On Thursday, Kevin Harvick officially announced his upcoming retirement after the 2023 season. After reports surfaced late Wednesday night, Harvick and Stewart-Haas Racing left little time in making the news official. While sad, the news is not surprising. Many were penciling 2023 as Harvick’s last full time season in the Cup Series. A full-time driver since 2001, Harvick’s long career will likely end with a first ballot Hall of Fame selection.
Related: Gregory Latham on Kevin Harvick’s Career
Stewart-Haas Racing will be left with a huge spot to fill once Kevin Harvick retires. Plus, Aric Almirola’s future is up in the air after he was supposed to retire after last season. Even with the thought of two open spots, the Kevin Harvick sized hole in SHR’s lineup is an important spot to fill. While SHR has not been the same dominate force since the end of 2020, their Fords are still top tier rides. For most drivers, going to SHR would be an upgrade to their current team.
When examining the pool of suitors for Kevin Harvick’s replacement, it is a damning reflection of Ford’s poor developmental plans. There is no obvious choice to pick from the Ford camp. For Stewart-Haas Racing, the question is whether they pick from the internal Ford options or go after a free agent during silly season. Who will SHR choose to replace Kevin Harvick?
From the Fords
Since 2017, Stewart-Haas Racing has driven Fords. Two of their most recent driver changes involved bringing in a Ford Development driver to the Cup Series. In their past, SHR has plucked notable free agents to join their ranks. That list includes the now retiring Kevin Harvick. Will SHR continue to rely on what is in the Ford network?
Riley Herbst
Riley Herbst is entering his third full-time season in SHR’s 98 Xfinity ride. In his Xfinity career thus far, he was no wins, 17 Top-5s, and averages a 15.4 finish. 2022 was his best season, racking up 8 Top-5s, 20 Top-10s, and nabbing a pole at Nashville. Though Herbst was able to put the 98 car in the Top-10 more frequently last year, he never was a true threat to win anything. In 2020, Chase Briscoe won 8 races in that car. In two full seasons since, Herbst has not sniffed a win.
Many site backing from Monster Energy as the only reason Herbst remains with SHR. His performance on track is not turning any heads. At best, Herbst runs Top-10 throughout a race and can contend for a Top-5. Compared to the two previous SHR Xfinity call-ups, Herbst does not stack up. Even with Cole Custer’s Cup Series struggles, there was expectation he would do well since he dominated the Xfinity Series with 7 wins in 2019. Chase Briscoe progressed into a winning machine in the 98 car. Herbst has progressed into a Top-10 driver in an Xfinity field that is limited on competitive cars. For Ford’s lone developmental team in Xfinity, that is not good enough.
Odds of Replacing Kevin Harvick: Very Low
What an underwhelming (and outraging) choice Riley Herbst would be to replace Kevin Harvick. To be fair, he would be an underwhelming option to replace Aric Almirola. Herbst has not demonstrated the talent to give anyone expectations that he would succeed in the Cup Series. Now, he could go out in 2023 and turn his career around. If he is able to rack up some wins and be a championship contender, then that would be great for him. Barring something strange happening though, Riley Herbst will not be driving a Cup car for SHR in 2024.
Cole Custer
Who wants more Cole Custer? The fact that Cole Custer is a legitimate option to replace Kevin Harvick is, once again, a damning statement on the developmental strategy at Ford. Cole Custer was booted from his Cup Series ride in favor of Ryan Preece. Outside of a fluke Kentucky win, Custer’s Cup career was a dumpster fire. Last season, Custer finished 25th in points. That put him behind two drivers who were docked 100 points in penalties. Even with his bad performance, Tony Stewart had to debate Gene Haas about demoting Custer. If not for familial connections, it would not have been surprising if Custer was booted from SHR completely.
With all that said, Cole Custer has an opportunity to rebuild his career. He is returning to a series where he has won 10 races. Last season, he ran five Xfinity races where he collected a win and 3 Top-10s. Custer is a championship favorite for the Xfinity title. In one season, Custer can change the aura around him. Sure, his current Cup Series statistics will hover over him. However, this reset could help him improve in the Cup Series moving forward.
