Last week we saw a good final stage of racing and at the end of that we saw Joey Logano pick up his first victory of the season. Now it is on to the first road course of the year, COTA. I have picked 8 notable drivers to look at, 1 based on the 2023 point standings, 2 based on 2023 stats, 2 based on Road Course stats, 1 based on the last COTA race and 2 based on their overall COTA stats. Here is a look at those 8 notable drivers 2023 season statistics, along with ranks among drivers in 2023 with ranking through 5 races since the Chase started in 2004. We will also highlight notable streaks accomplished through the year, 2022 Road Course track (right & left turns) statistics and COTA statistics.
*This was written prior to any penalties or reversal of penalties, so points position does not reflect after penalty or reversal.
1st in Points – Joey Logano
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 5 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 12.0 | 5th of 38 | 117th of 859 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 93.02% | 29th of 38 | 567th of 859 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 67.78% | 10th of 38 | 170th of 811‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 96.8 | 3rd of 38 | 110th of 811‡ |
| Wins | 1 | T2nd of 42 | T16th of 984 |
| Poles | 2 | 1st of 42 | T1st of 984 |
| Top 2’s | 2 | T1st of 42 | T10th of 984 |
| Top 3’s | 2 | T1st of 42 | T25th of 984 |
| Top 5’s | 2 | T2nd of 42 | T55th of 984 |
| Top 10’s | 3 | T3rd of 42 | T59th of 984 |
| DNF’s¹ | 1 | T15th of 38 | T443rd of 859 |
| Stage Wins | 1 | T3rd of 42 | T18th of 314* |
| Stage T10s | 5 | 9th of 42 | T52nd of 314* |
| Stage Pts | 38 | 5th of 42 | T37th of 314* |
| Playoff Pts² | 6 | 2nd of 42 | T8th of 314* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 5 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2022 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 49 drivers)
- 6 Races, Avg. Finish 17.0(15th), 42.34% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 77.75(17th), Best 3rd, Worst 31st, Laps Completed 100%, Led 9.07% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 1 Pole, 1 Top 3, 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10’s, 2 Top 15’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 3 Stage Wins, 6.42 Stage Pts Per Stage
- COTA Statistics
- 2022 COTA Race
- Finished 31st, Started 6th, Led 2 laps (2.9%), Finished 4th in Stage 1 and 3rd in Stage 2, ran 27 Laps in Top15 (39.13% of laps he ran), had 70.3 Driver Rating
- Notable COTA Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 2 Races
- 17.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks T16th)
- Best Finish: 3rd, Worst: 31st
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 61.79% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 14th)
- 97.45 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 5th)
- Led 13.01% of laps he’s run (% ranks 3rd)
- 0 Top 2’s
- 1 Top 3, 50.0% (% ranks T1st)
- 1 Top 15, 50.0% (% ranks T9th)
- 1 finish outside Top 20, 50.0% (% ranks T15th)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 1 Stage Win, 25.0% (% ranks T1st)
- 3 Stage T10’s, 75.0% (% ranks T3rd)
- 6.25 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 1st)
Outlook
Joey Logano is notable because of his points position, 1st, through 5 races this year. Last week Logano used an impressive last lap to pass Brad Keselowski for his 1st win of the year. In total Logano has a 12.0 Avg. Finish that ranks 5th best on the year and a 96.8 Avg. Driver Rating that ranks 3rd best on the year. In addition he has 3 Top 10’s and the 5th most Stage Pts at 38. Even better news for Logano when it comes to stages is that last year in 6 Road Course races he won a quarter of the stages and had 6.42 Stage Pts Per Stage. Unfortunately for Logano this didn’t produce good finishes as he only had 2 Top 15’s and an Avg. Finish of 17.0 with a best finish of 3rd. Even worst is that his Avg. Driver Rating was 77.75 and he ran only 42.34% of his laps in the Top 15. What’s more is that one of his worst Road Course races last year was at COTA where he only ran 39% of his laps in the Top 15 and finished 31st with a 70.3 Driver Rating. The only bit of good news from that race is that he got 15 Stage Pts, but that is typical of Logano here as in the 2 races here he has 6.25 Stage Pts Per Stage. On the other hand his two finishes here have been on opposite ends of the spectrum as he has a 3rd and 31st. Overall he has ran 61.79% of his laps in the Top 15 and lead 13.01% of laps he has run. In all based on the numbers I think Logano runs okay most the day, but ultimately ends up outside the Top 10.
