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Cup Series Playoff Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Homestead

Joey Logano made his way into the Championship 4 after a late race pass of Ross Chastain at Las Vegas. Now there are only two races left to decide who will join him starting with the lone visit to Homestead. Here is a look at the 8 playoff drivers remaining 2022 season statistics, along with ranks among drivers in 2022 with ranking through 33 races since the Chase started in 2004. We will also highlight notable streaks accomplished through the year, 2022 intermediate (1.3-1.5 miles) track statistics and Homestead statistics.

1 Seed – Joey Logano

2022 Stats
Category Statistic 2022 Rank ÂąRank Thru 33 Races
 Wins 3 T2nd T60th
 Poles 3 T2nd T34th
 Top2 5 4th T70th
 Top3 7 T4th T85th
 Top5 10 T5th T96th
 Top10 15 T5th T165th
 Stage Wins 6 T3rd T18th*
 Stage T10s 44 1st 18th*
 Stage Pts 262 2nd T21st*
 Playoff Pts² 21 2nd T18th*

ÂąSince Playoffs started in 2004
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017

  • Playoff Statistics this year
  • 1 Win, 2 Poles, 2 Top 2, 2 Top 3, 3 Top 5, 3 Top 10, 1 Stage Wins, 10 Stage Top 10’s, 61 Stage Points, 6 Playoff Points earned in a race
  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 2 straight Top 3 finishes
  • 4 straight Top 10 finishes
  • 2022 Intermediate Stats
  • 9 Races, Avg. Finish 9.44, Best 1st, Worst 20th, Led 8.40% of laps run, 2 Wins, 2 Poles, 3 Top 3’s, 4 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 6 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 1 Stage Win, 75 Stage Pts
  • Homestead Statistics
  • 2021 Homestead Race
  • Finished 25th, Started 2nd, Led 12 laps (4.49%), Finished 7th in Stage 1
  • Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
  • 13 Races
  • 14.77 Avg. Finish (Ranks 11th)
  • Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 39th
  • Led 5.85% of laps he’s run (% ranks 7th)
  • 1 Win, 7.69% (% ranks 5th)
  • 1 Top 3, 7.69% (% ranks 14th)
  • 4 Top 5’s, 30.77% (% ranks 6th)
  • 6 Top 10’s, 46.15% (% ranks 10th)
  • 4 times finish outside Top 20, 30.77% (% ranks 14th)
  • 1 DNF, 7.69% (% ranks 26th)
  • 6 Stage T10’s, 60.0% (% ranks 7th)
Outlook
Joey Logano as expected ran well at Las Vegas Sunday afternoon and ended up clinching himself a spot in the Championship 4 with a win. His spot is deserving as his 2022 ranks above are no lower than 5th in any category. Logano’s playoffs have been hit and miss as he has 2 Top 2’s and 3 Top 5’s, but everything else has been outside the Top 10. As far as intermediates go this year Logano has been amazing with 2 Wins and an average finish of 9.44. In addition, he hasn’t finished outside the Top 20 this year on an intermediate track. However, as far as Homestead goes the stats are not as kind to Logano. Logano finished 12th the last time here and only led 12 laps after starting 2nd. Overall Logano only has 1 Top 3 and 6 Top 10’s in 13 races here. The good news for Logano is that he is already clinched into the Championship 4 and doesn’t have to worry about Homestead. I see Logano getting few Stage Points and finishing around 10th.

2 Seed – Ross Chastain

2022 Stats
Category Statistic 2022 Rank ÂąRank Thru 33 Races
 Wins 2 T4th T94th
 Poles 0 T16th T254th
 Top2 6 3rd T57th
 Top3 8 T2nd T61st
 Top5 12 T1st T59th
 Top10 18 T2nd T77th
 Stage Wins 6 T3rd T18th*
 Stage T10s 35 6th T53rd*
 Stage Pts 224 5th T40th*
 Playoff Pts² 16 4th T30th*

ÂąSince Playoffs started in 2004
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017

