Short track season for the NASCAR Cup Series kicks off this weekend with the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway. For the next three weekends, the Cup Series drivers will be take on three vastly different short tracks. To start, the tri-oval Richmond Raceway. Richmond Cup Series races have devolved from beating and banging short track racing to a one lane track where pit strategy is king. With the new package that NASCAR ran at Phoenix, hopefully the racing will improve. Even if it is improved, the pit strategy game will still be very active. How will these teams split up the stages? Will they pit twice or go for the long runs with a one stop strategy? Last year, the two stop strategy reigned supreme.
In recent years, Toyota has dominated the Richmond races. In the last 14 races, Toyota (specifically Joe Gibbs Racing) has won 9, including last year’s Spring race with Denny Hamlin. Will that dominance continue this year? Based on Toyota’s speed as of late, maybe. While certain drivers have thrived recently, others are still searching for consistent speed. It will be interesting to see if Richmond is the bounce back race that Toyota needs.
Will it only be Toyota drivers on this list of drivers to watch for the Toyota Owners 400? Continue reading below to find out. And yes, this week the list is restricted back to five drivers to watch. If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Denny Hamlin
Richmond Raceway has been one of Denny Hamlin’s best tracks. He has four wins and an average finish of 8.4. Also, he is the reigning race winner. Hamlin has had a bit rough go of it in recent weeks. Due to his ill-advised commentary on his actions at Phoenix, Hamlin was fined and docked 25 points. Fast forward to COTA where Hamlin was a non-factor all race. Richmond could not be coming at a better time for Hamlin. Last year, Spring Richmond was where Hamlin turned his lackluster start to the season around.
While Hamlin and Toyota have been great at Richmond, the Toyotas have looked a bit sluggish to start the season. Outside of Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick (over the past few weeks), Toyota has not been keeping up with the other manufacturers. COTA was a glaring example of that. Outside of Reddick, none of the Toyota drivers were firmly in the Top-10 of cars for the weekend. That has been more common this season than previous ones. Much like for Hamlin, Richmond could be the race Toyota needs to find their groove.
Christopher Bell
Out of all active Cup Series drivers, Christopher Bell has the best average finish at Richmond Raceway. Despite not collecting a win at the track yet, Bell has not finished worse than 15th, which was his first start at the track. Since then, Bell has three Top-5s. In the Fall race, Bell was charging quickly to Kevin Harvick. Extend the race out another five or ten laps, more than likely Bell passes Harvick for the win.
Christopher Bell seems to have taken the mantle as top driver at Joe Gibbs Racing. Each weekend, Bell has been the fastest driver. For Joe Gibbs Racing, that is a positive sign that their young driver has developed into a potential star. Based on his recent performances, a win at Richmond seems bound to happen this year. Barring missing the setup completely, Bell should be a Top-5 driver all day and will compete for the win in the closing laps.
Kevin Harvick
The other Richmond winner last year was Kevin Harvick. In the Spring race, Harvick finished second while claiming victory in the Fall. Much like Phoenix, Harvick has a likening to Richmond Raceway. In 43 starts, Harvick has collected 9 wins, 29 Top-10s, and averages a 9.7 finishing position. Based on average finishing position, it is Harvick’s fourth best track.
Richmond Raceway would be another track that would be fitting for a Kevin Harvick win in his retirement season. Based on his performances last year in the NextGen car, Harvick should be the favorite Ford this weekend. Between Harvick’s on track prowess and Rodney Childers strategy, the #4 Ford will be a contender. Whatever pit strategy that will work best is likely the one Harvick and Childers will be on.
Chris Buescher
Outside of last Fall, Richmond Raceway has not been a great track for Chris Buescher. His Spring 15th was his best finish at the track in his career (at that time). Prior to that, his previous best finish was 17th back in 2017 when he was with JTG Daugherty. Despite all that, Buescher was battling for the lead in the Fall race in the closing laps. It was not only a late race charge/pit strategy that put Buescher there. Throughout the race, Buescher ran in the Top-10.
With the improved speed out of RFK in 2023, it is difficult to exactly predict how well (or poorly) Buescher (and Brad Keselowski) will do each weekend. Last week at COTA, Buescher qualified horribly. However, the team was able to make massive adjustments, hit right with the pit strategy, and secure a Top-10 finish. Last year, Spring Richmond was a mediocre race. In the Fall, Buescher almost wins the race. The development of RFK makes them an intriguing team each weekend. Based on his fall performance, expect Buescher to run Top-10 all day and potentially contend for the win.
Corey LaJoie
Before the appeals panel overturned the Hendrick Motorsports points penalties, Corey LaJoie found himself in the Top-16 of drivers points. That is best position Corey LaJoie has ever been in as a Cup Series driver. So far this season, LaJoie has averaged a 15.2 finish. Outside of his worst finish at Phoenix, LaJoie has finished in the Top-20 each race. For a Spire entry, that is impressive. Now comes a big test with Richmond this weekend.
The big question for Corey LaJoie and his team is how long can they keep this up. Phoenix was the first race where the team resembled their usual form. Short tracks are where the underfunded teams seem to suffer the most. If you do not have the speed, losing the lead lap is easy and almost impossible to come back from. Especially at a caution-light race like Richmond usually hosts, then unloading with a severe lack of speed is a killer. For LaJoie, the test is to see if he can survive this stretch of short tracks without losing too much ground. Although with the win-and-in format of the playoffs, it would be amazing for LaJoie and Spire if they could keep that car in the Top-20 of points all season long.