Joey Logano is notable because of his points position, 1st, through 5 races this year. Last week Logano used an impressive last lap to pass Brad Keselowski for his 1st win of the year. In total Logano has a 12.0 Avg. Finish that ranks 5th best on the year and a 96.8 Avg. Driver Rating that ranks 3rd best on the year. In addition he has 3 Top 10’s and the 5th most Stage Pts at 38. Even better news for Logano when it comes to stages is that last year in 6 Road Course races he won a quarter of the stages and had 6.42 Stage Pts Per Stage. Unfortunately for Logano this didn’t produce good finishes as he only had 2 Top 15’s and an Avg. Finish of 17.0 with a best finish of 3rd. Even worst is that his Avg. Driver Rating was 77.75 and he ran only 42.34% of his laps in the Top 15. What’s more is that one of his worst Road Course races last year was at COTA where he only ran 39% of his laps in the Top 15 and finished 31st with a 70.3 Driver Rating. The only bit of good news from that race is that he got 15 Stage Pts, but that is typical of Logano here as in the 2 races here he has 6.25 Stage Pts Per Stage. On the other hand his two finishes here have been on opposite ends of the spectrum as he has a 3rd and 31st. Overall he has ran 61.79% of his laps in the Top 15 and lead 13.01% of laps he has run. In all based on the numbers I think Logano runs okay most the day, but ultimately ends up outside the Top 10.
3rd in Points – Ross Chastain
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 5 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 12.2 | 6th of 38 | T125th of 859 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 100% | T1st of 38 | T1st of 859 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 71.9% | 8th of 38 | 143rd of 811‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 91.8 | 7th of 38 | 149th of 811‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T5th of 42 | T84th of 984 |
| Poles | 0 | T4th of 42 | T79th of 984 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T9th of 42 | T147th of 984 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T4th of 42 | T67th of 984 |
| Top 5’s | 1 | T8th of 42 | T137th of 984 |
| Top 10’s | 2 | T8th of 42 | T154th of 984 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 38 | T1st of 859 |
| Stage Wins | 3 | T1st of 42 | T2nd of 314* |
| Stage T10s | 7 | T3rd of 42 | T23rd of 314* |
| Stage Pts | 48 | 2nd of 42 | T20th of 314* |
| Playoff Pts² | 3 | 5th of 42 | T31st of 314* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 5 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2022 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 49 drivers)
- 6 Races, Avg. Finish 16.17(12th), 65.38% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 89.12(8th), Best 1st, Worst 37th, Laps Completed 98.3%, Led 6.54% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 3 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 1.58 Stage Pts Per Stage
- COTA Statistics
- 2022 COTA Race
- Finished 1st, Started 16th, Led 31 laps (44.93%), Finished 8th in Stage 2, ran 69 Laps in Top15 (100% of laps he ran), had 141.7 Driver Rating
- Notable COTA Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 2 Races
- 2.5 Avg. Finish (Ranks T1st)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 4th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 91.06% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 1st)
- 125.85 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 1st)
- Led 28.46% of laps he’s run (% ranks 1st)
- 1 Win, 50.0% (% ranks T1st)
- 2 Top 5’s, 100% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 2 Stage T10’s, 50.0% (% ranks T7th)
Outlook
Ross Chastain is notable because of how he did at COTA last year. In Atlanta last week Chastain struggled ending with 0 Stage Pts and a 13th place finish. This was his first race this year without Stage Pts but he still has the 2nd most Stage Pts at 48 and is tied for the most Stage Wins at 3. Overall his races this year have been decent as he has a 91.8 Avg. Driver Rating and has run 72% of his laps in the Top 15. However, Chastain only has 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10’s and a 12.2 Avg. Finish to show for it. A Road Course could be what Chastain needs though as in the 6 races on a Road Course last year Chastain finished half the races in the Top 10. Unfortunately for him the other half of the races he finished outside the Top 20, but remember he finished 2nd at the Indy RC before being black flagged. Overall his Avg. Finish in the 6 races was 16.17 (12th best) and his Avg. Driver Rating was 89.12 (8th best). His best of the Road Courses was here at COTA where he won in an intense last lap battle after leading almost half the race and running all 69 laps in the Top 15. Even more impressive is in his 2 races here Chastain has led 28.46% of laps, run 91% of laps in the Top 15, has a 125.85 Avg. Driver Rating (all ranking 1st), and has a worst finish of 4th. Taking all the stats in it’s hard to see Chastain not being a contender for the win at COTA. In all I see a for sure Top 10, a high probability of a Top 5, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up in victory lane.
Ross Chastain is notable because of how he did at COTA last year. In Atlanta last week Chastain struggled ending with 0 Stage Pts and a 13th place finish. This was his first race this year without Stage Pts but he still has the 2nd most Stage Pts at 48 and is tied for the most Stage Wins at 3. Overall his races this year have been decent as he has a 91.8 Avg. Driver Rating and has run 72% of his laps in the Top 15. However, Chastain only has 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10’s and a 12.2 Avg. Finish to show for it. A Road Course could be what Chastain needs though as in the 6 races on a Road Course last year Chastain finished half the races in the Top 10. Unfortunately for him the other half of the races he finished outside the Top 20, but remember he finished 2nd at the Indy RC before being black flagged. Overall his Avg. Finish in the 6 races was 16.17 (12th best) and his Avg. Driver Rating was 89.12 (8th best). His best of the Road Courses was here at COTA where he won in an intense last lap battle after leading almost half the race and running all 69 laps in the Top 15. Even more impressive is in his 2 races here Chastain has led 28.46% of laps, run 91% of laps in the Top 15, has a 125.85 Avg. Driver Rating (all ranking 1st), and has a worst finish of 4th. Taking all the stats in it’s hard to see Chastain not being a contender for the win at COTA. In all I see a for sure Top 10, a high probability of a Top 5, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up in victory lane.
