Clinching Scenarios: Cup Series – ROVAL

After an unusual couple of races in the Round of 12 the NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Roval. After this race only 8 drivers and 8 owners will be in the running for a championship. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race on Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the next round. Likely the drivers will not need this much but this is the maximum that needs to be done to clinch.

*Denotes that scenario does not including the scenario with the driver who wins the race

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

Chase Elliott

• • • Clinched based on win at Talladega

Ryan Blaney

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 23 points (14th place finish)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 35 points (2nd place finish)

Ross Chastain

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 28 points (9th place finish)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 40 points (2nd place finish + 5 stage points)

Denny Hamlin

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 35 points (2nd place finish)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 47 points (2nd place finish + 12 stage points)

Joey Logano

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 38 points (2nd place finish + 3 stage points)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 stage points)

Kyle Larson

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 38 points (2nd place finish + 3 stage points)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 stage points)

William Byron

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 42 points (2nd place finish + 7 stage points)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 54 points (2nd place finish + 19 stage points)

Daniel Suarez

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 44 points (2nd place finish + 9 stage points)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 3 of the following scenarios*
      • 21 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 17 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 10 points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 7 points more than Joey Logano
      • 7 points more than Kyle Larson
      • 3 points more than William Byron
      • 11 points less than Chase Briscoe or better
      • 11 points less than Austin Cindric or better
      • 44 points less than Christopher Bell or better

Chase Briscoe

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 3 of the following scenarios*
      • 33 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 29 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 22 points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 19 points more than Joey Logano
      • 19 points more than Kyle Larson
      • 15 points more than William Byron
      • 13 points more than Daniel Suarez
      • 1 point more than Austin Cindric
      • 32 points less than Christopher Bell or better
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 3 of the scenarios above*

Austin Cindric

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 3 of the following scenarios*
      • 33 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 29 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 22 points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 19 points more than Joey Logano
      • 19 points more than Kyle Larson
      • 15 points more than William Byron
      • 13 points more than Daniel Suarez
      • 1 point more than Chase Briscoe
      • 32 points less than Christopher Bell or better
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 3 of the scenarios above*

Christopher Bell

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 3 of the following scenarios*
      • 55 points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 52 points more than Joey Logano
      • 52 points more than Kyle Larson
      • 48 points more than William Byron
      • 46 points more than Daniel Suarez
      • 34 points more than Chase Briscoe
      • 34 points more than Austin Cindric
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 3 of the scenarios above*

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

Hendrick Motorsports No. 9

• • • Clinched based on win at Talladega

• • TrackHouse Racing No. 1

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 28 points (9th place finish)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 28 points (9th place finish)

Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 35 points (2nd place finish)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 35 points (2nd place finish)

Team Penske No. 22

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 38 points (2nd place finish + 3 stage points)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 38 points (2nd place finish + 3 stage points)

Hendrick Motorsports No. 5

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 38 points (2nd place finish + 3 stage points)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 38 points (2nd place finish + 3 stage points)

Hendrick Motorsports No. 24

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 42 points (2nd place finish + 7 stage points)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 42 points (2nd place finish + 7 stage points)

TrackHouse Racing No. 99

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 44 points (2nd place finish + 9 stage finish)
    • Winner below cut: Needs 44 points (2nd place finish + 9 stage points)

Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 29 points more than the No. 1
      • 22 points more than the No. 11
      • 19 points more than the No. 22
      • 19 points more than the No. 5
      • 15 points more than the No. 24
      • 13 points more than the No. 99
      • 1 point more than the No. 2
      • 23 points less than the No. 45 or better
      • 32 points less than the No. 20 or better
      • 33 points less than the No. 48 or better
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 4 of the scenarios above*

Team Penske No. 2

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 29 points more than the No. 1
      • 22 points more than the No. 11
      • 19 points more than the No. 22
      • 19 points more than the No. 5
      • 15 points more than the No. 24
      • 13 points more than the No. 99
      • 1 point more than the No. 14
      • 23 points less than the No. 45 or better
      • 32 points less than the No. 20 or better
      • 33 points less than the No. 48 or better
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 4 of the scenarios above*

23XI Racing No. 45

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 53 points more than the No. 1
      • 46 points more than the No. 11
      • 43 points more than the No. 22
      • 43 points more than the No. 5
      • 39 points more than the No. 24
      • 37 points more than the No. 99
      • 25 points more than the No. 14
      • 25 points more than the No. 2
      • 8 points less than the No. 20 or better
      • 9 points less than the No. 48 or better
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 4 of the scenarios above*

Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 55 points more than the No. 11
      • 52 points more than the No. 22
      • 52 points more than the No. 5
      • 48 points more than the No. 24
      • 46 points more than the No. 99
      • 34 points more than the No. 14
      • 34 points more than the No. 2
      • 10 points more than the No. 45
      • 0 points more than the No. 48 or better
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 4 of the scenarios above*

Hendrick Motorsports No. 48

• • • No winner below cut: Needs 4 of the following scenarios*
      • 53 points more than the No. 22
      • 53 points more than the No. 5
      • 49 points more than the No. 24
      • 47 points more than the No. 99
      • 35 points more than the No. 14
      • 35 points more than the No. 2
      • 11 points more than the No. 45
      • 2 points more than the No. 20
    • Winner below cut: If he doesn’t win then he needs 4 of the scenarios above*