  • Playoff Statistics this year
  • 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 2, 1 Top 3, 2 Top 5, 4 Top 10, 1 Stage Wins, 9 Stage Top 10’s, 55 Stage Points, 1 Playoff Point earned in a race
  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 3 straight Top 2 finishes
  • 4 straight Top 3 finishes
  • 6 straight Top 10 finishes
  • 2022 Intermediate Stats
  • 9 Races, Avg. Finish 11.33, Best 2nd, Worst 30th, Led 12.53% of laps run, 0 Wins, 2 Top 3’s, 3 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 7 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 3 Stage Wins, 111 Stage Pts
  • Homestead Statistics
  • 2021 Homestead Race
  • Finished 17th, Started 32nd, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage Points
  • Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
  • 3 Races
  • 28.33 Avg. Finish (Ranks 34th)
  • Best Finish: 17th, Worst: 35th
  • 0 Top 15’s
  • 2 times finish outside Top 20, 66.67% (% ranks 25th)
  • 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks 1st)
  • 0 Stage Top 10’s
Outlook
Ross Chastain came within a few laps of clinching his first Championship 4 appearance at Las Vegas, but it was not in the cards. As far as 2022 as a whole he has amazing stats in every category, except stages, rivaling Chase Elliott in everything from Top 2’s to Top 10’s. His playoffs though have not been as pretty with only 2 Top 5’s, but he does have 4 Top 10’s and if he can continue with Top 10’s he will probably be running for a championship at Phoenix. Chastain’s 2nd at Las Vegas was his best finish on an intermediate this year and his 5th Top 10. Even better intermediate news for Chastain is that his only finish outside the Top 20 was a DNF. As far as Homestead, last year he finished 17th in only his 3rd start here and first in good equipment so there is not much to go off of. Overall I don’t see Chastain contending for the win, but I do see him getting Stage Points and another Top 10 this year if he keeps on track.

3 Seed – Chase Elliott

2022 Stats
Category Statistic 2022 Rank ÂąRank Thru 33 Races
 Wins 5 1st T21st
 Poles 3 T2nd T34th
 Top2 8 1st T25th
 Top3 8 T2nd T61st
 Top5 12 T1st T59th
 Top10 19 1st T59th
 Stage Wins 6 T3rd T18th*
 Stage T10s 42 2nd T22nd*
 Stage Pts 266 1st 19th*
 Playoff Pts² 31 1st T9th*

ÂąSince Playoffs started in 2004
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017

  • Playoff Statistics this year
  • 1 Wins, 0 Pole, 2 Top 2, 2 Top 3, 2 Top 5, 2 Top 10, 1 Stage Wins, 6 Stage Top 10’s, 37 Stage Points, 6 Playoff Points earned in a race
  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 5 straight Top 2 finishes
  • 6 straight Top 10 finishes
  • 2022 Intermediate Stats
  • 9 Races, Avg. Finish 19.67, Best 1st, Worst 36th, Led 8.47% of laps run, 1 Win, 1 Top 3, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 4 Top 15’s, 5 Finishes out of Top 20, 3 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 63 Stage Pts
  • Homestead Statistics
  • 2021 Homestead Race
  • Finished 14th, Started 11th, Led 4 laps (1.50%), Finished 8th in Stage 1
  • Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
  • 6 Races
  • 9.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 3rd)
  • Best Finish: 2nd, Worst: 15th
  • 0 Wins
  • 1 Top 3, 16.67% (% ranks 10th)
  • 3 Top 10’s, 50.0% (% ranks 6th)
  • 6 Top 15’s, 100% (% ranks 1st)
  • 0 times finish outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks 1st)
  • 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks 1st)
  • 5 Stage Top 10’s, 50.0% (% ranks 10th)
Outlook
To say Chase Elliott was awful at Las Vegas last week is an understatement to say the least. He was atrocious. With that said he still ranks 3rd or better in every 2022 rank above, but that might not last with runs like Vegas. In the playoffs Elliott’s results have been unimpressive, especially considering he was the regular season champ. Elliott has 2 Top 2’s, but those are his only Top 10’s in the playoffs and he has gotten Stage Points in less than half the stages. Intermediate stats don’t fair much better. Elliott has an average finish of 19.67 and finished outside the Top 20 more times than inside the Top 15. In fact he either finishes inside the Top 15 or outside the Top 20 only. Good news for Elliott is that the Cup Series is headed to Homestead. While he finished 14th there last year he has an average finish of 9th and never finished worse than 15th. With this in mind, I see Elliott getting a Top 15 this week and a finish around 10th but not much else.

