The NASCAR Cup Series has officially completed its first four races of the 2023 season. Each race took place at different style of track. The Daytona 500 kicks off the season with superspeedway pack racing. Then the west coast swing had the drivers face a two mile oval, a traditional 1.5 mile oval, and a triangle shaped mile track. With these four races in the rearview mirror, it is the appropriate time to introduce Power Rankings for the 2023 Cup Series season.
Starting with these rankings, there will be a weekly Power Rankings article posted on the Pit Pass Network website. These rankings will only reflect the 2023 season as it currently stands. 2022 and prior seasons are not a factor in how these initial rankings will be set, hence why there has not been any power rankings until now. After each Cup Series race moving forward (including the All-Star Race), the rankings will be updated to reflect the impact of the most recent race.
Power Rankings Criteria
How will these Power Rankings work? As mentioned earlier, this is strictly based on the 2023 season. A driver’s ranking will be determined by reviewing their performance from race day. While statistical metrics are important, they will not be the only consideration for where to rank a driver. For example, there will not be an overemphasis on finishing position compared to looping data. A driver who runs in the Top-5 all race who finishes poorly due a green-white-checkered restart will be viewed more favorable compared to a driver who finishes in the Top-5 but ran outside the Top-10 all day.
The entire race weekend will be considered at various levels for the rankings. Qualifying and speed during practice will be noted, although to a much lesser degree than the race day metrics. Moving up and down the rankings will be a gradual process rather than immediate wild movements based on one race. A driver will not slide from the top spot to out of the rankings after one bad race and vice-versa.
With that said, time to reveal the first Power Rankings of 2023:
#10 – Joey Logano
Barely squeezing his way into the tenth spot is Joey Logano. His past two races have not been kind to the reigning champion. At Las Vegas, he collected his first DNF of the season after contact with Brad Keselowski. Even before the wreck, Logano was running mostly outside the Top-10 at his best track. Last weekend at Phoenix, Logano was simply slow for the entire race. He only ran inside the Top-15 for 30% of the laps ran. His 11th place finish is not indicative of his performance. By the end of Stage One, Logano fell a lap down.
With that said, Joey Logano’s first two races of the season were strong enough to keep him clinging on to a spot in the Power Rankings. A difference of a second or two when NASCAR throws the caution flag prevented Logano from becoming a two-time Daytona 500 champion. Following that up with a solid performance at Auto Club where Logano led 19 laps and collected 12 stage points had him sitting one point behind Ross Chastain for points leader.
Although he was able to find a spot this week, a bad race at Atlanta for Joey Logano will see him drop off this ranking.
#9 – Brad Keselowski
Who would have predicted Brad Keselowski finding his way onto a positive ranking list before the season? So far in this short season, Keselowski and the #6 RFK team have done a complete 180 in performance compared to last year. While everybody expected Keselowski to run well at Daytona, the surprise has been the speed at the other three tracks. Keselowski has run well in every race this season. Despite a mediocre average finish of 16.0, the #6 car has been fast on track. Proof of this is the fact Keselowski has made back-to-back final rounds of qualifying and has ran in the Top-15 for 82.98% of the season’s laps.
While Keselowski has been running well during the races, his finishes have not reflected the improvement in his car. He only has one Top-10 to show for his efforts, which came at Auto Club. Ironically, Auto Club’s race was Keselowski’s worst race yet has his best finish. What has been hurting Keselowski this season have been late race cautions. Daytona, Las Vegas, and Phoenix all had late race restarts where Keselowski fell down the leaderboard. While the improved speed is promising, Brad Keselowski needs to finish his strong runs to remain in the Power Rankings.
#8 – Denny Hamlin
Similar to Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin has been running strongly this season with only one Top-10 to show for it. Also similar to Keselowski, late race restarts have jeopardized better finishes for Hamlin. The outside line was a poor lane choice for Hamlin at Las Vegas. Meanwhile, Hamlin’s actions cost himself (and Ross Chastain) a decent finish. If not for pettiness, Hamlin could have left Phoenix with a Top-10. Instead, he finished 23rd.
Hamlin’s struggles with the late race restarts are likely a result of flukes rather than a sign of trouble. Other than Daytona, Hamlin has run inside the Top-15 over 95% in each race. With some of his best tracks coming up, expect Denny Hamlin to climb his way up the rankings.
#7 – Christopher Bell
Rankings seventh through fifth are a bit of a coin flip between three drivers. However, Christopher Bell lands at seven for this week. What hurts Bell the most compared to the others is his DNF at Auto Club. Bell got caught up in the restart wreck when the entire outside line piled into each other. Outside of that incident, Bell has clearly been the best Toyota in the field.
Thus far this season, Bell has collected two Top-5s and an additional Top-10 at Phoenix where he finished sixth. If not for the late race restarts at Phoenix, Bell would have three Top-5s. With Toyota and Joe Gibbs Racing seemingly on the downslide, Bell has been the consistent bright spot. Much like Ford, Toyota is looking for their first win of the season. Christopher Bell is likely the driver to do it.