9th in Points – Denny Hamlin
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 5 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 12.6 | 7th of 38 | T136th of 859 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 100% | T1st of 38 | T1st of 859 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 94.52% | 1st of 38 | 10th of 811‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 101.32 | 1st of 38 | T79th of 811‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T5th of 42 | T84th of 984 |
| Poles | 0 | T4th of 42 | T79th of 984 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T9th of 42 | T147th of 984 |
| Top 3’s | 0 | T13th of 42 | T207th of 984 |
| Top 5’s | 0 | T18th of 42 | T300th of 984 |
| Top 10’s | 2 | T8th of 42 | T154th of 984 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 38 | T1st of 859 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T7th of 42 | T45th of 314* |
| Stage T10s | 8 | T1st of 42 | T8th of 314* |
| Stage Pts | 41 | 3rd of 42 | T29th of 314* |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T9th of 42 | T60th of 314* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 5 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- none
- 2022 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 49 drivers)
- 6 Races, Avg. Finish 18.83(21st), 34.4% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 66.22(22nd), Best 13th, Worst 31st, Laps Completed 100%, Led 0.76% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 0 Top 10’s, 2 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 1.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
- COTA Statistics
- 2022 COTA Race
- Finished 18th, Started 8th, Led 3 laps (4.35%), Finished 1st in Stage 2, ran 47 Laps in Top15 (68.12% of laps he ran), had 85.7 Driver Rating
- Notable COTA Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 2 Races
- 16.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks T12th)
- Best Finish: 14th, Worst: 18th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 62.6% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 12th)
- 79.95 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 15th)
- Led 2.44% of laps he’s run (% ranks T10th)
- 0 Top 10’s
- 1 Top 15, 50.0% (% ranks T9th)
- 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 1 Stage Win, 25.0% (% ranks T1st)
- 2.5 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks T7th)
Outlook
Denny Hamlin is notable because of his stats thus far through the season. Last week Hamlin ran all 260 laps in the Top 15 before finishing 6th and following Brad Keselowski to the porta potty. The 6th tied Hamlin’s best finish of the year and put his Avg. Finish at 12.6, 7th best this year. However a better representation of how he has ran this year is that he’s spent 94.52% of his laps in the Top 15 and has a 101.32 Avg. Driver Rating, both of which rank 1st on the year. Another good stat for Hamlin is his 8 Stage T10’s, tied for most, and 41 Stage Pts, 3rd best. This week is a Road Course though and Hamlin was bad in those races last year. In the 6 races he had an 18.83 Avg. Finish while only running 34% of his laps in the Top 15 and having an Avg. Driver Rating of 66.22. Further proof is that his best finish was 13th last year, one of his only 2 Top 15’s in 6 races. The good news is Hamlin only had one finish out of the Top 20, and that one time was not at COTA. Here Hamlin finished 18th last year after winning Stage 2 and running 68.12% of his laps in the Top 15. This race also produced his best Driver Rating of any Road Course at 85.7. In the 2 races here Hamlin has not impressed as he has a 16.0 Avg. Finish with a best of 14th and has only ran 62% of his laps in the Top 15. Based on the stats I see a rough day for Hamlin, unless Toyota has fixed their Road Course program, and ultimately coming home between 11th and 20th.
Denny Hamlin is notable because of his stats thus far through the season. Last week Hamlin ran all 260 laps in the Top 15 before finishing 6th and following Brad Keselowski to the porta potty. The 6th tied Hamlin’s best finish of the year and put his Avg. Finish at 12.6, 7th best this year. However a better representation of how he has ran this year is that he’s spent 94.52% of his laps in the Top 15 and has a 101.32 Avg. Driver Rating, both of which rank 1st on the year. Another good stat for Hamlin is his 8 Stage T10’s, tied for most, and 41 Stage Pts, 3rd best. This week is a Road Course though and Hamlin was bad in those races last year. In the 6 races he had an 18.83 Avg. Finish while only running 34% of his laps in the Top 15 and having an Avg. Driver Rating of 66.22. Further proof is that his best finish was 13th last year, one of his only 2 Top 15’s in 6 races. The good news is Hamlin only had one finish out of the Top 20, and that one time was not at COTA. Here Hamlin finished 18th last year after winning Stage 2 and running 68.12% of his laps in the Top 15. This race also produced his best Driver Rating of any Road Course at 85.7. In the 2 races here Hamlin has not impressed as he has a 16.0 Avg. Finish with a best of 14th and has only ran 62% of his laps in the Top 15. Based on the stats I see a rough day for Hamlin, unless Toyota has fixed their Road Course program, and ultimately coming home between 11th and 20th.