4 Seed – Denny Hamlin

2022 Stats
Category Statistic 2022 Rank ÂąRank Thru 33 Races
 Wins 2 T4th T94th
 Poles 3 T2nd T34th
 Top2 4 T5th T100th
 Top3 5 T6th T130th
 Top5 9 8th T132nd
 Top10 13 T11th T216th
 Stage Wins 3 T10th T46th*
 Stage T10s 28 10th T70th*
 Stage Pts 174 10th 58th*
 Playoff Pts² 13 8th 38th*

ÂąSince Playoffs started in 2004
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017

  • Playoff Statistics this year
  • 0 Wins, 0 Pole, 2 Top 2, 2 Top 3, 4 Top 5, 6 Top 10, 0 Stage Wins, 6 Stage Top 10’s, 41 Stage Points, 0 Playoff Points earned in a race
  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 2 straight Top 2 finishes
  • 5 straight Top 10 finishes
  • 2022 Intermediate Stats
  • 9 Races, Avg. Finish 9.22, Best 1st, Worst 32nd, Led 7.89% of laps run, 1 Win, 2 Poles, 3 Top 3’s, 5 Top 5’s, 7 Top 10’s, 7 Top 15’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Win, 72 Stage Pts
  • Homestead Statistics
  • 2021 Homestead Race
  • Finished 11th, Started 1st, Led 0 laps, Finished 2nd in Stage 2
  • Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
  • 17 Races
  • 10.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 5th)
  • Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 33rd
  • Led 8.66% of laps he’s run (% ranks 4th)
  • 3 Wins, 17.65% (% ranks 3rd)
  • 3 Poles, 17.65% (% ranks 1st)
  • 5 Top 3’s, 29.41% (% ranks 4th)
  • 11 Top 10’s, 64.71% (% ranks 3rd)
  • 15 Top 15’s, 88.24% (% ranks 4th)
  • 2 times finish outside Top 20, 11.76% (% ranks 7th)
  • 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks 1st)
  • 2 Stage Wins, 20.0% (% ranks 2nd)
  • 9 Stage Top 10’s, 90.0% (% ranks 2nd)
  • 4.1 Avg. Stage Points (Ranks 3rd)
Outlook
The field should be glad Denny Hamlin qualified bad at Vegas or else he might have won. His 2022 ranks above are no worse than 11th and while this isn’t great you can see why he is above the cutline when you look at his playoff stats. Hamlin has 4 Top 5’s and 6 Top 10’s in 7 playoff races, the only race Hamlin does not have a Top 10 in was the crapshoot race at the Roval. At intermediates, well he is in a Toyota so his stats are impressive. Hamlin has an average finish of 9.22, 5 Top 5’s and 7 Top 10’s in 9 races. Homestead last year brought an 11th place finish to Hamlin after he had to go to the rear for unapproved adjustments before the race, but overall his stats are scary for the field. Hamlin has 3 Wins, average finish of 10th, 11 Top 10’s and 15 Top 15’s here in only 17 starts. In addition he has gotten Stage Points in 90% of the stages here. This week I see bad news for the field and lots of Stage Points plus a Top 10 and a chance at a win for Hamlin.

5 Seed – William Byron

2022 Stats
Category Statistic 2022 Rank ÂąRank Thru 33 Races
 Wins 2 T4th T94th
 Poles 0 T16th T254th
 Top2 2 T12th T175th
 Top3 4 T10th T168th
 Top5 5 T12th T232nd
 Top10 9 T18th T297th
 Stage Wins 4 T6th T34th*
 Stage T10s 37 5th T41st*
 Stage Pts 223 6th 42nd*
 Playoff Pts² 14 T5th T34th*

ÂąSince Playoffs started in 2004
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017

  • Playoff Statistics this year
  • 0 Wins, 0 Pole, 0 Top 2, 1 Top 3, 1 Top 5, 4 Top 10, 1 Stage Wins, 10 Stage Top 10’s, 58 Stage Points, 1 Playoff Point earned in a race
  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 2 straight Top 3 finishes
  • 4 straight Top 10 finishes
  • 2022 Intermediate Stats
  • 9 Races, Avg. Finish 15.0, Best 5th, Worst 35th, Led 6.30% of laps run, 0 Wins, 0 Top 3, 1 Top 5, 4 Top 10’s, 6 Top 15’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 1 Stage Win, 76 Stage Pts
  • Homestead Statistics
  • 2021 Homestead Race
  • Finished 1st, Started 31st, Led 102 laps (38.20%), Finished 4th in Stage 1 and Won Stage 2
  • Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
  • 4 Races
  • 18.25 Avg. Finish (Ranks 17th)
  • Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 39th
  • Led 10.05% of laps he’s run
  • 1 Win, 25.0% (% ranks 1st)
  • 1 Top 5, 25.0% (% ranks 10th)
  • 2 Top 10’s, 50.0% (% ranks 6th)
  • 2 times finish outside Top 20, 50.0% (% ranks 20th)
  • 1 DNF, 25.0% (% ranks 39th)
  • 1 Stage Win, 12.5% (% ranks 3rd)
  • 5 Stage Top 10’s, 62.5% (% ranks 6th)
  • 3.63 Avg. Stage Points (Ranks 4th)
Outlook
If you ignore the 2 Wins and look at William Byron’s 2022 stats, you would say he doesn’t belong in the playoffs yet alone the Round of 8. But here he is only 6 points behind Denny Hamlin for a spot in the Championship 4. His playoff stats make it even more puzzling how he got here. He had 4 straight Top 10’s to start the playoffs but hasn’t recorded one since, he does however have 58 Stage Points and his stages are what are keeping him afloat. Intermediates just like his teammate Chase Elliott, have not been kind to Byron. He has an average finish of 15th, 1 Top 5 and only 4 Top 10’s. He does however have 6 Top 15’s, so he hasn’t been impressive but hasn’t been awful. Byron’s average finish at Homestead is a dismal 18.25 but with only 4 starts here there isn’t much to go off of. The last visit here he was the only playoff driver to finish Top 10 and he finished 1st. This weekend is hard to predict for Byron but I see a Top 15 with a finish around 10th.

