The west coast swing began last week with the final running on the 2-mile configuration of Auto Club Speedway. After Kyle Busch claimed his first victory with RCR, every NASCAR series is heading to Las Vegas this weekend. From one intermediate track to another, the Pennzoil 400 should replicate what fans saw at Auto Club. The racing should be competitive throughout the field without the leader being able to pull away with ease. If this weekend is anything similar to last, the Chevys will be set to dominate the race come Sunday. Six of the Top-10 finishers were from the Chevy camp. Chevys combined to lead 140 of the 200 laps.
With two races in the books for the 2023 season, the picture of the good and bad teams are starting to take shape. However, it is still too early to make any definitive judgements. For example, Tyler Reddick is currently sitting dead last in points, falling behind guys like Travis Pastrana, Jimmie Johnson, JJ Yeley, and BJ McCleod. Corey LaJoie is sitting inside the Top-16 in points currently. Could these early results be foreshadowing for the remainder of the season? Maybe. Some early conclusions can have more confidence than others, but for most judgements, it is too early to be definitive.
With all that in mind, who are the five drivers that you need to watch on Sunday? If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch looks to be on a revenge tour for the 2023 season. Realistically, Busch could have three wins to his credit this season. He was able to drive through the field at The Clash and finished third. For the Daytona 500, he technically led lap 200. If not for a chaotic finish to the race, Busch might have actually smiled after a Daytona 500. Then he dominated Stage Three at Auto Club to break the record for most consecutive seasons with a win. With the speed he is showing, the rest of the field should be worried.
Coming off his victory, Kyle Busch is returning to his home track. Despite the proximity to home, Las Vegas Motor Speedway is not a track where Busch has racked up the Cup Series wins. He does have an impressive 10.8 average finish at Las Vegas, but only one win to go with it. With the speed he has shown in RCR equipment, there is no reason to doubt he could double his win total on Sunday. Last season, Busch nabbed two Top-5s at Las Vegas. Plus, Busch will have plenty of practice time this weekend as he is pulling triple duty. If this is the “Kyle Busch Revenge Tour” season, then it would make sense that Busch hits the jackpot with the Las Vegas sweep.
Austin Dillon
While Kyle Busch is receiving all the headlines, Austin Dillon has been off to a great start on the season as well. If not for wrecking out of the Daytona 500, Dillon would have three consecutive Top-10 finishes to start the season. During The Clash, Dillon had better speed than Kyle Busch. At Auto Club, Dillon put in a respectable performance, finishing ninth and leading 3 laps. Despite playing second fiddle to Busch, Dillon is not a driver to forget.
Last season, Austin Dillon finished tenth in both Las Vegas races. Was he ever a threat to win either race? Not really, but he was one of five drivers who finished Top-10 in both races. Both RCR cars were able to accomplish that feat. With Kyle Busch as his teammate now, Dillon’s speed should be improved through the sharing of data. While nobody would expect Busch to give away the winning strategy, he does seem more willing to be a team player. Between letting Dillon by during the last restart at The Clash and his scanner communication during the Daytona 500, Busch might be helping Dillon more than fans would have expected. Even if Austin Dillon is not a contender for the win, he should have a competitive car that will continue his solid start to the season.
Denny Hamlin
The lone Toyota driver to finish in the Top-10 last week was Denny Hamlin. If not for scraping the wall during the last portion of the race, Hamlin could have finished in the Top-5. That Top-5 would have been beneficial for Toyota, who has had a bit of a rough start to the 2023 season. Although they won The Clash with Martin Truex Jr, Toyota has been the third best manufacturer thus far. Despite Christopher Bell’s third place finish, Toyota was a non-factor in the Daytona 500. Last Sunday, Toyota led a whopping 12 laps. Of those 12, 11 of them came from the driver of the 11 car.
A bit of an early season funk for Toyota can be broken with a win at Las Vegas. Denny Hamlin is likely the best candidate for the job. In the Spring race last year, Denny Hamlin looked like one of the cars to beat. He led 31 laps and was running up front until his drivetrain broke due to a missed shift. Hamlin will look to bring that same speed this trip to Las Vegas. If Hamlin can avoid another catastrophic mistake this year, he could be the driver to beat.
Joey Logano
The only Ford driver to have a Top-10 finish in both races thus far this season is Joey Logano. In the point standings, he trails Ross Chastain by only one point for the top spot. The last time the Cup Series was in Las Vegas, Joey Logano won. Plus, the sponsor of the race is the same sponsor on his car. The math adds up quite well for Logano.
Joey Logano has been the best driver out of the Ford camp in 2023. Coming off back-to-back Top-10s, Logano will look to continue his strong start at Las Vegas, a track that has been kind the driver. In his 19 starts at Las Vegas, Logano has racked up three wins, seven Top-5s, and an average finish of 8.5. This Logano’s best track by far. His average finish at Las Vegas is almost two spots better than his next best track (out of tracks he has double digit starts). Whenever the Cup Series rolls into Las Vegas, Logano should be a favorite to win. For this Sunday, look for Joey Logano to lead the Ford Performance Team to victory lane.
Ross Chastain
Heading into the Pennzoil 400, Ross Chastain is the Cup Series points leader. The Melon Man has won three of the four stages thus far in the season. At Auto Club, he led 91 of the 200 laps in the race. Before the last wrong of pit stops, Chastain looked to have the dominant car. Even without the victory, Chastain (and Trackhouse) has established themselves as championship contenders early this season.
As for Las Vegas, Chastain ran very well there last season. Along with Kyle Busch, he nabbed a Top-5 finish in both races. In addition to the strong finishes, Chastain also led the most laps for both races. Between the two, Chastain led a total of 151 laps at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in 2022. Much like Auto Club, he was unable to seal the deal. This Sunday, expect Ross Chastain to run up front all race long. The alleged front runner for the Anheuser-Busch sponsorship is a great bet for the race win. Kyle Busch seems like the main obstacle from a watermelon smash come Sunday.
