William Byron used a questionable caution late to propel himself to the victory in overtime last week in Las Vegas. This week we are on to the track that hosts the 2023 Championship Race, Phoenix. I have picked 8 notable drivers to look at, 1 based on the 2023 point standings, 2 based on 2023 stats, 2 based on Small Track stats, 1 based on the last Phoenix race and 2 based on their overall Phoenix stats. Here is a look at those 8 notable drivers 2023 season statistics, along with ranks among drivers in 2023 with ranking through 3 races since the Chase started in 2004. We will also highlight notable streaks accomplished through the year, 2022 Small track (1-1.3 mile) statistics and Phoenix statistics.
1st in Points – Ross Chastain
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 3 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 8.0 | 3rd of 36 | T59th of 803 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 100% | T1st of 36 | T1st of 803 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 74.82% | 8th of 36 | 127th of 761‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 101.47 | 2nd of 36 | T77th of 761‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T4th of 42 | T55th of 944 |
| Poles | 0 | T3rd of 42 | T53rd of 944 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T7th of 42 | T100th of 944 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T1st of 42 | T29th of 944 |
| Top 5’s | 1 | T3rd of 42 | T62nd of 944 |
| Top 10’s | 2 | T3rd of 42 | T38th of 944 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 42 | T1st of 944 |
| Stage Wins | 3 | 1st of 42 | T1st of 307* |
| Stage T10s | 5 | T1st of 42 | T9th of 307* |
| Stage Pts | 42 | 1st of 42 | 5th of 307* |
| Playoff Pts² | 3 | 4th of 42 | T21st of 307* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 3 races
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2022 Small Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate Track start, 42 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 4.8(1st), 89.11% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 100.64(5th), Best 2nd, Worst 8th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 5.48% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 3 Top 3’s, 3 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 5 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 2.6 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2022 Phoenix Championship Race
- Finished 3rd, Started 25th, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 292 Laps in Top15 (93.59% of laps he ran), had 98.0 Driver Rating
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 9 Races
- 18.56 Avg. Finish (Ranks 18th)
- Best Finish: 2nd, Worst: 28th
- Completed 99.5% of laps (% ranks 12th)
- 31.24% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 21st)
- 62.16 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 22nd)
- Led 0.0% of laps he’s run
- 0 Wins
- 1 Top 2, 11.11% (% ranks 8th)
- 2 Top 3’s, 22.22% (% ranks 8th)
- 3 Top 15’s, 33.33% (% ranks T18th)
- 5 finishes outside Top 20, 55.56% (% ranks 26th)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 1 Stage Top 10, 5.56% (% ranks 20th)
Outlook
Ross Chastain is notable because of his really good stats on Small tracks last year. Last week in Las Vegas Chastain ran well all race but ultimately finished 12th after the overtime restart didn’t go well. On the season Chastain has completed every lap in route to an 8.0 Avg. Finish, good for 3rd best, and a 101.47 Avg. Driver Rating, good for 2nd best. What is also helping Chastain out this year is his stage stats as he has the most Stage Wins (3), Stage Pts (42), and is tied for the most Stage T10’s (5). Based on how Chastain did on Small tracks last year these stats may only get better. In the 5 races he sported the best Avg. Finish at 4.8 and did so without getting a win. However he did have 3 Top 3’s, 5 Top 10’s and a worst finish of only 8th. Despite the success Chastain still had the 5th best Avg. Driver Rating in those 5 races and only scored 2.6 Stage Pts Per Stage. This tells me he may have shown up late for a good finish more so than having a good race. Last year in the Championship Race here Chastain finished 3rd but led 0 laps and got 0 Stage T10’s, he did however run over 90% of the laps in the Top 15. Overall here Chastain has 9 races with only 2 Top 5’s, but both came last year. Still, his 18.56 Avg. Finish isn’t good and the fact he only has 1 Stage Top 10 leaves reason to be concerned. This weekend I don’t expect to see Chastain up front a ton, but toward the back of the Top 10 and finish somewhere between 7th and 15th.
Ross Chastain is notable because of his really good stats on Small tracks last year. Last week in Las Vegas Chastain ran well all race but ultimately finished 12th after the overtime restart didn’t go well. On the season Chastain has completed every lap in route to an 8.0 Avg. Finish, good for 3rd best, and a 101.47 Avg. Driver Rating, good for 2nd best. What is also helping Chastain out this year is his stage stats as he has the most Stage Wins (3), Stage Pts (42), and is tied for the most Stage T10’s (5). Based on how Chastain did on Small tracks last year these stats may only get better. In the 5 races he sported the best Avg. Finish at 4.8 and did so without getting a win. However he did have 3 Top 3’s, 5 Top 10’s and a worst finish of only 8th. Despite the success Chastain still had the 5th best Avg. Driver Rating in those 5 races and only scored 2.6 Stage Pts Per Stage. This tells me he may have shown up late for a good finish more so than having a good race. Last year in the Championship Race here Chastain finished 3rd but led 0 laps and got 0 Stage T10’s, he did however run over 90% of the laps in the Top 15. Overall here Chastain has 9 races with only 2 Top 5’s, but both came last year. Still, his 18.56 Avg. Finish isn’t good and the fact he only has 1 Stage Top 10 leaves reason to be concerned. This weekend I don’t expect to see Chastain up front a ton, but toward the back of the Top 10 and finish somewhere between 7th and 15th.