6 Seed – Chase Briscoe

2022 Stats
Category Statistic 2022 Rank ÂąRank Thru 33 Races
 Wins 1 T10th T138th
 Poles 1 T8th T124th
 Top2 1 T17th T244th
 Top3 2 T16th T244th
 Top5 5 T12th T232nd
 Top10 8 T21st T330th
 Stage Wins 4 T6th T34th*
 Stage T10s 20 16th T93rd*
 Stage Pts 119 12th T77th*
 Playoff Pts² 9 10th T47th*

ÂąSince Playoffs started in 2004
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017

  • Playoff Statistics this year
  • 0 Wins, 0 Pole, 0 Top 2, 0 Top 3, 2 Top 5, 4 Top 10, 0 Stage Wins, 5 Stage Top 10’s, 23 Stage Points, 0 Playoff Points earned in a race
  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 4 straight Top 10’s (active streak)
  • 2022 Intermediate Stats
  • 9 Races, Avg. Finish 18.44, Best 4th, Worst 35th, Led 0.31% of laps run, 0 Wins, 0 Top 3’s, 3 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 4 Top 15’s, 4 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Wins, 19 Stage Pts
  • Homestead Statistics
  • 2021 Homestead Race
  • Finished 18th, Started 30th, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage Points
  • Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
  • 1 Race
  • 18.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 16th)
  • Best Finish: 18th, Worst: 18th
  • 0 Top 15’s
  • 0 times finish outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks 1st)
  • 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks 1st)
  • 0 Stage Top 10’s
Outlook
Chase Briscoe has been on a streak of good luck of late with 4 straight Top 10’s and being in a decent position to make the Championship 4 after Las Vegas. Briscoe ranks last among playoff drivers in almost every 2022 rank above and only has 23 Stage Points in the playoffs. His intermediate stats this year have not been good either with only 3 Top 10’s and 4 Top 15’s in 9 races, however like I said he has those 4 straight Top 10’s and got a Top 5 last weekend. In fact the stats say Briscoe finishes in the Top 10 only if he finishes Top 5 at intermediates. Last year at Homestead was Briscoe’s only start here and he finished 18th and got no Stage Points, so there isn’t much to go off of here for him. Based on the stats I see Briscoe struggling this weekend and probably finish outside the Top 10. But with his recent success I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up in the Top 5 at the end of the race.

7 Seed – Ryan Blaney

2022 Stats
Category Statistic 2022 Rank ÂąRank Thru 33 Races
 Wins 0 T20th T267th
 Poles 3 T2nd T34th
 Top2 1 T17th T244th
 Top3 2 T16th T244th
 Top5 10 T5th T96th
 Top10 15 T5th T165th
 Stage Wins 8 1st T11th*
 Stage T10s 40 4th T31st*
 Stage Pts 253 3rd 26th*
 Playoff Pts² 8 T11th T51st*

ÂąSince Playoffs started in 2004
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017

