This weekend NASCAR heads to Talladega. So far the only Cup Series race won by someone in the playoffs was the No. 45 car in the owners points at Kansas. So, will a playoff driver finally breakthrough? Well if not there are still a few scenarios in which a driver/owner can clinch their spot into the Round of 8 even though there will be one more race left until the cut from 12 to 8. Granted most of the scenarios include winning, but no matter what else happens in the race Sunday afternoon. If the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the next round.
*This is based on the 25 point penalty to William Byron, if that gets rescinded between now and the race this page will be updated.
Driver Points Clinching Scenarios
Joey Logano
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- Non-Playoff driver wins: Needs 4 of the following scenarios:
- 44 points more than Ross Chastain
- 42 points more than Kyle Larson
- 41 points more than Ryan Blaney
- 34 points more than Denny Hamlin
- 30 points more than Daniel Suarez
- 30 points more than Chase Elliott
- 26 points more than Chase Briscoe
- 19 points more than Austin Cindric
- 18 points more than William Byron
- 1 point more than Christopher Bell
- Playoff driver wins: If he doesn’t win then he needs 5 of the scenarios above
- Non-Playoff driver wins: Needs 4 of the following scenarios:
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Ross Chastain
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- Non-Playoff driver wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
- 54 points more than Kyle Larson
- 53 points more than Ryan Blaney
- 46 points more than Denny Hamlin
- 42 points more than Daniel Suarez
- 42 points more than Chase Elliott
- 38 points more than Chase Briscoe
- 31 points more than Austin Cindric
- 30 points more than William Byron
- 13 points more than Christopher Bell
- Accumulate 12 points in the race
- Playoff driver wins: If he doesn’t win then he needs 6 of the scenarios above
- Non-Playoff driver wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
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Kyle Larson
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- Non-Playoff driver wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
- 55 points more than Ryan Blaney
- 48 points more than Denny Hamlin
- 44 points more than Daniel Suarez
- 44 points more than Chase Elliott
- 40 points more than Chase Briscoe
- 33 points more than Austin Cindric
- 32 points more than William Byron
- 15 points more than Christopher Bell
- Accumulate 14 points in the race
- Playoff driver wins: If he doesn’t win then he needs 6 of the scenarios above
- Non-Playoff driver wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
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Ryan Blaney
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- Non-Playoff driver wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
- 49 points more than Denny Hamlin
- 45 points more than Daniel Suarez
- 45 points more than Chase Elliott
- 41 points more than Chase Briscoe
- 34 points more than Austin Cindric
- 33 points more than William Byron
- 16 points more than Christopher Bell
- Accumulate 15 points in the race
- Playoff driver wins: If he doesn’t win then he needs 6 of the scenarios above
- Non-Playoff driver wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
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Denny Hamlin
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- Non-Playoff driver wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
- 52 points more than Daniel Suarez
- 52 points more than Chase Elliott
- 48 points more than Chase Briscoe
- 41 points more than Austin Cindric
- 40 points more than William Byron
- 23 points more than Christopher Bell
- Accumulate 22 points in the race
- Playoff driver wins: If he doesn’t win then he needs 6 of the scenarios above
- Non-Playoff driver wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
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Daniel Suarez
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- Non-Playoff driver wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios:
- 52 points more than Chase Briscoe
- 45 points more than Austin Cindric
- 44 points more than William Byron
- 27 points more than Christopher Bell
- Accumulate 26 points in the race
- Playoff driver wins: Needs to Win to clinch
- Non-Playoff driver wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios:
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Chase Elliott
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- Non-Playoff driver wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios:
- 52 points more than Chase Briscoe
- 45 points more than Austin Cindric
- 44 points more than William Byron
- 27 points more than Christopher Bell
- Accumulate 26 points in the race
- Playoff driver wins: Needs to Win to clinch
- Non-Playoff driver wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios:
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Chase Briscoe
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- Non-Playoff driver wins: Can’t clinch
- Playoff driver wins: Needs to Win to clinch
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Austin Cindric
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- Non-Playoff driver wins: Can’t clinch
- Playoff driver wins: Needs to Win to clinch
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William Byron
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- Non-Playoff driver wins: Can’t clinch
- Playoff driver wins: Needs to Win to clinch
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Christopher Bell