2nd in Points – Alex Bowman
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 3 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 5.33 | 1st of 36 | T22nd of 803 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 100% | T1st of 36 | T1st of 803 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 81.11% | 2nd of 36 | 87th of 761‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 98.73 | 4th of 36 | 93rd of 761‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T4th of 42 | T55th of 944 |
| Poles | 1 | T1st of 42 | T3rd of 944 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T7th of 42 | T100th of 944 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T1st of 42 | T29th of 944 |
| Top 5’s | 2 | T1st of 42 | T12th of 944 |
| Top 10’s | 3 | T1st of 42 | T1st of 944 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 42 | T1st of 944 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T4th of 42 | T28th of 307* |
| Stage T10s | 5 | T1st of 42 | T9th of 307* |
| Stage Pts | 31 | 2nd of 42 | T15th of 307* |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T6th of 42 | T40th of 307* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 3 races
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 3 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak)
- 2022 Small Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate Track start, 42 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 20.2(26th), 65.45% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 69.68(19th), Best 5th, Worst 35th, Laps Completed 80.57%, Led 0.24% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 3 Top 15’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Wins, 1.4 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2022 Phoenix Championship Race
- Finished 34th, Started 24th, Led 1 laps (0.32%), got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 27 Laps in Top15 (8.88% of laps he ran), had 55.8 Driver Rating
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 15 Races
- 23.8 Avg. Finish (Ranks 27th)
- Best Finish: 6th, Worst: 41st
- Completed 94.5% of laps (% ranks 25th)
- 40.05% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 18th)
- 68.19 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 20th)
- Led 4.48% of laps he’s run (% ranks 9th)
- 0 Top 5’s
- 1 Top 10, 6.67% (% ranks 24th)
- 5 Top 15’s, 33.33% (% ranks T18th)
- 8 finishes outside Top 20, 53.33% (% ranks 25th)
- 3 DNF’s, 20.0% (% ranks T31st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 5 Stage Top 10’s, 25.0% (% ranks T15th)
Outlook
Alex Bowman is notable because he has the best stats on the 2023 season. Last weekend Bowman challenged late for the Win but wound up 3rd behind two of his teammates. This year Bowman has the best Avg. Finish at 5.33, the 4th best Avg. Driver Rating at 98.73, and the 2nd best percentage of laps ran in the Top 15 at 81.11%. In addition Bowman is the only driver to have 2 Top 5’s and 3 Top 10’s, and he has the 2nd most Stage Pts with 31. The good news stops here though as at Small tracks last year Bowman averaged a 20.2 finish in 5 races and only ran 65.45% of his laps inside the Top 15. His best finish in the 5 races was 5th, which was his only Top 10, and he only had 3 Top 15’s with his other finishes being outside the Top 20. One of the finishes outside the Top 20 was at the season finale where he finished 34th and only ran 8.88% of his laps inside the Top 15. Some of the reason for this could have been that this was his first race back from a concussion though. Still his overall stats here aren’t good either. In 15 races he has only 1 Top 10 and 5 Top 15’s with 8 finishes outside the Top 20 leading to a 23.8 Avg. Finish. In addition his Avg. Driver Rating is 20th best among actives and he’s only ran 40.05% of his laps in the Top 15. With all these stats it is hard to see Bowman having a good run and I see him finishing outside the Top 10, but 2023 has been kind to him so maybe he gets that 2nd Top 10 here at Phoenix.
Alex Bowman is notable because he has the best stats on the 2023 season. Last weekend Bowman challenged late for the Win but wound up 3rd behind two of his teammates. This year Bowman has the best Avg. Finish at 5.33, the 4th best Avg. Driver Rating at 98.73, and the 2nd best percentage of laps ran in the Top 15 at 81.11%. In addition Bowman is the only driver to have 2 Top 5’s and 3 Top 10’s, and he has the 2nd most Stage Pts with 31. The good news stops here though as at Small tracks last year Bowman averaged a 20.2 finish in 5 races and only ran 65.45% of his laps inside the Top 15. His best finish in the 5 races was 5th, which was his only Top 10, and he only had 3 Top 15’s with his other finishes being outside the Top 20. One of the finishes outside the Top 20 was at the season finale where he finished 34th and only ran 8.88% of his laps inside the Top 15. Some of the reason for this could have been that this was his first race back from a concussion though. Still his overall stats here aren’t good either. In 15 races he has only 1 Top 10 and 5 Top 15’s with 8 finishes outside the Top 20 leading to a 23.8 Avg. Finish. In addition his Avg. Driver Rating is 20th best among actives and he’s only ran 40.05% of his laps in the Top 15. With all these stats it is hard to see Bowman having a good run and I see him finishing outside the Top 10, but 2023 has been kind to him so maybe he gets that 2nd Top 10 here at Phoenix.