  • Playoff Statistics this year
  • 0 Wins, 0 Pole, 1 Top 2, 1 Top 3, 2 Top 5, 3 Top 10, 3 Stage Win, 10 Stage Top 10’s, 66 Stage Points, 3 Playoff Points earned in a race
  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 2 straight Poles
  • 2 straight Top 5 finishes
  • 4 straight Top 10 finishes
  • 2022 Intermediate Stats
  • 9 Races, Avg. Finish 16.78, Best 3rd, Worst 36th, Led 3.52% of laps run, 0 Wins, 1 Top 3, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 5 Top 15’s, 3 Finishes out of Top 20, 2 DNF’s, 2 Stage Win, 76 Stage Pts
  • Homestead Statistics
  • 2021 Homestead Race
  • Finished 29th, Started 14th, Led 0 laps, Finished 8th in Stage 2
  • Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
  • 7 Races
  • 18.86 Avg. Finish (Ranks 18th)
  • Best Finish: 3rd, Worst: 29th
  • 1 Top 3, 14.29% (% ranks 11th)
  • 1 Top 10, 14.29% (% ranks 20th)
  • 2 Top 15’s, 28.57% (% ranks 20th)
  • 3 times finish outside Top 20, 42.86% (% ranks 18th)
  • 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks 1st)
  • 0 Stage Wins
  • 5 Stage Top 10’s, 50.0% (% ranks 10th)
Outlook
After Las Vegas Ryan Blaney now holds the lead for most Stage Wins this year. Unfortunately for Blaney he does not have any race wins though. He had a shot last weekend but a spin and wreck late ruined those chances. Besides Wins, Top 2’s and Top 3’s Blaney’s stats are impressive and in the playoffs he has 66 Stage Points, the most of any driver. But again Blaney only has 3 Top 10’s, he just can’t seem to put races together in the playoffs to finish as good as he runs. At intermediates this year he’s been disappointing with only 3 Top 10’s and 5 Top 15’s in 9 races. His Homestead stats aren’t any better. Blaney finished 29th last year and overall has more finishes outside the Top 20 (3) than inside the Top 15 (2). Even the stages for Blaney aren’t great here as he has only 5 Top 10’s in 10 Stages. This weekend I see a struggle for Blaney and his fans, if he stays out of trouble I see a Top 15 but 10th is the best I see him doing.

8 Seed – Christopher Bell

2022 Stats
Category Statistic 2022 Rank ÂąRank Thru 33 Races
 Wins 2 T4th T94th
 Poles 4 1st T21st
 Top2 3 T8th T131st
 Top3 5 T6th T130th
 Top5 11 T3rd T74th
 Top10 18 T2nd T77th
 Stage Wins 4 T6th T34th*
 Stage T10s 34 T7th T55th*
 Stage Pts 196 T8th T54th*
 Playoff Pts² 14 T5th T34th*

ÂąSince Playoffs started in 2004
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017

  • Playoff Statistics this year
  • 1 Win, 1 Pole, 1 Top 2, 2 Top 3, 4 Top 5, 4 Top 10, 2 Stage Wins, 7 Stage Top 10’s, 57 Stage Points, 7 Playoff Points earned in a race
  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 3 straight Top 5 finishes
  • 5 straight Top 10 finishes
  • 2022 Intermediate Stats
  • 9 Races, Avg. Finish 12.22, Best 3rd, Worst 34th, Led 3.48% of laps run, 0 Wins, 2 Poles, 1 Top 3, 4 Top 5’s, 7 Top 10’s, 7 Top 15’s, 2 Finish out of Top 20, 2 DNF, 1 Stage Win, 67 Stage Pts
  • Homestead Statistics
  • 2021 Homestead Race
  • Finished 20th, Started 3rd, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage Points
  • Notable Homestead Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
  • 2 Races
  • 14.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 9th)
  • Best Finish: 8th, Worst: 20th
  • 0 Top 5’s
  • 1 Top 10, 50.0% (% ranks 6th)
  • 0 times finish outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks 1st)
  • 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks 1st)
  • 0 Stage Top 10’s
Outlook
Christopher Bell had a chance for the win it seemed at Las Vegas until Bubba Wallace made a fool of himself by intentionally wrecking Kyle Larson. The wreck collected Bell which is why he sits 23 points below the cutline. This is unfortunate for Bell since his 2022 stats are impressive as he ranks no worse than 8th in the 2022 ranks above. The playoffs for Bell have been impressive as well with 4 Top 5’s but also only 4 Top 10’s, essentially Bell either finishes Top 5 or outside the Top 10. Heading to another intermediate could be good for Bell as he has 4 Top 5’s and 7 Top 10’s. However, his 2 finishes outside the Top 10 have been DNF’s so if Bell can keep it on the track he gets Top 10’s. In his 2 starts here at Homestead Bell has 1 Top 10, but with the small sample size the Homestead stats don’t say much. If he can avoid any Bubba Wallace tomfoolery this weekend and stay on track I see Bell with a Top 5 this weekend and maybe contending for the win.
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Daniel Smith
Daniel Smithhttps://pitpassnetwork.com
Cup drivers: Kyle Larson & Ross Chastain, Xfinity drivers: SVG & Ryan Sieg, Truck drivers: Grant Enfinger & Jake Garcia

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