Who knew one NASCAR driver could send shockwaves across the entire sport with just one career move? Yet here we are with Kyle Busch after he announces joining Richard Childress Racing from 2023 onwards. In this article, I will try my best to summarize all the ripple effects this move has and attempt to speculate what happens next in many of these scenarios.
The first effect Busch’s announcement has is the vacancy at Joe Gibbs Racing. See, Kyle Busch has been with Joe Gibbs Racing since 2008. In every season, he has been in the #18 Toyota Camry. But following his departure, a significant vacancy will be left at JGR. So who is capable of filling those big shoes? Well, there is the obvious and most likely option, Ty Gibbs. Ty is the grandson of team owner Joe Gibbs. He currently competes in the Xfinity Series, piloting the #54 Toyota Supra for Joe Gibbs Racing. Ty Gibbs has also been filling in for Kyle’s brother, Kurt Busch, since Kurt suffered a concussion in a practice crash at Pocono Raceway. He has been lighting up the Xfinity Series, and it’s a matter of when, not if, he ends up at Joe Gibbs Racing in the Cup Series.
Logically, this means there will be an opening in the #54 in the Xfinity Series. And as a matter of fact, Joe Gibbs Racing would have zero full-time drivers in 2023 for its Xfinity program. One day after Kyle Busch announced he was leaving Joe Gibbs Racing, Brandon Jones announced he would leave the #19 Toyota Supra and head for JR Motorsports to pilot the #9 Chevrolet Camaro. And Joe Gibbs Racing has always said they will enter as many cars they can find sponsorship. In my mind, I see Sammy Smith going full-time in the #18 Toyota Supra and John Hunter Nemechek going full-time in the #19 Toyota Supra. Both drivers are under contract with Toyota beyond 2022, so this logically makes sense. And there could be a third car, similar to what the #18 is this year in the Xfinity Series.
John Hunter Nemechek moving up to the Xfinity Series must mean a vacancy at Kyle Busch Motorsports, Kyle Busch’s Craftsman Truck Series team, right? Well, Kyle Busch announced that KBM would be moving to Chevrolet as a part of his switch to Richard Childress Racing. This switch means John Hunter Nemechek and Corey Heim need new homes as they are both contracted with Toyota. Seeing as I have found a place for John Hunter, the question is where Corey Heim could take his talents. I think an additional year in Trucks, potentially full-time, would be beneficial. And KBM leaving Toyota leaves ThorSport Racing, the now highest profile Toyota team in the Truck Series. With the backing of JBL and potentially Safelite, I believe ThorSport would add a fifth truck for Corey, and he could take his talent there for 2023.
Chandler Smith is also currently driving for Kyle Busch in the Truck Series but does not have a Toyota contract. So theoretically, he could stick around at KBM; in my mind, that’s what he does. As for his teammates, I have no idea. Leaving the Toyota Driver Development pipeline means Kyle Busch will have to find drivers on his own. Maybe Ty Dillon returns to Trucks and kicks around at KBM for a year or two. Nick Sanchez and Daniel Dye are two ARCA drivers who come to mind as worthy of moving up to Trucks. There will be plenty of options, and it isn’t easy to speculate here.
But returning to Kyle Busch, he will pilot the #8 for Richard Childress Racing. The issue, there already is a driver contracted to that car for 2023 in Tyler Reddick. And Richard Childress, owner of Richard Childress Racing, has already said he plans on running three chartered teams in 2023. But RCR only owns two charters. So, is RCR looking to buy a third charter for a long-term program? Will they lease one from another team for a year? Or is this just a bluff? At the moment, I’m leaning towards the latter. I think Richard Childress doesn’t want to go through the expensive process of acquiring a charter, even for one year, and assembling a crew in a lame duck season for Tyler Reddick. I think he wants Toyota to buy out Reddick’s contract and prevent this unnecessary headache. It could be a costly game of chicken where everyone loses. Or it could go perfectly for Childress. But in what situation would Toyota be desperate enough to fork over the money for Reddick? I am glad you asked.
Enter 23XI Racing, the other Toyota team in the Cup Series, into the picture. 23XI Racing owners are Denny Hamlin, current Joe Gibbs Racing driver, and Michael Jordan. Yes, that Michael Jordan. They currently field two cars in the Cup Series: the #23 for Bubba Wallace and #45 for Kurt Busch. But as I mentioned earlier, Kurt is currently sidelined for the indefinite future. And with his current replacement, Ty Gibbs, speculated to be headed to Joe Gibbs Racing, who could replace him in the unfortunate circumstance that he cannot return in 2023? Why Tyler Reddick, of course. Earlier this year, team owner Denny Hamlin announced that 23XI Racing had signed Tyler Reddick to drive for the organization starting in 2024. This announcement shocked nearly everyone, including Richard Childress Racing. So if Reddick heads there in a year anyways, and the situation calls for it, why not bring him in early to start his driving duties for the team? I would much rather see Kurt Busch back for 2023, but Toyota and 23XI have the Tyler option if need be.
A lot is still unknown about Kyle Busch’s bombshell departure from JGR. The ripple effects of this move will be felt for months, possibly years, to come. But as an eternal optimist, I am hopeful it will work out for the best for all parties involved. It could get messy, or maybe I am looking for some drama that will never come. But I know that silly season is starting to pick up, and I couldn’t be more excited.
Very interesting read. đź‘€