Odds of Replacing Kevin Harvick: Low
In terms of replacing Kevin Harvick, there is a slim chance that Cole Custer is picked. If Almirola retires too, then there is a good shot Custer returns to Cup. It is doubtful that Ford or SHR (specifically Haas) is ready to throw in the towel on Custer. Even without the nepotism, Ford does not have a lot to offer from within currently. Custer will only be 25 years old in 2023. He has time to rebound. He might be a driver that needs this humbling experience to spark something at the Cup Series level. If SHR fails to land another driver, Custer could be the guy to replace Harvick. But he is the last resort.
Harrison Burton/Todd Gilliland
Both Harrison Burton and Todd Gilliland are driving on year-to-year contracts. With the teams their racing for, that is not a surprise. Wood Brothers took a gamble on calling Harrison Burton up from the Xfinity Series. Understanding it was going to be a project, Wood Brothers will surely be patient with Burton. Though his 2022 was not great, he did show flashes of talent.
The same could be said for Todd Gilliland. Front Row called him up to the Cup Series straight from the Truck Series. Expectations out of the gate for Gilliland were not high for 2022. Much like Burton, it was a rough season with some glimmers of bright spots. Both drivers need to take a step forward in their development in 2023. Expectations will be moderately low for both. No one is expecting a playoff appearance from either. However, they should combine for more than 4 Top-10s.
Odds of Replacing Kevin Harvick: Low
Much like Cole Custer, it is not likely SHR will choose either of these drivers. Wood Brothers will likely hold on to Burton as long as he develops in 2023. Front Row has time invested in Gilliland. He is the first driver to return for a second season in the 38 car since David Ragan. The odds are not impossible that either of these drivers are picked. Once again, it is a last resort option rather than a first, second, or fifth choice.
Zane Smith
Out of the Ford drivers, this is the most interesting candidate. Zane Smith is the best prospect Ford has to offer right now. Coming off a Truck Series championship, Smith looks to be a great talent in the system. Front Row announced last season that Smith would run some Cup races in 2023, including attempting to qualify for the Daytona 500. Plus, Smith is defending his title in the Truck Series. With how well Smith has performed in trucks, it would not be implausible for him to skip Xfinity all together.
When it comes to Smith, the question is about Front Row. Outside of adding a third car to their roster, there is not an open spot in the Cup Series. Front Row is the type of team that does year-to-year contracts. Notorious for their late announcements, it was surprising when their Cup lineup was known in December. In theory, both rides are currently available for 2024. However, barring stagnation from Gilliland, it is doubtful Front Row will pull the plug on him. Meanwhile, Michael McDowell is the face of the team. Unless he wants out, McDowell will driving the 34 as long as he wants.
Odds of Replacing Kevin Harvick: Moderate
If Stewart-Haas wants to continue using Ford Development drivers for their rides, Zane Smith would be the best option. In three full truck seasons, Smith has 7 wins and finished no worse than second in points. His resume has been impressive so far. Plus, Smith made his Cup Series debut at WWT Raceway filling in for Chris Buescher last season. On short notice, Smith was able to pilot the 17 Mustang to a respectable 17th.
The only question about Zane Smith is how much could Front Row do to stop a move. Front Row will have a third part time Cup Series car for 2023. Could they look to expand to three teams to accommodate Smith? If SHR offers Smith a ride, how could Front Row lure him away from the better Ford team? While Smith is the best option within the Ford camp currently, SHR will likely feel out the Cup free agent market first.
Free Agents with Other Manufacturers
With the limited options under the Ford name, Stewart-Haas Racing will likely go into the free agent pool to replace Kevin Harvick. According to Bob Pockrass, there are fifteen Cup Series drivers who are not signed for 2024. Of those fifteen, nine are from non-Ford teams. That does include any Xfinity drivers who could potentially receive a shout from SHR. However, when looking at SHR’s past, they like to go after big name free agents.
Ross Chastain
After a career season, Ross Chastain is currently not locked up for 2024 with Trackhouse Racing. Technically, neither driver is but Daniel Suarez would not return to SHR, who booted him out in favor of Cole Custer. Chastain had a breakout season in 2022, both statistically and in terms of media recognition. Chastain was a household name for casual NASCAR fans. Between his aggressive driving style and the “hail melon” at Martinsville, Chastain strapped a rocket to his value.
