With The Clash having come and gone, NASACR is focused on the start of the regular season. Once the Super Bowl is over, NASCAR can take center stage for some racing at Daytona International Speedway. The 2023 season will be an intriguing one, for the on-track product and silly season. Before The Clash, the first bit of silly season action occurred with Chase Briscoe signing an extension with Stewart-Haas Racing.
For 2023, new faces are in new places with major names switching teams. How will Kyle Busch fare with RCR? Can Tyler Reddick keep up his performance in a 23XI car? Is Ryan Preece going to prove that the 41 struggles were down to driver rather than machine?
A new season also means predictions for the year. The entire crew at Pit Pass Network already submitted their 2023 picks for the racing season. For these predictions though, the takes are going to bold. What constitutes a “bold prediction”? In order for a prediction to be considered bold, it must be unexpected from the majority of the NASCAR audience, have a seemingly slim chance of happening, but yet still be realistic. With that said, here are the bold predictions for the 2023 NASCAR season.
NASCAR Lower Series
Carson Hocevar Will Lead the Truck Series in Wins
Carson Hocevar has been close multiple times to securing his first Truck Series win. He has finished second four times and third three times. In multiple races, Hocevar has been leading late before bad luck, bad decisions, or simply getting beat has happened. For many, the expectation is that Hocevar will breakthrough in 2023 with at least one win. With the departures of John Hunter Nemechek and Chandler Smith, there are less proven race winners in the field.
While one win is expected, not many are expecting Hocevar to lead the series. Especially with reigning champion Zane Smith returning, the odds are not likely that Hocevar is the dominate driver in a truck in 2023. However, Hocevar does run well at a variety of tracks on the schedule. He has shown speed at intermediates, short tracks, and superspeedways. While Niece has taken a step back in performance, it has not hurt Hocevar as much as his teammates. Plus, Ross Chastain won last year driving for the team. Snagging four or five wins is not out of question for Hocevar.
Toyota Goes Winless in Trucks
Toyota is in a bit of a weird place in NASCAR. At the Cup Series, 23XI Racing is an exciting team with two young drivers. Meanwhile, Joe Gibbs Racing is looking like a mixed bag (in terms of their future). With the departure of Kyle Busch Motorsports and ThorSport Racing from the manufacturer, Toyota had to turn to Tricon Garage as their primary Truck Series team. At Tricon, the driver lineup is less than thrilling (other than Corey Heim). Meanwhile, the Toyota Truck Series camp is rounded off by Stuart Freisen and Tyler Ankrum.
Outside of Stuart Freisen, who is the clear cut winner for Toyota in 2023? Ankrum has yet to find victory lane. The Gray brothers have not shown enough to expect wins. Corey Heim is an intriguing prospect, but will Tricon be the equivalent to KBM? It is feasible to see how the turnover for Toyota in the Truck Series might prove difficult for success. Though Freisen and Heim might prove this prediction wrong, it would not be surprising to see Toyota go winless in 2023.
Longshot Driver to Make Xfinity Championship Four
The Xfinity Series has been the most entertaining series in NASCAR for the past few seasons. Even with the limited amount of potential winners each week, the series normally is the best show of the weekend. Heading into 2023, that does not appear to be changing. However, there has been a reshuffle of the lineup. Three of the top five in points last year will no longer be running the Xfinity Series. Kaulig Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, JR Motorsports, and Stewart Haas Racing have all made at least one driver change to their lineup.
With the powerhouse teams in transition, 2023 seems to be the perfect season to see a dark horse team sneak into the Championship Four. There are plenty of suitors for that role. Jordan Anderson Racing has shown promise over the past two seasons. Sam Hunt Racing could be a contender with Toyota backing. Parker Kligerman is a fan favorite to turn heads this year. Ryan Sieg and Jeremy Clements remain relatively competitive with the big teams.
Out of the contenders from this group, the bold prediction here is that Kaz Grala will shock the Xfinity Series and race for a championship come Phoenix.
NASCAR Cup Series
AJ Allmendinger Makes the Round of Eight
A popular prediction is penciling in AJ Allmendinger to make the Cup Series playoffs in his return to the Cup Series. It makes a lot of sense. With five road courses during the regular season, Allmendinger is almost a shoo-in to win a race before the playoffs, especially considering he will be one of few to have street circuit experience for the Chicago race in the summer.