11th in Points – Austin Cindric
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 5 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 18.6 | T16th of 38 | T315th of 859 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 99.29% | 15th of 38 | T275th of 859 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 42.46% | 18th of 38 | 338th of 811‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 72.74 | 17th of 38 | 350th of 811‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T5th of 42 | T84th of 984 |
| Poles | 0 | T4th of 42 | T79th of 984 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T9th of 42 | T147th of 984 |
| Top 3’s | 0 | T13th of 42 | T207th of 984 |
| Top 5’s | 0 | T18th of 42 | T300th of 984 |
| Top 10’s | 1 | T14th of 42 | T284th of 984 |
| DNF’s¹ | 1 | T15th of 38 | T443rd of 859 |
| Stage Wins | 1 | T3rd of 42 | T18th of 314* |
| Stage T10s | 3 | T14th of 42 | T95th of 314* |
| Stage Pts | 25 | 11th of 42 | T63rd of 314* |
| Playoff Pts² | 1 | T6th of 42 | T42nd of 314* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 5 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- none
- 2022 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 49 drivers)
- 6 Races, Avg. Finish 9.33(3rd), 64.46% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 93.18(6th), Best 2nd, Worst 21st, Laps Completed 100%, Led 2.08% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 2 Top 5’s, 4 Top 10’s, 5 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 1.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
- COTA Statistics
- 2022 COTA Race
- Finished 8th, Started 10th, Led 11 laps (15.94%), Finished 10th in Stage 1 and 9th in Stage 2, ran 52 Laps in Top15 (75.36% of laps he ran), had 117.6 Driver Rating
- Notable COTA Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 2 Races
- 16.5 Avg. Finish (Ranks T14th)
- Best Finish: 8th, Worst: 25th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 72.36% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 5th)
- 96.1 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 6th)
- Led 12.2% of laps he’s run (% ranks 4th)
- 0 Top 5’s
- 1 Top 10, 50.0% (% ranks T5th)
- 1 Top 15, 50.0% (% ranks T9th)
- 1 finish outside Top 20, 50.0% (% ranks T15th)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 4 Stage T10’s, 100% (% ranks T1st)
Outlook
Austin Cindric is notable because of how well he ran on Road Courses last year. In Atlanta last week Cindric ran well most of the race but ultimately wound up outside the Top 10 in 11th. On the year Cindric has not done as well, his Avg. Finish over the first 5 races is 18.6 and his Avg. Driver Rating is 72.74 with only 1 Top 10 and 3 Stage T10’s that has led to 25 Stage Pts. Thankfully for Cindric the next race up is a Road Course where in 6 races last year he had the 3rd best Avg. Finish at 9.33 with a best finish of 2nd. In addition he had the 6th best Avg. Driver Rating at 93.18 and had 5 Top 15’s with 4 being Top 10’s. Of the 4 Top 10’s one of them was here at COTA where he finished 8th and had the 2nd best Driver Rating at 117.6. In addition Cindric also acquired 3 Stage Pts, led 11 laps and ran 75% of his laps in the Top 15. This was his (like most the field) second race at COTA and was the better of the two for him. In total Cindric has a 16.5 Avg. Finish here and has the 6th best Avg. Driver Rating at 96.1. To add to this he has also ran 72.36% of his laps in the Top 15 with 12.2% of his laps being in the lead. In addition Cindric has never finished outside the Top 10 in a stage here. We all know Cindric is good at Road Courses and the stats back that up, this week I look for him to spend lots of time in the Top 10 and finish there as long as nothing goes wrong.
Austin Cindric is notable because of how well he ran on Road Courses last year. In Atlanta last week Cindric ran well most of the race but ultimately wound up outside the Top 10 in 11th. On the year Cindric has not done as well, his Avg. Finish over the first 5 races is 18.6 and his Avg. Driver Rating is 72.74 with only 1 Top 10 and 3 Stage T10’s that has led to 25 Stage Pts. Thankfully for Cindric the next race up is a Road Course where in 6 races last year he had the 3rd best Avg. Finish at 9.33 with a best finish of 2nd. In addition he had the 6th best Avg. Driver Rating at 93.18 and had 5 Top 15’s with 4 being Top 10’s. Of the 4 Top 10’s one of them was here at COTA where he finished 8th and had the 2nd best Driver Rating at 117.6. In addition Cindric also acquired 3 Stage Pts, led 11 laps and ran 75% of his laps in the Top 15. This was his (like most the field) second race at COTA and was the better of the two for him. In total Cindric has a 16.5 Avg. Finish here and has the 6th best Avg. Driver Rating at 96.1. To add to this he has also ran 72.36% of his laps in the Top 15 with 12.2% of his laps being in the lead. In addition Cindric has never finished outside the Top 10 in a stage here. We all know Cindric is good at Road Courses and the stats back that up, this week I look for him to spend lots of time in the Top 10 and finish there as long as nothing goes wrong.
