Noah Gragson is turning in quite an impressive swan song in the Xfinity Series. Through 31 races, Gragson has collected 8 wins, 19 Top-5s, and 24 Top-10s. His wins and 8.4 average finishing position has put him as the favorite to win the Xfinity Series Championship. Plus, Gragson won the Spring race at Phoenix this year. His 2022 season is the culmination of gradual progression in the Xfinity Series with JR Motorsports. Before this season, Gragson’s Xfinity Series career had been successful and the Cup Series seemed destined to be in his future. However, he was lacking the dominance one would hope for a future Cup Series star. 2022 changed that.
Though it seemed inevitable that Noah Gragson would find himself in the Cup Series one day, his dominant season has landed him a full time ride next year. Announced back in August, Noah Gragson will be driving the 42 car for Petty GMS Motorsports. He will be bringing along his current Xfinity Series crew chief Luke Lambert to Petty as well. Gragson’s call-up was likely in the planning phase when Petty GMS and Ty Dillon (current driver of the 42) mutually agreed to part ways. While he will end up starting at least 18 Cup Series races this year, it is expected that Noah Gragson will be a contender for the Rookie of the Year award in 2023.
Excitement for Gragson’s 2023 season is currently high right now. Based on his dominance in the Xfinity Series this year, there are plenty of people who hold high expectations for Gragson next year. While no reasonable person is expecting a championship, predictions range from fringe playoff driver to multiple-time winner. Even the lower expectations still see Gragson bringing the second Petty car to more relevance than Dillon is currently. It makes sense since Gragson is a fan favorite. NASCAR fans want to see Gragson succeed in the Cup Series.
Between his unique victory burnout/celebration and unfiltered interviews, Noah Gragson has established himself as a character of the sport. NASCAR needs more characters in their series, especially the Cup Series. While Ty Gibbs has been the villain of the Xfinity Series, Gragson has become the party boy antihero. Unlike Gibbs, he comes off as genuine. His over the top victory celebration feels natural for him rather than an act. He expresses his emotions candidly and is not afraid to engage other drivers when he is upset. His popularity and success is great for him, Petty GMS, Chevrolet’s development program, and NASCAR.
With all that said, people need to pump the brakes on the expectations for Noah Gragson next year. Gragson’s dominant Xfinity Series does not mean he is going to be great (or even good) next year in Cup. That does not mean he will be a bust or terrible overall. However, when was the last rookie season to remember in the Cup Series? It has been a while.
Gragson’s 2022 Cup Results
Heading into Martinsville, Noah Gragson has run in 17 Cup Series races. In those 17 races, Gragson’s average finish is 23.0. He only has one Top-10 finish, which was a fifth in the ugly Coke Zero 400. That means Gragson’s sole Top-10 finish came in a race where he putt-putted around the track all day until rain caused almost every competitive car to wreck. To put it bluntly, Noah Gragson has been bad this year.
Gragson is not running in bad equipment either. Three of his superspeedway starts have come with Beard Motorsports. While Beard Motorsports is not quality equipment, the superspeedways even out the equipment deviation of the teams. The remaining 14 starts have been with Kaulig Racing or Hendrick Motorsports. Gragson was scheduled to run 14 races for Kaulig Racing in their “trophy hunting” 16 car. Sharing the ride with Daniel Hemric and AJ Allmendinger, Gragson was going to get valuable experience in the Next Gen car. His average finish for Kaulig is 25.7. Kaulig is still developing their Cup program, but AJ Allmendinger finished third at Homestead this past weekend in the same car Gragson has been driving. The ride is not the issue there.
After Alex Bowman’s concussion, Hendrick Motorsports tabbed Gragson to fill in for the 48 car. When it comes to quality equipment, it does not get better than Hendrick equipment. His limited time in the 48 has improved his average finish (19.8 in four races). That is far from what one would hope to see out of Gragson in arguably the best equipment in NASCAR.
Now, his underwhelming performance may have to do with his caution with the Next Gen car. In an appearance on the Door Bumper Clear podcast, Gragson discussed the safety concerns with the Next Gen car. At one point, Gragson even admits to running at “90% because the hits are so hard.” Though he has a great opportunity to run in Hendrick equipment, Gragson’s focus is the Xfinity Series Championship. He would not jeopardize his chance to win the Xfinity Series Championship over the Next Gen car. It could explain his weak Cup Series stat line.
Recent Xfinity Series Standouts
As mentioned earlier, it is difficult to remember the last great rookie season in the Cup Series. It certainly has not been in the recent past though. Over the past few seasons, NASCAR has seen exciting Xfinity Series drivers move up to the Cup Series struggle in their rookie season, especially after having a season like Gragson currenlty is. Some of the drivers figure it out after the rookie season, but the rookie struggle is real.
Austin Cindric
2021 Xfinity Series Stats: 5 wins, 22 Top-5s, 26 Top-10s, Avg. Fin: 8.2
Much like Noah Gragson, Austin Cindric took a few seasons to find his dominant footing in the Xfinity Series. While he won the championship in 2020, Cindric’s better season was the 2021 season. Though he one less win than 2020, his average finish improved and he scored three more Top-5s. Also, there was not a different driver who was having a better season than him.
Out of the drivers that will be discussed, Cindric’s rookie season has been the best, though that is not saying much. Cindric won the Daytona 500 and advanced to the Round of 12 in the playoffs. Even with those accomplishments, Cindric’s 2022 has not been something to brag about. Outside the Daytona 500 win, Cindric has 4 Top-5s and 8 Top-10s. His average finish on the year is 16.1.