3rd in Points – Kevin Harvick
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 3 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 8.67 | 4th of 36 | T69th of 803 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 100% | T1st of 36 | T1st of 803 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 80.67% | 3rd of 36 | 90th of 761‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 89.23 | 9th of 36 | 170th of 761‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T4th of 42 | T55th of 944 |
| Poles | 0 | T3rd of 42 | T53rd of 944 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T7th of 42 | T100th of 944 |
| Top 3’s | 0 | T10th of 42 | T147th of 944 |
| Top 5’s | 1 | T3rd of 42 | T62nd of 944 |
| Top 10’s | 2 | T3rd of 42 | T38th of 944 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 42 | T1st of 944 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T4th of 42 | T28th of 307* |
| Stage T10s | 4 | T4th of 42 | T23rd of 307* |
| Stage Pts | 18 | T7th of 42 | T49th of 307* |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T6th of 42 | T40th of 307* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 3 races
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak)
- 2022 Small Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate Track start, 42 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 11.6(6th), 93.33% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 96.9(7th), Best 5th, Worst 33rd, Laps Completed 99.36%, Led 0.00% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 2 Top 5’s, 4 Top 10’s, 4 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Wins, 3.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2022 Phoenix Championship Race
- Finished 5th, Started 7th, Led 0 laps, Finished 8th in Stage 1 and 5th in Stage 2, ran 312 Laps in Top15 (100% of laps he ran), had 106.9 Driver Rating
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 40 Races
- 8.65 Avg. Finish (Ranks 1st)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 34th
- Completed 99.83% of laps (% ranks T5th)
- 85.84% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 3rd)
- 110.26 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 1st)
- Led 13.34% of laps he’s run (% ranks 1st)
- 9 Wins, 22.5% (% ranks 2nd)
- 12 Top 2’s, 30.0% (% ranks 1st)
- 19 Top 5’s, 47.5% (% ranks 2nd)
- 29 Top 10’s, 72.5% (% ranks 1st)
- 4 finishes outside Top 20, 10.0% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 1 Stage Win, 4.17% (% ranks T9th)
- 20 Stage Top 10’s, 83.33% (% ranks 2nd)
- 4.54 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 2nd)
Outlook
Kevin Harvick is notable because of mind-blowing statistics at Phoenix. Last week at Las Vegas Harvick once again carried SHR on his back and finished 9th. In total Harvick is the only bright spot at SHR as he has a 2 Top 10’s to his teammates total of 0, in fact Harvick’s Avg. Finish is 8.67 (ranks 4th) while next best at SHR is 24.0 by Aric Almirola. A lot of this success can be found due to Harvick spending 80.67% of his laps inside the Top 15 this year, the 3rd best percentage of anyone. Last year in 5 Small track races he had an 11.6 Avg. Finish (6th best), 2 Top 5’s, and 4 Top 10’s. Harvick also had the 7th best Avg. Driver Rating at 96.9 and ran 93.33% of his laps inside the Top 15. Unfortunately for Harvick his best finish was only 5th, and he didn’t lead a single lap in those 5 races. Good news is one of the Top 5’s for him was at the Championship Race in Phoenix where he finished 5th, had the 5th best Driver Rating at 106.9, and ran all 312 laps inside the Top 15. This is child’s play though when looking at his overall stats at Phoenix, nearly every Phoenix stat above ranks 1st or 2nd. In fact in 40 starts his 8.65 Avg. Finish, 110.26 Avg. Driver Rating, 13.34% of laps led, and 72.5% Top 10 rate all rank 1st among active drivers. While this isn’t the Phoenix Harvick got most of those numbers at last year proves he can still get it done here. I look for him to run Top 10 most the race, finish Top 5, and challenge for the win even.
Kevin Harvick is notable because of mind-blowing statistics at Phoenix. Last week at Las Vegas Harvick once again carried SHR on his back and finished 9th. In total Harvick is the only bright spot at SHR as he has a 2 Top 10’s to his teammates total of 0, in fact Harvick’s Avg. Finish is 8.67 (ranks 4th) while next best at SHR is 24.0 by Aric Almirola. A lot of this success can be found due to Harvick spending 80.67% of his laps inside the Top 15 this year, the 3rd best percentage of anyone. Last year in 5 Small track races he had an 11.6 Avg. Finish (6th best), 2 Top 5’s, and 4 Top 10’s. Harvick also had the 7th best Avg. Driver Rating at 96.9 and ran 93.33% of his laps inside the Top 15. Unfortunately for Harvick his best finish was only 5th, and he didn’t lead a single lap in those 5 races. Good news is one of the Top 5’s for him was at the Championship Race in Phoenix where he finished 5th, had the 5th best Driver Rating at 106.9, and ran all 312 laps inside the Top 15. This is child’s play though when looking at his overall stats at Phoenix, nearly every Phoenix stat above ranks 1st or 2nd. In fact in 40 starts his 8.65 Avg. Finish, 110.26 Avg. Driver Rating, 13.34% of laps led, and 72.5% Top 10 rate all rank 1st among active drivers. While this isn’t the Phoenix Harvick got most of those numbers at last year proves he can still get it done here. I look for him to run Top 10 most the race, finish Top 5, and challenge for the win even.