15th in Points – Tyler Reddick
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 5 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 19.2 | T20th of 38 | T345th of 859 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 83.49% | 35th of 38 | 728th of 859 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 56.51% | 14th of 38 | 251st of 811‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 75.48 | 16th of 38 | T319th of 811‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T5th of 42 | T84th of 984 |
| Poles | 0 | T4th of 42 | T79th of 984 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T9th of 42 | T147th of 984 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T4th of 42 | T67th of 984 |
| Top 5’s | 2 | T2nd of 42 | T55th of 984 |
| Top 10’s | 2 | T8th of 42 | T154th of 984 |
| DNF’s¹ | 2 | T30th of 38 | T724th of 859 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T7th of 42 | T45th of 314* |
| Stage T10s | 3 | T14th of 42 | T95th of 314* |
| Stage Pts | 19 | 13th of 42 | T76th of 314* |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T9th of 42 | T60th of 314* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 5 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 5 finishes (active streak)
- 2022 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 49 drivers)
- 6 Races, Avg. Finish 9.5(4th), 84.5% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 111.58(2nd), Best 1st, Worst 35th, Laps Completed 97.54%, Led 15.31% of laps he ran, 2 Wins, 1 Pole, 2 Top 3’s, 3 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 5 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 1.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
- COTA Statistics
- 2022 COTA Race
- Finished 5th, Started 4th, Led 2 laps (2.9%), got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 67 Laps in Top15 (97.1% of laps he ran), had 115.5 Driver Rating
- Notable COTA Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 2 Races
- 7.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 4th)
- Best Finish: 5th, Worst: 9th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 77.24% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 4th)
- 95.85 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 7th)
- Led 1.63% of laps he’s run (% ranks T14th)
- 1 Pole, 50.0% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Top 3’s
- 1 Top 5, 50.0% (% ranks T3rd)
- 2 Top 10’s, 100% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 2.0 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks T12th)
Outlook
Tyler Reddick is notable because of his Road Course statistics in 2022. At Atlanta Reddick ran less than half the race inside the Top 15 but ended up getting a Top 5, coming home 5th. This has Reddick on a 2 race Top 5 streak but his Avg. Finish is still a dismal 19.2. What’s more is that Reddick has only ran 83.49% of the laps this year (ranks 35th) and of the laps he’s run only 56.51% of those have been in the Top 15 (ranks 14th). With these numbers it comes as no surprise that he only has a total of 19 Stage Pts, but there is good news on the horizon for Reddick and his fans as this week is a Road Course. In the 6 Road Course races last year he averaged a 9.5 finish with 2 Wins and ran near 85% of his laps in the Top 15. In addition to the 2 wins he also had 3 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, and the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating last year at 111.58. The one weakness Reddick had on Road Courses was his 1.5 Stage Pts Per Stage, but with the no stage cautions this year that could improve. Last year at COTA Reddick had the 3rd best Avg. Driver Rating at 115.5 and finished 5th after spending all but 2 laps in the Top 15. Overall at COTA he has a 7.0 Avg. Finish, 2 Top 10’s, 77.24% of his laps run in the Top 15, and a 95.85 Avg. Driver Rating that ranks 7th best. Based on the stats Reddick should do well this weekend and he’ll finish Top 10, but he’s in a Toyota this year so if they haven’t fix their issues then the best I see is 11th-15th.
Tyler Reddick is notable because of his Road Course statistics in 2022. At Atlanta Reddick ran less than half the race inside the Top 15 but ended up getting a Top 5, coming home 5th. This has Reddick on a 2 race Top 5 streak but his Avg. Finish is still a dismal 19.2. What’s more is that Reddick has only ran 83.49% of the laps this year (ranks 35th) and of the laps he’s run only 56.51% of those have been in the Top 15 (ranks 14th). With these numbers it comes as no surprise that he only has a total of 19 Stage Pts, but there is good news on the horizon for Reddick and his fans as this week is a Road Course. In the 6 Road Course races last year he averaged a 9.5 finish with 2 Wins and ran near 85% of his laps in the Top 15. In addition to the 2 wins he also had 3 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, and the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating last year at 111.58. The one weakness Reddick had on Road Courses was his 1.5 Stage Pts Per Stage, but with the no stage cautions this year that could improve. Last year at COTA Reddick had the 3rd best Avg. Driver Rating at 115.5 and finished 5th after spending all but 2 laps in the Top 15. Overall at COTA he has a 7.0 Avg. Finish, 2 Top 10’s, 77.24% of his laps run in the Top 15, and a 95.85 Avg. Driver Rating that ranks 7th best. Based on the stats Reddick should do well this weekend and he’ll finish Top 10, but he’s in a Toyota this year so if they haven’t fix their issues then the best I see is 11th-15th.
