Joe Gibbs Racing on the Downswing in 2023?

Is Joe Gibbs Racing’s time as one of the top tier teams in the NASCAR Cup Series faltering?

Every few seasons, there seems to be one team that suffers a bit performance-wise. Hendrick Motorsports, RFK, and Richard Childress Racing have all experienced drops in performance over the last few years, and have somewhat dramatically re-built the team in order to regain their former glory.

This could be where JGR is headed in 2023, as the arrival of team’s like Trackhouse, 23XI Racing, and Kyle Busch in Childress’ #8 entry could supplant JGR at the front of the field.

The Loss of Kyle Busch:

The loss of Kyle Busch back to Chevrolet for the foreseeable future is a huge loss for Toyota and Gibbs. Busch’s last season in the #18 car did not end as anyone would have hoped, with Busch recording 7 DNF’s in 2022, and equipment contributing to some of those. Busch was instrumental in building the current version of Joe Gibbs Racing, but was more or less pushed out the door in 2022 in what should have been a premier season.

Busch and the #8 RCR Chevrolet crew have gotten off to a fast start in 2023, with Busch already having won once (he won one race total in 2022), and more sure to come. The #8 Chevrolet has been fast every weekend as well, versus 2022 when Busch had an average start of only 14th in the 18 car, and the team struggled most weeks to put Busch in a position to win.

2022-2023 Results:

Denny Hamlin (#11 FedEx Toyota):

Denny Hamlin found himself just outside of the playoffs in 2022, coming home 5th with two wins to his credit. Hamlin hoped to get off to fast start this season, keeping the momentum going from 2022. 

The exact opposite has happened so far this season as Hamlin has finished 17th (Daytona), 6th (California), and 11th (Las Vegas). The key to this season however, lays within the fact that Hamlin and the 11 crew have struggled somewhat to get to those finishes. With Hamlin being the longest-tenured driver currently in JGR’s stable, this team should have been the one to make an immediate impact. 

Another fact that cannot be ignored, is that Hamlin’s 23XI Racing team has begun to show some teeth in 2023, which HAS to be a distraction for Hamlin who is doubling as a team-owner. Add to this the possible departure of FedEx after this season, Hamlin certainly has enough wildcards this season that would be a distraction for anyone.

Ty Gibbs (#54 Monster / Interstate Batteries Toyota):

Taking over for Busch in the newly re-numbered #54 Toyota for Gibbs, Ty Gibbs has had almost no impact in what should be championship-winning equipment.  Looking back on 2022, with Gibbs moving into Cup with 23XI Racing, he scored a Top 10 in just his third start. Thus far in 2023, Gibbs has only managed a best finish of 16th after three races in official JGR equipment.

Granted, Gibbs is a rookie this season, but based off last year’s hype and performances, the finishes should be there in 2023, and they simply have not three races in. Being a bit of a non-factor this season already, the 54 crew and Gibbs seem to have some catching up to do.

Martin Truex, Jr. (#19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota):

Entering his third full season behind the wheel of the 19 for Gibbs, Truex was hoping for better in 2023 after a severe downturn in performance in 2022. Truex failing to win in 2022 is a huge indicator, after having won at least once every season since 2015.

Truex and the 19 crew only managed to produce 4 Top 5 finishes all of last season, after scoring 13 Top 5’s in 2021 (4 of which were wins). Starting around the 2022 playoffs, Truex and crew seemed to falter, despite being in a position to finish well in several races. The Achilles heel for Truex in 2023 already seems to be a mix of bad luck, less than favorable finishes, and pit road issues.

Christopher Bell (#20 DeWalt / Rheem Toyota):

Bell came dangerously close to winning the championship in 2022, winning 3 races and making it into the Round of 4. Conversely, Bell seemed to have issues finishing in the seasons final stretch, as he collected two 34th places finishes (Texas and Las Vegas), and also finished 17th in Talladega. To win a championship in this current playoff era, results like those races will not make it, especially with the ultra-competitive field that the NextGen car has produced. 

2023 has already provided Bell a 32nd place finish in California, while collecting Top 5’s at Daytona and Las Vegas. Bell seems to be Gibbs’ best shot at the championship and playoffs this season, but the team will have to get much more consistent and avoid costly mistakes yet again.

Cleaning House in the Xfinity Series

Since JGR first joined the Xfinity Series, each team they have fielded has been a weekly threat each season. Last season, JGR seemed to clean house in their Xfinity program with the release of Brandon Jones and restructuring of the team for 2023.

While John Hunter Nemechek has been a quality addition to the #20 Toyota team, highly-touted rookie Sammy Smith has struggled in 2023, as the team has been a consistently bottom Top 20 car. For comparison, in 2022 Smith had 1 Top 5 and 3 Top 10’s in only 9 starts. Again, something just seems to be off. 

JGR’s third entry, the #19 (or All-Star) car is the team vacated by Brandon Jones. The loss of Jones and sponsor Menards to JR Motorsports was a huge loss, as Jones has been with JGR since 2018. The 2023 version of this team consists of a race by race change in driver lineup, which will feature Myatt Snider, Joe Graf, Jr., Ryan Truex, and Connor Mosack thus far. The constant change in driver makes it almost impossible for a team to gain consistency, and that already seems to be proving itself true in 2023.

The team’s best performance has come at Daytona, with Snider finishing 5th. Graf has taken the wheel the next two races, with finishes of 11th (California) and 15th (Las Vegas).

Culture Change?

Something seems to have changed within the culture of Joe Gibbs Racing this season, as the general feel of the organization has changed a bit publicly. Starting with the arrival of Ty Gibbs and the re-numbering of the 18 team to 54, Gibbs seems to be almost re-branding the team a small bit at a time. This re-branding however, has come at a price as it has shown somewhat of a spotlight on some of the discontent within the team. 

Another clear change has been Gibbs’ stance on the value of racing on dirt. Joe Gibbs himself has already started this season that he just simply sees no value in that form of racing now, and has forbid his drivers from running these events.

Having plucked Christopher Bell from these exact ranks should be all the proof needed that dirt racing still has a lucrative place in 2023. Bell has already somewhat publicly voiced his displeasure for the decision, but does not have much of a choice in the matter.

2023 Overall

This season seems to be proving to be a pivotal one for Joe Gibbs Racing, as the team seems to be going through a massive change. While it is only the start of the season, there are certainly some signs pointing to an unusually rough season for Gibbs’ and crew…only time will tell.