Clinching Scenarios: Cup Series – Martinsville

It’s that time of year again. We are one week away from finding out who is the NASCAR Cup Series Champion. As we head into Martinsville there are 8 drivers and 8 owners hoping to run for a championship. After this race though only 4 drivers and 4 owners will be in the running for a championship next weekend at Phoenix. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Championship 4. Likely the drivers will not need this much, but this is the maximum that needs to be done to clinch. However in the instance where a driver needs more or less than another, that is what needs to be done (or better) no exceptions.

*Denotes that scenario does not including the scenario with the driver who wins the race

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Joey Logano

• • • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas

2) Ross Chastain

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 36 points (2nd place finish + 1 stage point)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 41 points (2nd place finish + 6 stage points)

3) Chase Elliott

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 45 points (2nd place finish + 10 stage points)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 stage points)

4) William Byron

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 51 points (2nd place finish + 16 stage points)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 15 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 7 points more than Chase Elliott
      • 4 points less than Denny Hamlin or better
      • 17 points less than Ryan Blaney or better
      • 32 points less than Christopher Bell or better
      • 43 points less than Chase Briscoe or better

5) Denny Hamlin

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 20 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 12 points more than Chase Elliott
      • 6 points more than William Byron
      • 12 points less than Ryan Blaney or better
      • 27 points less than Christopher Bell or better
      • 38 points less than Chase Briscoe or better
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 4 of the scenarios above*

6) Ryan Blaney

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 33 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 25 points more than Chase Elliott
      • 19 points more than William Byron
      • 14 points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 14 points less than Christopher Bell or better
      • 25 points less than Chase Briscoe or better
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 4 of the scenarios above*

7) Christopher Bell

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 48 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 39 points more than Chase Elliott
      • 33 points more than William Byron
      • 29 points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 16 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 10 points less than Chase Briscoe or better
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 4 of the scenarios above*

8) Chase Briscoe

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 50 points more than Chase Elliott
      • 44 points more than William Byron
      • 39 points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 26 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 12 points more than Christopher Bell
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 4 of the scenarios above*

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Team Penske No. 22

• • • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas

2) Hendrick Motorsports No. 5

• • • Clinched based on win at Homestead

3) TrackHouse Racing No. 1

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 41 points (2nd place finish + 6 stage point)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 47 points (2nd place finish + 12 stage points)

4) Hendrick Motorsports No. 9

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 stage points)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 9 points more than the No. 1
      • 5 points less than the No. 24 or better
      • 10 points less than the No. 11 or better
      • 38 points less than the No. 20 or better
      • 49 points less than the No. 14 or better

5) Hendrick Motorsports No. 24

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 15 points more than the No. 1
      • 7 points more than the No. 9
      • 4 points less than the No. 11 or better
      • 32 points less than the No. 20 or better
      • 43 points less than the No. 14 or better
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 4 of the scenarios above*

6) Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 20 points more than the No. 1
      • 12 points more than the No. 9
      • 6 points more than the No. 24
      • 27 points less than the No. 20 or better
      • 38 points less than the No. 14 or better
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 4 of the scenarios above*

7) Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 48 points more than the No. 1
      • 39 points more than the No. 9
      • 33 points more than the No. 24
      • 29 points more than the No. 11
      • 10 points less than the No. 14 or better
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 4 of the scenarios above*

8) Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14

• • • No winner below cut: Needs all 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 50 points more than the No. 9
      • 44 points more than the No. 24
      • 39 points more than the No. 11
      • 12 points more than the No. 20
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he cannot advance