For the first time this season, NASCAR will be going road course racing. NASCAR is hosting an event at COTA for the third time this weekend. Plus, this weekend marks the second race this season where there will be more than the 36 chartered teams entering. Former Formula One champions, IndyCar/IMSA veterans, and the NASCAR regulars will compete at the Echo Park Automotive Grand Prix. Road courses have been a draw for extra entries for NASCAR recently. Trackhouse will be fielding their PROJECT91 car, Legacy Motor Club has Jimmie Johnson returning, and The Money Team will hopefully not bring a bouncing car this time.
Last season, road course races were one of the main successes of the NextGen car. The car was built for better racing on the road course. Outside the chaos at the Indy Grand Prix, the racing was solid in 2022. NASCAR needs a solid race on Sunday. Fan apathy is starting to take over with diminishing TV ratings and unfavorable reaction to the past few races. Perhaps COTA will provide that excitement. Last year, the finish saw Ross Chastain bump AJ Allmendinger into the gravel to secure his first career Cup Series win. This year could provide the same level excitement.
Selecting five drivers from this entry list was a bit more challenging than other weekends. The number of intriguing storylines to follow is great for NASCAR this weekend. Although it was a challenge, the following drivers were selected for the five to watch for the Echo Park Automotive Grand Prix. If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Jenson Button & Kimi Räikkönen
Technically, this is cheating. However, you cannot make a list of drivers to watch without mentioning the two former F1 champions in the field. Jenson Button will be piloting the #15 Rick Ware Racing entry while Kimi Räikkönen returns to Trackhouse for PROJECT91. Based on the team he is racing for, there are low expectations for Button. Although road courses can even out the car performance, Rick Ware Racing is too far off to consider Button a threat. Meanwhile, Räikkönen is in championship contending equipment. Before his DNF at Watkins Glenn, Räikkönen was able to drive his car into the Top-10.
Both drivers have experience at COTA from their F1 days. In five starts, Button has an average finish of 8.4 and only finished out of the points once. Meanwhile, Räikkönen’s experience is a bit more tumultuous. He has two podium finishes, including a win in 2018. In his other six starts though, Räikkönen only finished in the points once. His average finish at COTA is 10.25. While it is doubtful either driver will be a contender for the win, the intrigue of F1 drivers stepping foot into stock car racing is always exciting. Button and Räikkönen are talented enough drivers to race their way to a Top-10. Their respective equipment and how they handle stock car competitive are the true factors at play.
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Chris Buescher
Over the past two seasons, Chris Buescher has emerged as a strong road course racer. Although he only collected one Top-10 at road courses in 2021, Buescher was noticeable stronger at those tracks compared to the other non-superspeedways. In 2022, Buescher demonstrated he was a front runner. Buescher managed to nab a Top-10 in all but one road course race. This includes coming back from his car being on fire at the Indy Grand Prix to finish tenth. Buescher’s best road course run came at Sonoma. He remained in the Top-15 for the entire race and battled Daniel Suarez for the win.
Despite all the road course success, the one place where Chris Buescher did not run well was at COTA. After a mediocre qualifying effort, Buescher seldomly made his way forward. The best position he would reach was ninth and his average running position was nineteenth. It was a far cry from the other road course events for the RFK driver. Heading into this weekend, the intrigue for Buescher is whether COTA was a one-off bad race or simply a bad track. While RFK has had improved speed this year, the 2023 season started off with both RFK drivers missing the main event at The Clash.
Tyler Reddick
The only driver to have multiple wins on the road courses last year was Tyler Reddick. Similar to Buescher, Reddick finished in the Top-10 at all but one road course event last year. He nabbed a third Top-5 at COTA with a fifth place finish. If not for a Stage 3 incident that cost Reddick fourteen laps at Sonoma, he would have finished Top-10 in each road course race.
Despite a wretched start to the season, Reddick has bounced back nicely the past two weekends. Coming off back-to-back Top-5s, Reddick hopes to continue the hot streak at COTA. Based on his 2022, it would seem like an easy assumption that Reddick will run well at COTA. However, his switch to Toyota might interfere with that. Out of the six road course races, Toyota only managed to secure seven Top-10s. Half of those came at the ROVAL and Bubba Wallace (who is not known for his road racing ability) had two on the season. If not for Wallace and Christopher Bell, Toyota would have only two Top-10s. In two road course events, Toyota failed to have a single driver finish in the Top-10. Despite Reddick’s impressive showing in 2022, he may find himself behind the manufacturer eight-ball come Sunday.
Michael McDowell
Michael McDowell had a career season in 2022. He scored his most Top-10s, laps led, and best average finish of his career. While demonstrating his ability away from the road courses, McDowell still managed to flex his muscle at his preferred form of racing. Out of the six road courses, McDowell finished Top-10 in four of them. At Sonoma, McDowell loomed in the background behind Buescher and Suarez in the final stage. In four of the six road course races, McDowell remained in the Top-15 for over 86% of those races.
Similar to Buescher, COTA was the road course where McDowell struggled the most. He managed to finish a respectable thirteenth, but he did not run there all day (only 26.1% of laps in the Top-15). Despite his road course prowess, McDowell could not overcome a Ford struggle at COTA. Only two Fords finished in the Top-10, which was the lowest for the season on road courses. Maybe Ford figured something out over the offseason to help improve their speed. If they did, McDowell is a longshot bet to keep an eye out on Sunday.
AJ Allmendinger
He had to be on this list. AJ Allmendinger’s return to fulltime Cup Series competition has not gone well so far. In the first five races, Allmendinger’s best finish is sixth at the Daytona 500. Since then, Allmendinger has been mediocre (at best). However, COTA would be the perfect track for AJ to turn his season around. Last year, Allmendinger was battling for the win on the final lap. If not for his assisted escort to the gravel, Allmendinger would have walked away from COTA with a Top-5. Instead, he finished last car on the lead lap.
Allmendinger’s 2022 road course record looks standard for what fans expect out of the road course ringer. Outside of Sonoma, Allmendinger consistently ran Top-5 to Top-10 each race. He finished the road course season with back-to-back Top-5s. There is no reason to think that will not continue on Sunday. After what happened last year, surely Allmendinger is craving to nab a Cup Series win at COTA. In what should be a continuing trend at the road courses in 2023, AJ Allmendinger is a favorite to win the Echo Park Automotive Grand Prix.
