Austin Hill is off to a hot start in the Xfinity Series this season. Hill has tallied up three victories in the first five races of 2023. On Saturday, Hill dominated the race at Atlanta Motor Speedway and held on to the lead after a green-white-checkered finish. Sunday’s victory brings Hill’s career Xfinity Series wins to five. His worst finish on the year is a seventh at Auto Club. That has his average finishing position sitting at a staggering 3.2. At this point in the Xfinity Series season, Austin Hill is the front runner for the championship.
While five races is only a fraction of the season, Hill has been running solidly for Richard Childress Racing since his callup in 2022. Along with Sheldon Creed, Austin Hill was brought in to RCR for a two car operation. Many had higher hopes for Creed, the younger of the two and a former champion in the Truck Series. However, Hill has been the standout while Creed has been a disappointment. In 2022, Hill won two races, made the playoffs, and advanced to the Round of Eight. Meanwhile, Creed missed the playoffs and managed only a 17.5 average finish. Clearly, Hill is establishing himself as the better prospect.
Considering Hill’s current form in the Xfinity Series, it would not be a stretch to assume Hill can bring home the championship. His toughest competition looks to be Chandler Smith, John Hunter Nemechek, and Jr Motorsports (if they can get out of their own way). Hill’s victory at Las Vegas came at the expense of Chandler Smith, who lost the lead with two laps to go after leading the majority of laps. If Austin Hill were to win the championship this year, would it make sense for Hill to return to the Xfinity Series next year?
Checking the Resume
Under the assumption Austin Hill continues running this strongly, a trip to the Championship Four seems to be a safe bet. Even if Hill does not win the championship, a second season collecting multiple wins will give him a resume worthy enough of a call up. In 2022, Hill averaged an 11.0 finish while finishing in the Top-10 21 times. Although his two wins came at superspeedways, his Top-5 finishes were at a variety of tracks. Hill collected a Top-5 at every type of track on the schedule. Plus, he only had two DNFs.
Austin Hill’s resume continues to impress when considering his Truck Series career. Running for Hattori Racing, Hill was a constant front runner. In 2020, he won the regular season championship. In his four fulltime seasons, Hill won eight times: five at intermediate ovals, one on a superspeedway, one at a road course, and one dirt race at Knoxville. The biggest knock against Hill in the Truck Series is his lack of Championship Four appearances.
Due to his current Xfinity Series success on the drafting tracks, there is a narrative that Hill is only a great superspeedway driver. While Hill might be the best superspeedway driver in the secondary series, he is far from a one trick pony. Of his eleven Top-5s in 2022, only three came at superspeedways. The remaining eight were at road courses, short tracks, and intermediates. In the Truck Series, his best track type (by average finish) was road courses. The man has talent behind the wheel, more than simply being “lucky” in the draft.
Criticisms of Austin Hill
While Austin Hill’s resume is solid, that does not equal future Cup Series success. Look at the recent call-ups to the Cup Series to find evidence of that. Cole Custer seemed like a sure thing when he was called up. Now, he is being outran by Riley Herbst after a demotion from the Cup Series. Noah Gragson is off to a tough start to the season after a dominate 2022. Despite warnings to tamp down expectations, Gragson has failed to live up to his Xfinity Series hype thus far. Chase Briscoe has struggled more than he has thrived. Austin Hill could easily find himself in similar company.
As mentioned earlier, a major criticism one could levy at Austin Hill would be consistently missing the Championship Four. Even in 2020 as regular season champion, Hill could not pilot his truck into competing for the championship. Now, bad luck played a major factor in each season from 2019 to 2021. Hill wrecked out at Martinsville in 2019, blew an engine at the same track in 2020, and then switched it up to wreck out at Talladega in 2021. Each incident took Hill essentially out of contention for the Championship Four. However, one could argue that Hill still could have secured a spot by winning rather than trying to point his way in.
Switching to examining his 2022 season, Hill’s 11 Top-5s look solid on paper. However, those Top-5s did not equate to race winning speed. After removing the superspeedways, Hill only led eighteen laps in his eight Top-5 finishes. While finishing strongly is important, running well should matter also. Hill simply did not demonstrate championship contending speed in 2022. Is his 2023 hot streak due to Hill (or RCR) developing or the exodus of top talent from the Xfinity Series? Now that Gragson, Ty Gibbs, and AJ Allmendinger are gone, Hill is rising up. Would that be the case if those three drivers were still around?