If Ross Chastain is able to repeat his on track performance from last year, he will be one of the hottest free agents on the market. However, Trackhouse will likely be motivated to retain their best driver. Chastain and Trackhouse feel tightly linked together, arguably more than Suarez. Justin Marks has been a vocal defender of Chastain against his critics. The team owner appreciates the aggressive style that ruffles feathers. It would be interesting to see if Trackhouse would allow other teams to negotiate with the man responsible for their first two wins as an organization. It would not be surprising if they announced an extension by the time Daytona rolls around.
Odds to Replace Kevin Harvick: Moderate
At this point, is switching from Trackhouse to SHR a smart move for Ross Chastain? Chastain outran Kevin Harvick the entire 2022 season. On paper, Trackhouse heading into 2023 is the second best Chevrolet team. While SHR has history of being a top tier team, the past two seasons have not reflected that. In 2022, SHR only had two of their cars in the playoffs. Harvick bad lucked his way out early. Chase Briscoe put together an impressive run in the playoffs, but his regular season statistics were mediocre. Meanwhile, Chastain drove the most consistent car in the field.
If SHR could draw interest from Chastain, it would start something of a bidding war. How far would SHR be willing to go to nab Chastain? On the flip side, how far would Trackhouse go to keep him? Are Chastain’s sponsors with him or Trackhouse? As with any silly season topic, there is plenty to speculate about. Based on the information on hand today, it would be doubtful to see Ross Chastain leave Trackhouse. After a tumultuous path to get the Cup Series, Chastain might enjoy consistency by staying with the team. With SHR likely being a potential suitor though, Chastain could use them as leverage in talks with Trackhouse. It will be something to keep an eye on.
Alex Bowman
Alex Bowman feels like the odd man out at Hendrick Motorsports. Currently, he is the only driver not signed through the 2023 season. Ally is also only signed through this year. If Ally leaves Bowman, where does that leave the driver with Hendrick Motorsports?
For whatever reason, Alex Bowman has felt like the odd duck at Hendrick Motorsports. He was not a hot prospect like Chase Elliott or William Byron. He was not a coveted free agent like Kyle Larson. Instead, he was a journeyman driver that Dale Earnhardt Jr handpicked to replace him. In five seasons with Hendrick, Bowman has been successful. Collecting 7 wins and making the playoffs each season, Bowman is pulling his weight. However, he has only made it past the Round of Twelve once.
The issue seems to be that Alex Bowman is not a “Hendrick” guy. Rather, he is a “Jr” guy. Bowman has proven that he deserves his seat. However, that does not mean he will keep it. Hendrick could look to swap Bowman out for a Chevy development driver, like Sam Mayer, or a young Chevy Cup Series driver, like Noah Gragson. Either way, Bowman would be the driver out of a ride.
Odds to Replace Kevin Harvick:Â High
Out of the list Bob Pockrass, Alex Bowman is the most notable driver who likely will leave or lose their current ride. Chastain leaving Trackhouse is a massive question mark. While some could argue the same for Bowman, the lack of secured sponsorship for 2024 plus the only driver at Hendrick Motorsports not to sign an extension last year speaks volumes. Alex Bowman looks to be on the way out Hendrick Motorsports.
If Alex Bowman is available, Stewart-Haas Racing should make him the prime target. Not only has he been a winning Cup Series driver since joining Hendrick, he has had to replace Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jimmie Johnson. Putting Bowman in the 4 Mustang would not rattle him. He has experience jumping into a Hall of Famer’s car. For Alex Bowman, if he no longer is with Hendrick Motorsports, SHR is the best option available that will have an open spot. Joe Gibbs Racing might have an open spot (or two), but that seems destined for John Hunter Nemecheck. After SHR, the next best ride might be at Kaulig Racing.
Stewart-Haas Racing signing Alex Bowman is the best decision SHR could make in the current climate. Ross Chastain will probably resign with Trackhouse. Every other potential free agent is either retiring, staying put, or not the caliber worthy of replacing Kevin Harvick. Names like Corey LaJoie and Ty Dillon are not getting that ride. Alex Bowman is the name that makes the most sense. Calling it now: Alex Bowman to SHR for 2024.