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- Non-Playoff driver wins: Can’t clinch
- Playoff driver wins: Needs to Win to clinch
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Owner Points Clinching Scenarios
Team Penske No. 22
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- Non-Playoff owner wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
- 44 points more than the No. 1
- 42 points more than the No. 5
- 34 points more than the No. 11
- 30 points more than the No. 99
- 30 points more than the No. 9
- 26 points more than the No. 14
- 19 points more than the No. 2
- 18 points more than the No. 24
- 9 points more than the No. 45
- 1 point more than the No. 20
- Same amount or more points than the No. 48
- Playoff owner wins: If he doesn’t win then he needs 6 of the scenarios above
- Non-Playoff owner wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
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TrackHouse Racing No. 1
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- Non-Playoff owner wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
- 54 points more than the No. 5
- 46 points more than the No. 11
- 42 points more than the No. 99
- 42 points more than the No. 9
- 38 points more than the No. 14
- 31 points more than the No. 2
- 30 points more than the No. 24
- 21 points more than the No. 45
- 13 points more than the No. 20
- 12 points in the race
- Playoff owner wins: If he doesn’t win then he needs 6 of the scenarios above
- Non-Playoff owner wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
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Hendrick Motorsports No. 5
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- Non-Playoff owner wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
- 48 points more than the No. 11
- 44 points more than the No. 99
- 44 points more than the No. 9
- 40 points more than the No. 14
- 33 points more than the No. 2
- 32 points more than the No. 24
- 23 points more than the No. 45
- 15 points more than the No. 20
- 14 points more than the No. 48
- Playoff owner wins: If he doesn’t win then he needs 6 of the scenarios above
- Non-Playoff owner wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
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Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11
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- Non-Playoff owner wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
- 52 points more than the No. 99
- 52 points more than the No. 9
- 48 points more than the No. 14
- 41 points more than the No. 2
- 40 points more than the No. 24
- 31 points more than the No. 45
- 23 points more than the No. 20
- 22 points more than the No. 48
- Playoff owner wins: If he doesn’t win then he needs 6 of the scenarios above
- Non-Playoff owner wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
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TrackHouse Racing No. 99
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- Non-Playoff owner wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
- 52 points more than the No. 14
- 45 points more than the No. 2
- 44 points more than the No. 24
- 35 points more than the No. 45
- 27 points more than the No. 20
- 26 points more than the No. 48
- Playoff owner wins: If he doesn’t win then he needs all 6 of the scenarios above
- Non-Playoff owner wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
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Hendrick Motorsports No. 9
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- Non-Playoff owner wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
- 52 points more than the No. 14
- 45 points more than the No. 2
- 44 points more than the No. 24
- 35 points more than the No. 45
- 27 points more than the No. 20
- 26 points more than the No. 48
- Playoff owner wins: If he doesn’t win then he needs all 6 of the scenarios above
- Non-Playoff owner wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios:
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Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14
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- Non-Playoff owner wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios:
- 49 points more than the No. 2
- 48 points more than the No. 24
- 39 points more than the No. 45
- 31 points more than the No. 20
- 30 points more than the No. 48
- Playoff owner wins: Needs to Win to clinch
- Non-Playoff owner wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios:
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Team Penske No. 2
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- Non-Playoff owner wins: Can’t clinch
- Playoff owner wins: Needs to Win to clinch
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Hendrick Motorsports No. 24
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- Non-Playoff owner wins: Can’t clinch
- Playoff owner wins: Needs to Win to clinch
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23XI Racing No. 45
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- Non-Playoff owner wins: Can’t clinch
- Playoff owner wins: Needs to Win to clinch
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Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20
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- Non-Playoff owner wins: Can’t clinch
- Playoff owner wins: Needs to Win to clinch
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Hendrick Motorsports No. 48
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- Non-Playoff owner wins: Can’t clinch
- Playoff owner wins: Needs to Win to clinch
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