18th in Points – Michael McDowell
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 5 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 21.0 | T25th of 38 | T431st of 859 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 99.6% | 13th of 38 | T214th of 859 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 33.25% | 20th of 38 | 386th of 811‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 64.5 | 21st of 38 | 456th of 811‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T5th of 42 | T84th of 984 |
| Poles | 0 | T4th of 42 | T79th of 984 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T9th of 42 | T147th of 984 |
| Top 3’s | 0 | T13th of 42 | T207th of 984 |
| Top 5’s | 0 | T18th of 42 | T300th of 984 |
| Top 10’s | 0 | T29th of 42 | T497th of 984 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 38 | T1st of 859 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T7th of 42 | T45th of 314* |
| Stage T10s | 1 | T20th of 42 | T135th of 314* |
| Stage Pts | 6 | 20th of 42 | 132nd of 314* |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T9th of 42 | T60th of 314* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 5 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- none
- 2022 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 49 drivers)
- 6 Races, Avg. Finish 10.83(5th), 83.36% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 96.15(3rd), Best 3rd, Worst 27th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 2.65% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 1 Top 5, 4 Top 10’s, 5 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 1.17 Stage Pts Per Stage
- COTA Statistics
- 2022 COTA Race
- Finished 13th, Started 27th, Led 0 laps, got 0 Stage T10’s, ran 18 Laps in Top15 (26.09% of laps he ran), had 56.5 Driver Rating
- Notable COTA Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 2 Races
- 10.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 5th)
- Best Finish: 7th, Worst: 13th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 43.9% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 19th)
- 82.2 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 13th)
- Led 2.44% of laps he’s run (% ranks T10th)
- 0 Top 5’s
- 1 Top 10, 50.0% (% ranks T5th)
- 2 Top 15’s, 100% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 2.25 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks T9th)
Outlook
Michael McDowell is notable because of his performance at COTA in the 2 races here. Last week McDowell finished where he ran around most the race, 21st. This is also McDowell’s Avg. Finish this year which ranks him T25th and his 64.5 Avg. Driver Rating ranks 21st. He doesn’t have a Top 10 finish this year and only has 1 Stage T10, so needless to say he has been off to an unimpressive start this year. There is good news though, and that good news is that there is a Road Course coming. Last year in 6 Road Course races he had an Avg. Finish of 10.83 (5th best) and an Avg. Driver Rating of 96.15 (3rd best). In total he ran 83.36% of his laps in the Top 15, had 5 Top 15 finishes, and 4 Top 10’s. One of those Top 10’s was not at COTA though as he finished 13th and in fact only ran 26% of his laps in the Top 15. Furthermore his 56.5 Avg. Driver Rating was only 25th best that race, so his finish was definitely better than he ran most the day. However McDowell’s overall stats at COTA are different as he has a 10.0 Avg. Finish with an 82.2 Avg. Driver Rating, but his Laps ran in Top15% is still only 43.9%. With all that said McDowell may not be in the Top 15 a lot but finds a way to be there at the end. Based on his stats from last year and here at COTA I see McDowell finishing with a Top 15 finish for sure and maybe even inside the Top 10 if luck goes his way.
Michael McDowell is notable because of his performance at COTA in the 2 races here. Last week McDowell finished where he ran around most the race, 21st. This is also McDowell’s Avg. Finish this year which ranks him T25th and his 64.5 Avg. Driver Rating ranks 21st. He doesn’t have a Top 10 finish this year and only has 1 Stage T10, so needless to say he has been off to an unimpressive start this year. There is good news though, and that good news is that there is a Road Course coming. Last year in 6 Road Course races he had an Avg. Finish of 10.83 (5th best) and an Avg. Driver Rating of 96.15 (3rd best). In total he ran 83.36% of his laps in the Top 15, had 5 Top 15 finishes, and 4 Top 10’s. One of those Top 10’s was not at COTA though as he finished 13th and in fact only ran 26% of his laps in the Top 15. Furthermore his 56.5 Avg. Driver Rating was only 25th best that race, so his finish was definitely better than he ran most the day. However McDowell’s overall stats at COTA are different as he has a 10.0 Avg. Finish with an 82.2 Avg. Driver Rating, but his Laps ran in Top15% is still only 43.9%. With all that said McDowell may not be in the Top 15 a lot but finds a way to be there at the end. Based on his stats from last year and here at COTA I see McDowell finishing with a Top 15 finish for sure and maybe even inside the Top 10 if luck goes his way.