4th in Points – Daniel Suarez
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 3 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 7.0 | 2nd of 36 | T44th of 803 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 100% | T1st of 36 | T1st of 803 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 60.76% | 12th of 36 | 210th of 761‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 88.6 | 10th of 36 | 181st of 761‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T4th of 42 | T55th of 944 |
| Poles | 0 | T3rd of 42 | T53rd of 944 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T7th of 42 | T100th of 944 |
| Top 3’s | 0 | T10th of 42 | T147th of 944 |
| Top 5’s | 1 | T3rd of 42 | T62nd of 944 |
| Top 10’s | 3 | T1st of 42 | T1st of 944 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 42 | T1st of 944 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T4th of 42 | T28th of 307* |
| Stage T10s | 2 | T10th of 42 | T75th of 307* |
| Stage Pts | 14 | T10th of 42 | T66th of 307* |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T6th of 42 | T40th of 307* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 3 races
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 3 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak)
- 2022 Small Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate Track start, 42 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 15.8(15th), 31.99% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 65.98(21st), Best 9th, Worst 24th, Laps Completed 99.94%, Led 0.00% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 2 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 0.4 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2022 Phoenix Championship Race
- Finished 24th, Started 28th, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 0 Laps in Top15 (0% of laps he ran), had 50.5 Driver Rating
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 12 Races
- 19.5 Avg. Finish (Ranks 20th)
- Best Finish: 7th, Worst: 36th
- Completed 94.03% of laps (% ranks 26th)
- 18.89% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 23rd)
- 60.49 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 23rd)
- Led 0.0% of laps he’s run
- 0 Top 5’s
- 3 Top 10’s, 25.0% (% ranks 16th)
- 4 Top 15’s, 33.33% (% ranks T18th)
- 7 finishes outside Top 20, 58.33% (% ranks 27th)
- 1 DNF, 8.33% (% ranks 20th)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 0 Stage Top 10’s
Outlook
Daniel Suarez is notable because of his being 4th in the point standings. Last week Suarez had a decent race and at the end of the day wound up 10th. This was his 3rd Top 10 of the season and only him and Alex Bowman have a Top 10 in every race thus far. This and his 1 Top 5 have given him a 7.0 Avg. Finish, 2nd behind only Bowman. Despite this Suarez has only ran 60.76% of his laps inside the Top 15 (12th best) and his Avg. Driver Rating is 88.6 (10th best). When looking at the Small track stats from last year Suarez isn’t flashy either, his best finish was 9th in the 5 races and his Avg. Finish was 15.8, good for 15th best. His Top 15% also was not good as he ran only 32% of his laps inside the Top 15, and he only had 3 Top 15’s with 0.4 Stage Pts Per Stage. The Championship Race in Phoenix was the worst of these races for Suarez as he finished 24th, had a 50.5 Driver Rating, and ran 0 laps inside the Top 15. The overall stats here at Phoenix for Suarez aren’t pretty either as in 12 races his best finish is 7th. His Avg. Finish of 19.5 ranks 20th, and his 60.49 Avg. Driver Rating ranks 23rd. Then there is the fact only 18.89% of his laps have been run in the Top 15 with him having more finishes outside the Top 20 than in the Top 15, and he has 0 Stage T10’s too. Looking to this weekend I don’t see much good for Suarez, I see him struggling to a finish outside the Top 10 ending his streak, but I do see a finish 11th-15th.
Daniel Suarez is notable because of his being 4th in the point standings. Last week Suarez had a decent race and at the end of the day wound up 10th. This was his 3rd Top 10 of the season and only him and Alex Bowman have a Top 10 in every race thus far. This and his 1 Top 5 have given him a 7.0 Avg. Finish, 2nd behind only Bowman. Despite this Suarez has only ran 60.76% of his laps inside the Top 15 (12th best) and his Avg. Driver Rating is 88.6 (10th best). When looking at the Small track stats from last year Suarez isn’t flashy either, his best finish was 9th in the 5 races and his Avg. Finish was 15.8, good for 15th best. His Top 15% also was not good as he ran only 32% of his laps inside the Top 15, and he only had 3 Top 15’s with 0.4 Stage Pts Per Stage. The Championship Race in Phoenix was the worst of these races for Suarez as he finished 24th, had a 50.5 Driver Rating, and ran 0 laps inside the Top 15. The overall stats here at Phoenix for Suarez aren’t pretty either as in 12 races his best finish is 7th. His Avg. Finish of 19.5 ranks 20th, and his 60.49 Avg. Driver Rating ranks 23rd. Then there is the fact only 18.89% of his laps have been run in the Top 15 with him having more finishes outside the Top 20 than in the Top 15, and he has 0 Stage T10’s too. Looking to this weekend I don’t see much good for Suarez, I see him struggling to a finish outside the Top 10 ending his streak, but I do see a finish 11th-15th.
