish)
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Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11
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- No winner below cut: Needs 8 points (29th place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 9 points (28th place finish)
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Team Penske No. 22
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- No winner below cut: Needs 16 points (21st place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 17 points (20th place finish)
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Hendrick Motorsports No. 48
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- No winner below cut: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 27 points (10th place finish)
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Hendrick Motorsports No. 9
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- No winner below cut: Needs 28 points (9th place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 29 points (8th place finish)
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Hendrick Motorsports No. 5
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- No winner below cut: Needs 29 points (8th place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 30 points (7th place finish)
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Trackhouse Racing No. 1
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- No winner below cut: Needs 30 points (7th place finish)
- Winner below cut: Needs 31 points (6th place finish)
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Trackhouse Racing No. 99
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- No winner below cut: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 stage points)
- Winner below cut: Needs 51 points (2nd place finish + 16 stage points)
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Richard Childress Racing No. 8
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- No winner below cut: Needs 54 points (2nd place finish + 19 stage points)
- Winner below cut: Needs to beat any 4 other owners on points
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Team Penske No. 2
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- No winner below cut: Needs 54 points (2nd place finish + 19 stage points)
- Winner below cut: Needs to beat any 4 other owners on points
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Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18
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- No winner below cut: If the No. 18 stays above the No. 3, No. 14 and No. 4 in points then he needs one of the following scenarios: 3 points more than the No. 2, 3 points more than the No. 8, 7 points more than the No. 99, 27 points more than the No. 1, 28 points more than the No. 5, 29 points more than the No. 9, 31 points more than the No. 48, 41 points more than the No. 22, 48 points more than the No. 11, 49 points more than the No. 24.
- Winner below cut: If the No. 18 doesn’t win, but stays above the other two owners below the cut that didn’t win then he needs TWO of the scenarios mentioned above.
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Richard Childress Racing No. 3
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- No winner below cut: If the No. 3 stays above the No. 14 and No. 4 in points then he needs TWO of the following scenarios: 2 points more than the No. 18, 4 points more than the No. 2, 4 points more than the No. 8, 8 points more than the No. 99, 28 points more than the No. 1, 29 points more than the No. 5, 30 points more than the No. 9, 32 points more than the No. 48, 42 points more than the No. 22, 49 points more than the No. 11, 50 points more than the No. 24.
- Winner below cut: If the No. 3 doesn’t win and the No. 14 and No. 4 doesn’t win, he needs TWO of the scenarios mentioned above. If the No. 14 or No. 4 win then he needs THREE of the scenarios mentioned above
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Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14
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- No winner below cut: If the No. 14 stays above the No. 4 in points then he needs THREE of the following scenarios: 7 points more than the No. 3, 8 points more than the No. 18, 10 points more than the No. 2, 10 points more than the No. 8, 14 points more than the No. 99, 34 points more than the No. 1, 35 points more than the No. 5, 36 points more than the No. 9, 38 points more than the No. 48, 48 points more than the No. 22.
- Winner below cut: If the No. 14 doesn’t win and the No. 4 doesn’t win, he needs THREE of the scenarios mentioned above. If the No. 4 does win then he needs FOUR of the scenarios mentioned above
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Stewart-Haas No. 4
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- No winner below cut: The No. 4 needs FOUR of the following scenarios: 27 points more than the No. 14, 33 points more than the No. 3, 34 points more than the No. 18, 36 points more than the No. 22, 36 points more than the No. 8, 40 points more than the No. 99.
- Winner below cut: If the No. 4 doesn’t win then again he needs FOUR of the scenarios mentioned above.
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Featured image source: racingnews.co