20th in Points – Alex Bowman
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 5 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 7.8 | 1st of 38 | T36th of 859 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 100% | T1st of 38 | T1st of 859 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 82.06% | 3rd of 38 | 72nd of 811‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 93.7 | 6th of 38 | 133rd of 811‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T5th of 42 | T84th of 984 |
| Poles | 1 | T2nd of 42 | T11th of 984 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T9th of 42 | T147th of 984 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T4th of 42 | T67th of 984 |
| Top 5’s | 2 | T2nd of 42 | T55th of 984 |
| Top 10’s | 4 | T1st of 42 | T11th of 984 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 38 | T1st of 859 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T7th of 42 | T45th of 314* |
| Stage T10s | 6 | T6th of 42 | T38th of 314* |
| Stage Pts | 39 | 4th of 42 | T35th of 314* |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T9th of 42 | T60th of 314* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 5 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 4 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2022 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 49 drivers)
- 5 Races, Avg. Finish 15.2(9th), 51.77% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 78.6(14th), Best 2nd, Worst 32nd, Laps Completed 94.96%, Led 0.00% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 3 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Wins, 1.6 Stage Pts Per Stage
- COTA Statistics
- 2022 COTA Race
- Finished 2nd, Started 5th, Led 0 laps, Finished 3rd in Stage 1, ran 55 Laps in Top15 (79.71% of laps he ran), had 112.3 Driver Rating
- Notable COTA Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 2 Races
- 5.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 3rd)
- Best Finish: 2nd, Worst: 8th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 71.54% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 6th)
- 99.75 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 3rd)
- Led 2.44% of laps he’s run (% ranks T10th)
- 0 Wins
- 1 Top 2, 50.0% (% ranks T1st)
- 2 Top 10’s, 100% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 2 Stage T10’s, 50.0% (% ranks T7th)
Outlook
Alex Bowman is notable because of his 2023 stats thru 4 races. Last week Bowman finished out of the Top 10 for the first time this year, coming home 14th. This dropped Bowman’s Avg. Finish from 6.25 to 7.8, but this is still the best of any driver this year. In addition he’s ran 82.06% of his laps in the Top 15 ranking 3rd, and his 93.7 Avg. Driver Rating is good enough for 6th. Bowman has 4 Top 10’s with 2 Top 5’s this year and his 39 Stage Pts are the 4th most. However, this weekend may not continue the success he’s been having. In the 5 Road Courses races he ran last year he only had 1 Top 10 finish with a 15.2 Avg. Finish. The good news is that his only Top 10 on a Road Course was a 2nd place, and even better news is that 2nd place was here at COTA. In that race Bowman started 5th, finished 3rd in Stage 1, ran 79.71% of his laps in the Top 15 and his 112.3 Driver Rating was the 4th best on the day. Overall, like many other drivers, Bowman has raced here 2 times in the Cup Series with a 2nd and 8th place finish to show for it. In addition he has ran 71.54% of his laps in the Top 15 and his 99.75 Avg. Driver Rating is good for 3rd best among active drivers. This weekend may be a struggle for Bowman if this were any other Road Course, but this is COTA where Bowman seems to run well. So, I see Bowman running Top 15 most the day and finishing Top 10 as well.
Alex Bowman is notable because of his 2023 stats thru 4 races. Last week Bowman finished out of the Top 10 for the first time this year, coming home 14th. This dropped Bowman’s Avg. Finish from 6.25 to 7.8, but this is still the best of any driver this year. In addition he’s ran 82.06% of his laps in the Top 15 ranking 3rd, and his 93.7 Avg. Driver Rating is good enough for 6th. Bowman has 4 Top 10’s with 2 Top 5’s this year and his 39 Stage Pts are the 4th most. However, this weekend may not continue the success he’s been having. In the 5 Road Courses races he ran last year he only had 1 Top 10 finish with a 15.2 Avg. Finish. The good news is that his only Top 10 on a Road Course was a 2nd place, and even better news is that 2nd place was here at COTA. In that race Bowman started 5th, finished 3rd in Stage 1, ran 79.71% of his laps in the Top 15 and his 112.3 Driver Rating was the 4th best on the day. Overall, like many other drivers, Bowman has raced here 2 times in the Cup Series with a 2nd and 8th place finish to show for it. In addition he has ran 71.54% of his laps in the Top 15 and his 99.75 Avg. Driver Rating is good for 3rd best among active drivers. This weekend may be a struggle for Bowman if this were any other Road Course, but this is COTA where Bowman seems to run well. So, I see Bowman running Top 15 most the day and finishing Top 10 as well.