6th in Points – Denny Hamlin
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 3 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 11.33 | T6th of 36 | T112th of 803 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 100% | T1st of 36 | T1st of 803 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 90.48% | 1st of 36 | 34th of 761‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 101.77 | 1st of 36 | 74th of 761‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T4th of 42 | T55th of 944 |
| Poles | 0 | T3rd of 42 | T53rd of 944 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T7th of 42 | T100th of 944 |
| Top 3’s | 0 | T10th of 42 | T147th of 944 |
| Top 5’s | 0 | T14th of 42 | T229th of 944 |
| Top 10’s | 1 | T7th of 42 | T156th of 944 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 42 | T1st of 944 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T4th of 42 | T28th of 307* |
| Stage T10s | 4 | T4th of 42 | T23rd of 307* |
| Stage Pts | 20 | 5th of 42 | T45th of 307* |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T6th of 42 | T40th of 307* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 3 races
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- none
- 2022 Small Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate Track start, 42 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 16.4(16th), 57.25% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 82.3(12th), Best 6th, Worst 34th, Laps Completed 99.24%, Led 4.3% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 2 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 1.8 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2022 Phoenix Championship Race
- Finished 8th, Started 21st, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 223 Laps in Top15 (71.47% of laps he ran), had 84.7 Driver Rating
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 35 Races
- 10.54 Avg. Finish (Ranks 3rd)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 35th
- Completed 99.42% of laps (% ranks 13th)
- 74.31% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 10th)
- 98.6 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 5th)
- Led 7.86% of laps he’s run (% ranks 8th)
- 2 Wins, 5.71% (% ranks 8th)
- 11 Top 3’s, 31.43% (% ranks 1st)
- 16 Top 5’s, 45.71% (% ranks T3rd)
- 27 Top 15’s, 77.14% (% ranks 5th)
- 5 finishes outside Top 20, 14.29% (% ranks 4th)
- 1 DNF, 2.86% (% ranks T14th)
- 2 Stage Wins, 8.33% (% ranks T5th)
- 3.17 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks T8th)
Outlook
Denny Hamlin is notable because of how good his Laps in Top15% and Avg. Driver Rating stats are this year. Last week Hamlin ran near the front most the day, but on the overtime restart he fell back outside the Top 10 to 11th. This year Hamlin’s 90.48 Laps in Top15% and 101.77 Avg. Driver Rating both rank 1st, but he only has 1 Top 10 to show for it. Still his Avg. Finish of 11.33 ranks 6th, showing that he isn’t have that bad of a season just isn’t getting Top 10’s to show for it. If you look at his Small track stats from last year don’t expect this to change much either as in the 5 races his Avg. Finish was 16.4 and he only had 2 Top 10’s. Further proof is that only 57.25% of Hamlin’s laps were ran inside the Top 15 leading to an 82.3 Avg. Driver Rating and only 1.8 Stage Pts Per Stage. The good news for Hamlin is that one of these better races came at Phoenix last November where he finished 8th after running 71.47% of the laps that he ran in the Top 15. This percentage is about average for Hamlin as in 35 races he’s spent 74.31% of his laps inside the Top 15 and even has an Avg. Finish of 10.54 (ranks 3rd). In all he has 2 Wins here and his 31.43 Top 3% is the best of any active driver, and his 98.6 Avg. Driver Rating ranks 5th. Overall I see Hamlin as a lock for a Top 10 this week unless bad luck continues to strike. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins, but I think he will end up between 3rd and 9th with some Stage Pts as well.
Denny Hamlin is notable because of how good his Laps in Top15% and Avg. Driver Rating stats are this year. Last week Hamlin ran near the front most the day, but on the overtime restart he fell back outside the Top 10 to 11th. This year Hamlin’s 90.48 Laps in Top15% and 101.77 Avg. Driver Rating both rank 1st, but he only has 1 Top 10 to show for it. Still his Avg. Finish of 11.33 ranks 6th, showing that he isn’t have that bad of a season just isn’t getting Top 10’s to show for it. If you look at his Small track stats from last year don’t expect this to change much either as in the 5 races his Avg. Finish was 16.4 and he only had 2 Top 10’s. Further proof is that only 57.25% of Hamlin’s laps were ran inside the Top 15 leading to an 82.3 Avg. Driver Rating and only 1.8 Stage Pts Per Stage. The good news for Hamlin is that one of these better races came at Phoenix last November where he finished 8th after running 71.47% of the laps that he ran in the Top 15. This percentage is about average for Hamlin as in 35 races he’s spent 74.31% of his laps inside the Top 15 and even has an Avg. Finish of 10.54 (ranks 3rd). In all he has 2 Wins here and his 31.43 Top 3% is the best of any active driver, and his 98.6 Avg. Driver Rating ranks 5th. Overall I see Hamlin as a lock for a Top 10 this week unless bad luck continues to strike. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins, but I think he will end up between 3rd and 9th with some Stage Pts as well.