Older Prospect
By the end of the 2023 season, Austin Hill be 29-years old. In NASCAR prospect age, Hill is old. When FOX released their top prospect list, they mentioned this year would be Hill’s last on the list due to age. Approaching 30 before running a fulltime Cup season is a daunting consideration for Cup Series teams. Hill will not have the same leeway given to him as a Ty Gibbs or Noah Gragson. Cup Series teams can be patient with those drivers; they have time to watch them work it out since they are younger. Hill does not have that luxury. If he does not gain success quickly, he can be dropped back down soon after he is called up.
That is not to say Austin Hill will fail simply due to his age. Other drivers have been older when they were called up and turned out successful Cup Series career. The best example is Greg Biffle. Biffle was 33 when he ran his rookie season in the Cup Series. It is safe to say that Biffle had a successful career. The question of age for Hill is not about how well he can drive a car. Rather, it is about how long of leash will a Cup Series team give him during his adjustment period.
Cup Success or Xfinity for Life?
Between the challenges of the NextGen car and recent struggles of almost every callup, it is difficult to confidently predict how Austin Hill will fare in the Cup Series. Hill ran one race for RCR in 2022 at Michigan, where he finished a respectable eighteenth. With Beard Motorsports, Hill failed to qualify for the 2023 Daytona 500 after Travis Pastrona collected him in a wreck. Safe to say there is a limited sample size from his Cup Series career.
Based on his resume and talent, Austin Hill should find steady success in the Cup Series (depending on who he drives for). If Hill is able to drive for a B-tiered team (or above), at worst his career would be similar to Ricky Stenhouse Jr. As potential floor, that is not bad. No matter who Hill drives for in the Cup Series, he will be competitive on the superspeedways. What he has shown in the Xfinity Series at that track type is impressive. While some may disagree, there is a skill to working the draft and finishing well at superspeedways. Even when Hill loses the lead and falls back in the pack, he is always able to drive his way to the front.
If Hill lands with the right team, his career might be similar to Clint Bowyer’s: a perennial playoff driver who nabs a win here or there. That would be a successful career. More importantly, it would keep him out of a demotion back to the Xfinity Series.
Finding Austin Hill’s 2024 Cup Ride
Under the assumption he continues his current pace, the Cup Series in 2024 seems like the logical next step for Austin Hill. Currently, Hill is in the Chevrolet pipeline with RCR. However, that brings up a problem: there are no open competitive rides for 2024 as of right now. Hendrick Motorsports, RCR, and Trackhouse Racing are locked up for the foreseeable future. Legacy Motor Club and Kaulig Racing are likely to keep their current lineup. JTG Daughtery will likely remain a one team operation. All that leaves is Spire, which would not be an improvement for his career.
Barring one of the Chevy teams buying a charter, it is unlikely to see an open Cup Series ride for Austin Hill in 2024 while remaining with Chevy. If he would be set on moving up to the Cup Series, what are the remaining options? It would be from the Ford camp since Toyota has limited seats and John Hunter Nemechek waiting. Wood Brothers might want to move on from Harrison Burton. Front Row is always an interesting team to watch during silly season. But, the most intriguing option is Stewart Haas Racing.
New Driver at Stewart-Haas Racing?
Kevin Harvick is retiring at the end of the season. Someone will need to replace him for 2024. With Ross Chastain and Alex Bowman signing extensions with their current teams, that leaves free agency looking pretty slim. Ford does have Riley Herbst, Cole Custer, and Zane Smith already under their umbrella. However, Smith is likely going to Front Row to replace Todd Gilliland. Meanwhile, the SHR Xfinity duo leave much to be desired.
With SHR needing a driver and Hill potentially needing a Cup Series ride, the two would make a nice pairing. Hill would come with funding from Bennett Transportation. United Rentals, another Hill sponsor, is already linked to SHR with Ryan Preece. Plus, Hill has no strong tie to Chevy. Before joining RCR in 2022, Hill drove for Toyota at Hattori Racing. While RCR surely would not love seeing Hill leave, their lineup is booked with Kyle Busch and Austin Dillon. Plus, they can wait to see if Sheldon Creed with develop. Hill switching teams and manufacturers make sense. Based the past two seasons, Hill is a more exciting option than Herbst or Custer. It would not be crazy to see Austin Hill replacing Harvick’s spot at SHR in 2024.