32nd in Points – Kyle Larson
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 5 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 16.8 | 14th of 38 | T257nd of 859 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 94.6% | 24th of 38 | 529th of 859 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 68.81% | 9th of 38 | 162nd of 811‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 93.74 | 5th of 38 | 132nd of 811‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T5th of 42 | T84th of 984 |
| Poles | 1 | T2nd of 42 | T11th of 984 |
| Top 2’s | 1 | T3rd of 42 | T43rd of 984 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T4th of 42 | T67th of 984 |
| Top 5’s | 2 | T2nd of 42 | T55th of 984 |
| Top 10’s | 2 | T8th of 42 | T154th of 984 |
| DNF’s¹ | 2 | T30th of 38 | T724th of 859 |
| Stage Wins | 1 | T3rd of 42 | T18th of 314* |
| Stage T10s | 4 | T10th of 42 | T67th of 314* |
| Stage Pts | 37 | 6th of 42 | 42nd of 314* |
| Playoff Pts² | 1 | T6th of 42 | T42nd of 314* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 5 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 5 finishes
- 2022 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 49 drivers)
- 6 Races, Avg. Finish 19.67(23rd), 63.43% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 86.07(12th), Best 1st, Worst 35th, Laps Completed 93.57%, Led 6.26% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 1 Pole, 2 Top 3’s, 2 Top 5’s, 2 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 3 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 1 Stage Win, 6.0 Stage Pts Per Stage
- COTA Statistics
- 2022 COTA Race
- Finished 29th, Started 13th, Led 0 laps, Finished 5th in Stage 1, ran 38 Laps in Top15 (55.07% of laps he ran), had 72.2 Driver Rating
- Notable COTA Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year)
- 2 Races
- 15.5 Avg. Finish (Ranks 11th)
- Best Finish: 2nd, Worst: 29th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 70.73% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 7th)
- 97.5 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 4th)
- Led 3.25% of laps he’s run (% ranks 8th)
- 0 Wins
- 1 Top 2, 50.0% (% ranks T1st)
- 1 Top 15, 50.0% (% ranks T9th)
- 1 finish outside Top 20, 50.0% (% ranks T15th)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 3 Stage T10’s, 75.0% (% ranks T3rd)
- 4.5 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 3rd)
Outlook
Kyle Larson is notable because of his stats here at COTA. Last weekend at Atlanta Larson was running 2nd when his Almirola luck struck again which put him 31st at the end of the race. Bad luck has plagued Larson this year as his 93.74 Avg. Driver Rating ranks 5th best, but his 16.8 Avg. Finish ranks only 14th best. He has also run 68.81% of his laps in the Top 15 and has 37 Stage Pts to his name with 1 Top 2 finish but unfortunately only 2 Top 10’s. With this weekend being a Road Course this may not turn around either. In 6 Road Course races last year Larson had 1 Win and 2 Top 3’s, but also only 2 Top 10’s and 3 Top 15’s. All of his finishes outside the Top 15 ended up outside the Top 20 too which made his Avg. Finish a bleak 19.67, good for 23rd best. There is good news in the fact that his 86.07 Avg. Driver Rating was 12th best and he did get 6.0 Stage Pts Per Stage. In fact 6 Stage Pts is exactly how many he got last year at COTA before finishing 29th. This race wasn’t Larson’s best as he only ran 55% of his laps in the Top 15 and his Driver Rating was only 72.2. In the 2 races Larson has ran here he has finished 2nd and 29th with 70% of his laps being run in the Top 15. His Avg. Driver Rating of 97.5 ranks 4th and his 4.5 Stage Pts Per Stage ranks 3rd. With this said Larson was a good Road Course racer in 2021 but last year he was not. I see Larson running decent this weekend but ending with a 6th-15th place finish.
Kyle Larson is notable because of his stats here at COTA. Last weekend at Atlanta Larson was running 2nd when his Almirola luck struck again which put him 31st at the end of the race. Bad luck has plagued Larson this year as his 93.74 Avg. Driver Rating ranks 5th best, but his 16.8 Avg. Finish ranks only 14th best. He has also run 68.81% of his laps in the Top 15 and has 37 Stage Pts to his name with 1 Top 2 finish but unfortunately only 2 Top 10’s. With this weekend being a Road Course this may not turn around either. In 6 Road Course races last year Larson had 1 Win and 2 Top 3’s, but also only 2 Top 10’s and 3 Top 15’s. All of his finishes outside the Top 15 ended up outside the Top 20 too which made his Avg. Finish a bleak 19.67, good for 23rd best. There is good news in the fact that his 86.07 Avg. Driver Rating was 12th best and he did get 6.0 Stage Pts Per Stage. In fact 6 Stage Pts is exactly how many he got last year at COTA before finishing 29th. This race wasn’t Larson’s best as he only ran 55% of his laps in the Top 15 and his Driver Rating was only 72.2. In the 2 races Larson has ran here he has finished 2nd and 29th with 70% of his laps being run in the Top 15. His Avg. Driver Rating of 97.5 ranks 4th and his 4.5 Stage Pts Per Stage ranks 3rd. With this said Larson was a good Road Course racer in 2021 but last year he was not. I see Larson running decent this weekend but ending with a 6th-15th place finish.