8th in Points – Kyle Busch
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 3 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 11.33 | T6th of 36 | T112th of 803 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 99.85% | T7th of 36 | T170th of 803 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 78.33% | 4th of 36 | 108th of 761‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 91.5 | 7th of 36 | 146th of 761‡ |
| Wins | 1 | T1st of 42 | T7th of 944 |
| Poles | 0 | T3rd of 42 | T53rd of 944 |
| Top 2’s | 1 | T1st of 42 | T19th of 944 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T1st of 42 | T29th of 944 |
| Top 5’s | 1 | T3rd of 42 | T62nd of 944 |
| Top 10’s | 1 | T7th of 42 | T156th of 944 |
| DNF’s¹ | 1 | T18th of 42 | T492nd of 944 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T4th of 42 | T28th of 307* |
| Stage T10s | 2 | T10th of 42 | T75th of 307* |
| Stage Pts | 11 | 12th of 42 | T82nd of 307* |
| Playoff Pts² | 5 | T2nd of 42 | T9th of 307* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 3 races
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- none
- 2022 Small Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate Track start, 42 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 7.0(2nd), 75.8% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 100.98(4th), Best 2nd, Worst 12th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 10.76% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 1 Top 5, 4 Top 10’s, 5 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 2.2 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2022 Phoenix Championship Race
- Finished 7th, Started 22nd, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 170 Laps in Top15 (59.49% of laps he ran), had 84.3 Driver Rating
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 35 Races
- 10.63 Avg. Finish (Ranks 4th)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 38th
- Completed 98.14% of laps (% ranks 15th)
- 85.33% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 4th)
- 102.78 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 4th)
- Led 11.1% of laps he’s run (% ranks 3rd)
- 3 Wins, 8.57% (% ranks 5th)
- 4 Poles, 11.43% (% ranks 2nd)
- 7 Top 2’s, 20.0% (% ranks T3rd)
- 10 Top 3’s, 28.57% (% ranks T3rd)
- 25 Top 10’s, 71.43% (% ranks 2nd)
- 6 finishes outside Top 20, 17.14% (% ranks 6th)
- 1 DNF, 2.86% (% ranks T14th)
- 3 Stage Wins, 12.5% (% ranks 3rd)
- 18 Stage Top 10, 75.0% (% ranks 4th)
- 4.75 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 1st)
Outlook
Kyle Busch is notable because of how he has ran at Phoenix in his 35 starts. Last week I think people expected more from Busch and the 8 team, but in the end he finished 14th. This year Busch has been good as he has the 7th best Avg. Driver Rating at 91.5, 4th best Laps in Top15% at 78.33%, and T6th best Avg. Finish at 11.33. Oh, he also has 1 Win, but that is his only Top 10. Heading into this week there is reason to be optimistic based off Busch’s Small track stats last year. In 5 races Busch had the 2nd best Avg. Finish at 7.0 and 4th best Avg. Driver Rating at 100.98. In addition his worst finish was 12th, he ran every lap, he led 10.76% of the laps, and had 4 Top 10’s. His Avg. Finish in these 5 races matched his finish at Phoenix in November as he finished 7th while having a 84.3 Driver Rating for the race. However, Busch only ran 60% of his laps inside the Top 15 which could be a tad concerning. That said there is nothing concerning about Busch’s stats here though as all but two of his Phoenix stats above rank 6th or better. He has a 10.63 Avg. Finish here in 35 starts with 10 Top 3’s and 25 Top 10’s to 6 finishes outside the Top 20. Busch has also ran 85.33% of his laps in the Top 15 and has the most Stage Pts Per Stage at 4.75. In all the stats say this weekend with be a success for Busch and considering the 8 car almost won here last Spring I say he will be a force to be reckon with finishing Top 5 and maybe ending up with a win.
Kyle Busch is notable because of how he has ran at Phoenix in his 35 starts. Last week I think people expected more from Busch and the 8 team, but in the end he finished 14th. This year Busch has been good as he has the 7th best Avg. Driver Rating at 91.5, 4th best Laps in Top15% at 78.33%, and T6th best Avg. Finish at 11.33. Oh, he also has 1 Win, but that is his only Top 10. Heading into this week there is reason to be optimistic based off Busch’s Small track stats last year. In 5 races Busch had the 2nd best Avg. Finish at 7.0 and 4th best Avg. Driver Rating at 100.98. In addition his worst finish was 12th, he ran every lap, he led 10.76% of the laps, and had 4 Top 10’s. His Avg. Finish in these 5 races matched his finish at Phoenix in November as he finished 7th while having a 84.3 Driver Rating for the race. However, Busch only ran 60% of his laps inside the Top 15 which could be a tad concerning. That said there is nothing concerning about Busch’s stats here though as all but two of his Phoenix stats above rank 6th or better. He has a 10.63 Avg. Finish here in 35 starts with 10 Top 3’s and 25 Top 10’s to 6 finishes outside the Top 20. Busch has also ran 85.33% of his laps in the Top 15 and has the most Stage Pts Per Stage at 4.75. In all the stats say this weekend with be a success for Busch and considering the 8 car almost won here last Spring I say he will be a force to be reckon with finishing Top 5 and maybe ending up with a win.