Although many are expecting a playoff appearance, there have not been many predictions seeing Allmendinger advance far into the playoffs. However, an appearance in the Round of Eight makes a lot of sense for Allmendinger. AJ could breeze his way through the first round. In the Round of Twelve, Allmendinger could advance via win at the ROVAL. Even if he does not win the ROVAL, Allmendinger is an underrated pack racer. Two solid finishes in this round could be enough to push AJ into the Round of Eight without a win. As long as Allmendinger’s regular season is solid, a spot in the Round of Eight is easily within reach.
Both RFK Racing Entries Advance to Round of Twelve
Well this is bold after The Clash. Last season, RFK Racing underwhelmed, especially Brad Keselowski. Chris Buescher did come close to victory during the regular season at Sonoma and Richmond. However, the lack of consistency prevented Buescher and RFK from being a competitive team. Heading into 2023, it would be a massive success to have one RFK Racing entry in the playoffs.
With the current structure of the playoffs, it would not be unreasonable to foresee both RFK drivers making the playoffs. Even with his lack of speed, Keselowski is still a threat at superspeedways. Like road courses, there are five superspeedway races during the regular season. Keselowski could punch his ticket there. Meanwhile, based on last year, Buescher could grab a win at a road course, short track, or superspeedway as well. There is more optimism when it comes to Buescher at the moment.
When it comes to the first round of the playoffs, both RFK drivers have at least moderate success at each track. If last year is any indication though, advancing through the first round might be more about survival rather than speed. RFK Racing could surprise NASCAR fans in 2023 with a strong season after a disappointing 2022.
Joe Gibbs Racing Only Wins with Christopher Bell
Once again, the results of The Clash seem to spit in the face of this prediction. However, that exhibition race does not count toward the win total for the year. While Martin Truex Jr won The Clash, he failed to do so in 2022. Denny Hamlin managed two wins last season, but his overall speed and consistency was down. Ty Gibbs is a rookie who should not be expected to find victory lane. That leaves Christopher Bell as the only JGR driver who looks consistently strong heading into the 2023 season.
With the unknown future of Hamlin and Truex, it would be logical that Bell becomes driver one at JGR. Bell was JGR’s representative in the Championship Four last year. He won back-to-back elimination races to do so as well. Bell could have his breakout season where he wins five-plus races. Meanwhile, Hamlin and Truex might continue to struggle with the NextGen car. To be fair, the two did not set the world afire last season. Truex could not close out races (despite winning the most stages in 2022) and Hamlin looked off outside the races he won. Plus, Toyota could push JGR to focus on the young talent rising up to be competitive for years to come.
PROJECT91 Will Win a Race
Trackhouse Racing is the most exciting Cup Series team. After a fantastic season from both drivers in 2022, Trackhouse is hitting 2023 with expectation and anticipation. One of the more intriguing elements of Trackhouse Racing is their PROJECT91 car. Debuting at Watkins Glenn with Kimi Raikkonen, the team announced that the car will be entered in at least six races for 2023. While there was hope that PROJECT91 would attempt the Daytona 500, Trackhouse announced it was going to focus on the road courses with their third entry.
Assuming PROJECT91 runs every road course race, the expectation is Trackhouse is going to get highly talented drivers to wheel the car. Will Raikkonen return to the car? How about Justin Marks? Some fans have the pipedream of a current F1 star like Lewis Hamilton taking a turn in NASCAR. The possibilities are tantalizing to consider. With how Trackhouse operates itself, it would be weird to not see an exciting name drive for them.
After 2022, Trackhouse proved it could compete with the top teams. Arguably, they established themselves as the second best Chevy team. With race winning speed, a talented selection to drive PROJECT91 could spell victory. It would be quite the accomplishment for Trackhouse. But if there was one team to do it, it would be them.
Rick Ware Racing Sells Both Charters
What is the game plan for Rick Ware Racing? The team has held onto at least two charters for the past three seasons. Has their performance on track been improving? Not really. Cody Ware, the lone fulltime driver for Rick Ware, managed an average finish of 27.8 in 2022. His lone Top-10 came when the entire field wrecked during the summer Daytona race. Meanwhile, the 15 car only breaks the Top-20 at superspeedways. Both Rick Ware entries are moving chicanes on the race track.
With little progress thus far and no path to competitiveness, the decision to let go of the charters might be the best decision for Rick Ware. Financially, it is time to sell as the value of the charters is at an all-time high. Ware could make a pretty profit off of the sale of his two charters. There would be multiple suitors for those charters, with 23XI Racing and Dale Earnhardt Jr springing to mind immediately. The bidding war would only push the price higher. If Ware sells the charters, he could use the money to focus on his IndyCar operation that is also middling. A sale of both charters would be financially smart and beneficial to NASCAR to get more competitive cars on track.