By no stretch is that a bad season, but it is not a great season. Cindric’s best runs come at superspeedways and road courses. Every other track he has been pedestrian. Plus, his advancement in the playoffs was more down to Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick having their cars break on them rather than his accomplishments. Austin Cindric’s Daytona 500 win will be immortalized, but the rest of his rookie season will be forgotten.
Chase Briscoe
2020 Xfinity Series Stats: 9 wins, 16 Top-5s, 22 Top-10s, Avg Fin: 8.4
From the best of the bunch to the worst. Chase Briscoe’s rookie season was a disaster for himself and Stewart-Haas Racing. In 2021, Briscoe failed to secure a single Top-5 finish. His average finish was 19.6 and he only finished on the lead lap 18 times. While SHR as a whole took a giant step back in 2021, Briscoe’s rookie year was dreadful.
Similar to Gragson, Briscoe was a fan favorite from the Xfinity Series. There were high expectations for Briscoe heading into his rookie season. That Darlington race alone where he out-raced Kyle Busch for the win was enough to convince people he would perform well in the Cup Series. There were expectations that Briscoe would make the playoffs or win at least one race. The closest Briscoe came to winning a race was spinning Denny Hamlin out at the Indy Road Course while under penalty.
Totaling only three Top-10s in a rookie season is a disaster for a driver. Fortunately for Briscoe, he has turned it around this year. Heading into Martinsville, he is still fighting for a birth into the Championship Four.
2020 Rookies: Cole Custer, Tyler Reddick, & Christopher Bell
Cole Custer 2019 Xfinity Stats: 7 wins, 17 Top-5s, 24 Top-10s, Avg Fin: 9.0
Perhaps the one bust of the drivers mentioned here, Cole Custer was underwhelming in his rookie season. That has not changed since that season though (to the point where SHR cannot agree about bringing him back). Custer won Rookie of the Year over Reddick and Bell, but that was only because he won at Kentucky. Other than his win, his rookie season was not worthy of the award. An average finish of 19.2 in top tiered equipment was not the expectation from the driver who thrived in the lower series. Remember, Kevin Harvick won 9 times in SHR equipment that season. The unfortunate thing for Custer, SHR, and Ford is that his 2020 has been his best season of his career.
Tyler Reddick 2019 Xfinity Series Stats: 6 wins, 24 Top-5s, 27 Top-10s, Avg Fin: 6.3
The 2019 Xfinity Series Champion saw a bit more consistency than Custer in 2020. Tyler Reddick tallied 3 Top-5s and 9 Top-10s in his rookie campaign. His average finish of 17.5 was the best for all rookies in 2020. If not for Custer’s win (and berth into the playoffs), Reddick would have been Rookie of the Year. Much like everybody else mentioned here, there were lofty expectations for Reddick heading into his rookie season. Though those expectations were tapered a bit due to RCR’s standing as a “B” tier team, Reddick still seemed to disappoint.
Christopher Bell 2019 Xfinity Series Stats: 8 wins, 20 Top-5s, 21 Top-10s, Avg Fin: 9.1
In terms of wins, Christopher Bell had two dominating seasons in the Xfinity Series. Between 2018 and 2019, Bell racked up 15 trophies for JGR. However, Toyota’s lack of rides left Bell driving for an underfunded team in Levine Racing. Unsurprisingly, Bell’s rookie season was the worst between the three rookies mentioned. In severely lesser equipment, Bell managed to scrap 2 Top-5s and 7 Top-10s together. Though, he impressed enough to replace Erik Jones in the 20 JGR car.
For the 2020 rookies, the obvious argument to be made for their poor performance is COVID. COVID eliminated practices when the season returned from hiatus. For a rookie, practice is very important to help with getting accustomed with the changes from Xfinity to Cup. For Noah Gragson, practice has returned but it is still highly limited. How much value is there in a twenty-minute practice? Could that change in the offseason? Hopefully so.
Petty GMS is Still Mid-Tiered
One can argue that Noah Gragson’s 2022 Cup Series results do not matter since he going after the Xfinity Series Championship. His focus is not solely on his Cup results. An argument can be made that Gragson will break the mediocre rookie season to have a standout one (or at least replicate Cindric’s decent season). It could surely happen if Gragson can demonstrate his driving talents as he has this year in Xfinity. Those are points that can be made to support the higher expectations for Noah Gragson. However, the defeating counter argument is that Petty GMS Motorsports is still a middle tiered team.
While Noah Gragson is the better driver, Ty Dillon is not showing much speed in the 42. His average finish is 22.2. That is lower than his average finish in 2017 and 2019 when he was driving for Germain Racing. Meanwhile, Erik Jones in the primary car is having a decent season. However, it is resembling Austin Cindric’s season. One win and a 16.2 average finish is almost a match of Cindric’s season. Main difference is that Cindric’s win was before the playoff cutoff.
Both Petty GMS cars have been mid-pack cars for the majority of the season. Jones will have the occasional great run where he mixes it up near the Top-5. Those runs have become fewer as the season has gone on though. Jones normally hovers between eighth and fifteenth. Meanwhile, Dillon is normally in the twenties every week. Gragson might be a better driver than Dillon, but it is doubtful the equipment will take a massive step forward to see Gragson consistently running in the Top-10.
Could Noah Gragson have a fantastic rookie season? Of course he could. He has talent, the Next Gen car (or whatever it will be called next year) has seen more parity, Chevrolet is invested in him, and he has Cup Series experience already. However, it should not be an expectation for him to run strongly next year. The most likely outcome of his rookie season is a handful of Top-10s. At best, Gragson pulls out a fluke win at superspeedway or randomly runs strong to a win at an intermediate track. For Noah Gragson fans, keep the expectations in check for the young driver.