9th in Points – Joey Logano
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 3 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 16.0 | 13th of 36 | 239th of 803 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 87.12% | 28th of 36 | 639th of 803 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 75.7% | 7th of 36 | 123rd of 761‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 93.53 | 5th of 36 | 130th of 761‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T4th of 42 | T55th of 944 |
| Poles | 1 | T1st of 42 | T3rd of 944 |
| Top 2’s | 1 | T1st of 42 | T19th of 944 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T1st of 42 | T29th of 944 |
| Top 5’s | 1 | T3rd of 42 | T62nd of 944 |
| Top 10’s | 2 | T3rd of 42 | T38th of 944 |
| DNF’s¹ | 1 | T18th of 42 | T492nd of 944 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T4th of 42 | T28th of 307* |
| Stage T10s | 3 | T8th of 42 | T49th of 307* |
| Stage Pts | 19 | 6th of 42 | 48th of 307* |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T6th of 42 | T40th of 307* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 3 races
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2022 Small Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate Track start, 42 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 12.6(T8th), 73.55% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 98.44(6th), Best 1st, Worst 29th, Laps Completed 99.68%, Led 15.21% of laps he ran, 2 Wins, 1 Pole, 2 Top 3’s, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 1.4 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2022 Phoenix Championship Race
- Finished 1st, Started 1st, Led 187 laps (59.94%), Finished 1st in Stage 1 and 2nd in Stage 2, ran 312 Laps in Top15 (100% of laps he ran), had 143.8 Driver Rating
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 28 Races
- 12.68 Avg. Finish (Ranks 8th)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 37th
- Completed 96.16% of laps (% ranks 20th)
- 77.52% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 6th)
- 96.5 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 7th)
- Led 10.81% of laps he’s run (% ranks 4th)
- 3 Wins, 10.71% (% ranks 4th)
- 2 Poles, 7.14% (% ranks T4th)
- 7 Top 3’s, 25.0% (% ranks T5th)
- 16 Top 10’s, 57.14% (% ranks T7th)
- 7 finishes outside Top 20, 25.0% (% ranks 12th)
- 4 DNF’s, 14.29% (% ranks T25th)
- 5 Stage Wins, 20.83% (% ranks 1st)
- 17 Stage Top 10’s, 70.83% (% ranks 5th)
- 3.17 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks T8th)
Outlook
Joey Logano is notable because of last years Championship Race here at Phoenix. Last week Logano was having a subpar day compared to how he usually does at Vegas, then he got in a wreck that ended his day and relegated him to last place becoming only the 42nd driver in Cup history to start first and finish last. This really hurt Logano’s Avg. Finish for the year as it now sits at 16.0, but his Avg. Driver Rating is still a respectable 93.53 (ranks 5th).The good news for Logano is 75% of his laps he’s ran in the Top 15 and he has 2 Top 10’s that sit him 9th in points. Up next is a Small track where Logano basically either won or finished outside the Top 20 last year. In 5 races he had 2 Wins and led 15.21% of laps he ran, but he also had 2 finishes outside the Top 20 and only 1 Stage Win. That one Stage Win came in the most important race though, the Championship Race. In this race Logano led nearly 60% of the race in route to winning the race and the 2022 Championship. Logano had a Driver Rating that day of 143.8 and ran all 312 laps inside the Top 15 including 1st to end Stage 1 and 2nd to end Stage 2. This was his 3rd Win at Phoenix which gives him a 10.71 winning% (4th best), in addition Logano has 5 Stage Wins in which his 20.83% ranks 1st. In all the stats say Logano will finish Top 10 and run well most the day, and at the end of the day that’s what I see, running up front and coming home in the Top 5.
Joey Logano is notable because of last years Championship Race here at Phoenix. Last week Logano was having a subpar day compared to how he usually does at Vegas, then he got in a wreck that ended his day and relegated him to last place becoming only the 42nd driver in Cup history to start first and finish last. This really hurt Logano’s Avg. Finish for the year as it now sits at 16.0, but his Avg. Driver Rating is still a respectable 93.53 (ranks 5th).The good news for Logano is 75% of his laps he’s ran in the Top 15 and he has 2 Top 10’s that sit him 9th in points. Up next is a Small track where Logano basically either won or finished outside the Top 20 last year. In 5 races he had 2 Wins and led 15.21% of laps he ran, but he also had 2 finishes outside the Top 20 and only 1 Stage Win. That one Stage Win came in the most important race though, the Championship Race. In this race Logano led nearly 60% of the race in route to winning the race and the 2022 Championship. Logano had a Driver Rating that day of 143.8 and ran all 312 laps inside the Top 15 including 1st to end Stage 1 and 2nd to end Stage 2. This was his 3rd Win at Phoenix which gives him a 10.71 winning% (4th best), in addition Logano has 5 Stage Wins in which his 20.83% ranks 1st. In all the stats say Logano will finish Top 10 and run well most the day, and at the end of the day that’s what I see, running up front and coming home in the Top 5.