#6 – Kyle Busch
After the Craftsman Truck Series race at Las Vegas, the season was starting to look like the Kyle Busch show. With his new team at RCR, Busch had been running up front each race on the season. Since his Cup Series win at Auto Club though, Rowdy has cooled off. His performance is still an improvement from where he was last season with Joe Gibbs Racing. However, the potential Kyle Busch revenge tour has temporarily been put on hold.
The big question with Kyle Busch is whether he can maintain his racing winning speed from earlier this season. While still a Top-10 runner, Busch has lacked the winning speed fans saw at The Clash, Daytona, and Auto Club. Multiple wins are still on the table for Busch, but it does not seem as inevitable as it did a couple of weeks ago.
#5 – Ross Chastain
Ross Chastain needs to avoid Denny Hamlin late in races moving forward. Every race this season, Chastain has shown Top-5 speed. Unfortunately for him, he has lined up near Denny Hamlin on late race restarts the past two races. Both times, Chastain’s Top-10 speed turned into a finish outside the Top-10. If the Hamlin drama would subside, Chastain would be four-for-four on Top-10 finishes.
With an extension from Trackhouse earlier in the year, Ross Chastain is looking to continue to establish himself in the top tier of Cup Series drivers. It would not be a surprise if fifth is the lowest Chastain is on the Power Rankings this year. Last season, Chastain was the most consistent driver in the field. In order to fully stamp himself in that top tier, the wins need to be more consistent. If he can avoid the Denny Hamlin drama, Chastain should be able to pull that off.
#4 – Alex Bowman
While his two other teammates have been the headlines, Alex Bowman is the only Cup Series driver with a Top-10 in every race this season. His worst finish on the season is ninth. Like Ross Chastain, Bowman also signed an extension earlier this season. However, he is definitely not the face of his organization. Still, Bowman is proving why Hendrick should have the confidence in him.
Despite being the only driver with a Top-10 in each race, Bowman ranks behind three other drivers due to not being a race winning threat. Bowman has only led 31 laps this season. Of those 31, 12 are from Daytona when he qualified on the pole. The past two races have demonstrated the drop off between Bowman and his teammates. While they are duking it out for the win, Bowman is running at the tail end of the Top-10. During Phoenix, Bowman struggled to crack the Top-10 for most of the race. Consistency is key for Alex Bowman, but the race winning speed has been missed.
#3 – Kevin Harvick
The top performing Ford is the man who retiring at the end of the season. Scary thought for Ford. Kevin Harvick’s retirement tour has been off to a strong start. Since the Daytona 500, Harvick has three straight Top-10s. At Auto Club and Phoenix, Harvick finished fifth. This is more impressive considering the lack of pace that Stewart-Haas Racing has shown this season. If not for Harrison Burton’s spin with under ten laps to go, Kevin Harvick would have won Phoenix.
Could this be recency bias having Harvick ranked this highly? Maybe; it was impressive to watch Harvick’s long run speed chop into the lead of Kyle Larson and William Byron. He was able to make a clean, green flag pass on Larson for what seemed to be the win. Although it did not work out that way, Kevin Harvick put the Chevys on notice that he is a threat to their dominance.
#2 – Kyle Larson
Over the past two races, Kyle Larson has only been outside the Top-15 for two laps. Even considering green flag pit stops, Larson only dipped out of the top runners for two laps. That is an impressive stat.
After experiencing bad luck in the first two races of the season, Larson and his team have righted the ship. Larson has led 264 laps between Las Vegas and Phoenix. In both races, he surpassed his teammate to have the best car of the field late in the race. At Las Vegas, the late race caution prevented his win. For Phoenix, the late race caution gave him an opportunity at the win. In both circumstances, Larson’s win slipped through his hands. However, the speed and dominance on display from the #5 team should worry the rest of the garage.
#1 – William Byron
William Byron has the honor of being the first driver to be ranked on top of the Power Rankings. Back to back wins tends to help those rankings. Not only has Byron have back to back wins, his car has been the class of the field for the majority of those races. While Kyle Larson only had two laps outside the Top-15, Byron had none. Byron has collected 39 stage points over the past two races. While some may feel that he has lucked into his wins with the late cautions, no one can argue that his wins have been flukes.
Will Byron and his team keep up this performance? It is certainly possible. With Chase Elliott being out, the focus of Hendrick Motorsports is only split between three teams. Plus, Byron won the Spring Atlanta race last year. Superspeedway racing can be a bit of a roulette wheel, but Byron was out front for a bulk of the race. Do not be surprised if there is another big hat celebration with William Byron on Sunday.
I agree with some of the ratings but not all of them. It’s hard not to see Chase Elliott’s name in there.