15th in Points – Ryan Blaney
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 3 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 15.67 | 12th of 36 | T227th of 803 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 99.41% | T13th of 36 | T299th of 803 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 50.51% | 15th of 36 | 276th of 761‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 76.9 | 16th of 36 | 298th of 761‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T4th of 42 | T55th of 944 |
| Poles | 0 | T3rd of 42 | T53rd of 944 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T7th of 42 | T100th of 944 |
| Top 3’s | 0 | T10th of 42 | T147th of 944 |
| Top 5’s | 0 | T14th of 42 | T229th of 944 |
| Top 10’s | 1 | T7th of 42 | T156th of 944 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 42 | T1st of 944 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T4th of 42 | T28th of 307* |
| Stage T10s | 1 | T16th of 42 | T115th of 307* |
| Stage Pts | 9 | T14th of 42 | T93rd of 307* |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T6th of 42 | T40th of 307* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 3 races
²Earned from races only
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- none
- 2022 Small Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Intermediate Track start, 42 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 10.8(4th), 67.05% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 101.56(3rd), Best 2nd, Worst 26th, Laps Completed 99.75%, Led 17.37% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 1 Pole, 1 Top 3, 3 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 3 Stage Wins, 4.9 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Phoenix Statistics
- 2022 Phoenix Championship Race
- Finished 2nd, Started 2nd, Led 109 laps (34.94%), Finished 2nd in Stage 1 and 1st in Stage 2, ran 312 Laps in Top15 (100% of laps he ran), had 128.3 Driver Rating
- Notable Phoenix Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 14 Races
- 12.64 Avg. Finish (Ranks 7th)
- Best Finish: 2nd, Worst: 37th
- Completed 92.55% of laps (% ranks 28th)
- 87.34% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 1st)
- 97.93 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 6th)
- Led 10.57% of laps he’s run (% ranks 5th)
- 0 Wins
- 3 Poles, 21.43% (% ranks 1st)
- 1 Top 2, 7.14% (% ranks 12th)
- 5 Top 5’s, 35.71% (% ranks T5th)
- 9 Top 10’s, 64.29% (% ranks T3rd)
- 3 finishes outside Top 20, 21.43% (% ranks T9th)
- 2 DNF’s, 14.29% (% ranks T25th)
- 4 Stage Wins, 16.67% (% ranks 2nd)
- 4.38 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 3rd)
Outlook
Ryan Blaney is notable because of how well he did on Small tracks last year. Last week Blaney was a little disappointing but came on late only to get shuffled on the final restart outside the Top 10 and finish 13th. This year hasn’t exactly started out well for Blaney as he has a 15.67 Avg. Finish with only 1 Top 10 finish. Furthermore Blaney only has 9 Stage Pts, his 50.51 Laps in Top15% ranks 15th, and his 76.9 Avg. Driver Rating ranks 16th. This is completely different from how he ran on Small tracks last year though. In 5 starts Blaney averaged a 10.8 finish (4th best) and had a 101.56 Avg. Driver Rating (3rd best). However Blaney did only run 67.05% of his laps in the Top 15 and while he had 3 Top 5’s those were also his only Top 15’s showing he went big or went home. What really intrigues me about Blaney at Small tracks was the fact he led 17.37% of the laps he ran and had 4.9 Stage Pts Per Stage. His best Small race was at Phoenix in November where he finished and started 2nd while leading over 30% of the race. This was Blaney’s best finish at Phoenix, but he does have 3 Poles so he does have speed. In addition he has a 12.64 Avg. Finish and has ran 87.34% of his laps inside the Top 15. All this together seems like Blaney could have his best race of the year and Based on his Small track and Phoenix stats I see Blaney running up front a lot. In the end I think Blaney will be in contention at very least if not win the race.
Ryan Blaney is notable because of how well he did on Small tracks last year. Last week Blaney was a little disappointing but came on late only to get shuffled on the final restart outside the Top 10 and finish 13th. This year hasn’t exactly started out well for Blaney as he has a 15.67 Avg. Finish with only 1 Top 10 finish. Furthermore Blaney only has 9 Stage Pts, his 50.51 Laps in Top15% ranks 15th, and his 76.9 Avg. Driver Rating ranks 16th. This is completely different from how he ran on Small tracks last year though. In 5 starts Blaney averaged a 10.8 finish (4th best) and had a 101.56 Avg. Driver Rating (3rd best). However Blaney did only run 67.05% of his laps in the Top 15 and while he had 3 Top 5’s those were also his only Top 15’s showing he went big or went home. What really intrigues me about Blaney at Small tracks was the fact he led 17.37% of the laps he ran and had 4.9 Stage Pts Per Stage. His best Small race was at Phoenix in November where he finished and started 2nd while leading over 30% of the race. This was Blaney’s best finish at Phoenix, but he does have 3 Poles so he does have speed. In addition he has a 12.64 Avg. Finish and has ran 87.34% of his laps inside the Top 15. All this together seems like Blaney could have his best race of the year and Based on his Small track and Phoenix stats I see Blaney running up front a lot. In the end I think Blaney will be in contention at very least if not win the race.
