NASCAR’s spring trip out west is coming to a close on Sunday. So far this season, it has been heavy Chevy dominance. Three points paying races, three Chevrolets finding victory lane. Last Sunday, William Byron dominated the race to sweep the stages and collect his first win of 2023. If Byron was not leading the charge, teammate Kyle Larson was at the front of the pack. Had it not been for a late caution, Larson would have stolen victory from Byron. Now, the Cup Series moves onto the United Rentals Work United 500 at Phoenix Raceway.
The Spring Phoenix race is a teaser for the Championship Race in the Fall. This year, NASCAR has implemented a new spoiler for this track (and other flat tracks), with the hope that the cars will be tougher to handle across the mile track. Practice will bump up from a 20-minutes session to a 50-minute session. Will the smaller spoiler equate to better racing? NASCAR sure hopes so. Will this spoiler lead to different drivers out front? Ford and Toyota wish that it does. Ford has yet to find victory lane this season while Toyota can only claim The Clash title.
As more races are marked complete on the schedule, the more fans will know who the contenders and pretenders are for 2023. For the United Rentals Work United 500, who will be five drivers to watch? Read below to find out. If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Kevin Harvick
Kevin Harvick owns Phoenix Raceway. In 40 starts, Harvick has won 9 times at Phoenix with an average finish of 8.7. At this track, Harvick has never had a DNF, only missed the Top-10 11 times, and only finished off the lead lap 6 times. He has led 1,663 laps. Currently, Harvick is on a 19-race Top-10 streak at Phoenix Raceway. The last time Harvick finished outside the Top-20 there was back in 2009. This is pure domination of a track.
With Kevin Harvick on his retirement tour, it would be the ideal ending to see him hit double digits in the win column at Phoenix. His last win at the track came in 2018. Though Stewart-Haas Racing has been a bit slow in recent years, Harvick has been able to perform leaps and bounds better than his teammates. However, his teammate Chase Briscoe did win the Spring race last year. Harvick winning at Phoenix seems destined to happen. If it does not happen on Sunday, then the field will need to look out come the Championship Race.
Chase Briscoe
Speaking of Kevin Harvick’s teammate, the defending champion of the Spring Phoenix race is Chase Briscoe. Briscoe’s lone Cup Series win came at the track last year after a late race restart. Briscoe was able to hold off Ross Chastain and Tyler Reddick, both who were also looking for their first Cup Series win. However, Briscoe’s win was not a fluke off of a restart. Briscoe led 101 laps, only second to Ryan Blaney.
While Chase Briscoe’s Cup Series career has been a bit underwhelming thus far, his 2022 at Phoenix Raceway gave fans signs of optimism. On top of the win in the Spring, Briscoe finished fourth in the Championship Race. Phoenix Raceway made up a third of Briscoe’s Top-5s in 2022. Though his rookie season saw him struggle at Phoenix, something about the Next Gen car must have clicked for Briscoe. Though Stewart-Haas has struggled this year (outside of Harvick), there is no reason to expect Briscoe not bringing the same performance as 2022.
Noah Gragson
It might be a bit surprising to see Noah Gragson featured in this article. His 2023 campaign has not gotten off to the best start. He wrecked out of the Daytona 500 and has not shown much speed at Auto Club and Las Vegas. Honestly, he has not been a massive improvement (so far) over Ty Dillon. However, Phoenix Raceway might be the best place for Gragson to turn around his season.
Gragson has had strong performances at Phoenix in the Xfinity Series. Last year, he won the Spring race while leading the most laps. His average finish in 8 starts is 10.7, which is inflated by a DNF due to an engine going sour in 2021. Take away the DNF, his average finish is fifth. In the Championship Race last year, Gragson finished second behind Ty Gibbs. Much like Briscoe, Gragson seemed to an affinity for Phoenix in the Xfinity Series. Granted, that does not necessarily translate into Cup Series success. At this point, any potential sign for optimism will be taken. If you are looking for a longshot bet for your fantasy lineup, Noah Gragson might not be a bad pick. Do not be surprised if he runs strong on Sunday.
Josh Berry
Welcome to the Cup Series Josh. Due to Chase Elliott’s snowboarding accident and surgery, Josh Berry is going to be pulling double duty on the ovals for Hendrick Motorsports over the next six weeks. After the scramble to get Berry ready for Las Vegas on short notice, it will be nice for team and driver to have a full week to prepare with this unique situation. At Las Vegas, Berry did his job admirably. He took care of the equipment and brought the car home in one piece.
Will Josh Berry’s job change much this weekend? Probably not. Berry is serving as a filler for Chase Elliott. Rick Hendrick is not expecting Berry to be competing for wins. All that is expected out of Berry is that the car remains intact by the end of the race. However, it is still a Hendrick Motorsports entry. The equipment itself will be fast. If Berry can find comfort behind the wheel, then Berry can prove to be more competitive than what he showed at Las Vegas. A successful run in the 9 car could open some doors for Josh Berry. While it is doubtful for Berry to compete for the win, expect a more competitive driver from Berry this weekend.
Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney made headlines this week without doing anything. During the NASCAR on NBC podcast, Kyle Petty called Blaney “unfulfilled potential” and compared the young driver to Kasey Kahne. After the entire Ford camp disappointed at Las Vegas, Blaney (along with Austin Cindric and Stewart-Hass Racing) received criticism from Petty about Ford’s lack of performance. Whether you agree or disagree with Petty, it certainly shoved Blaney into the spotlight. It would be nice for Blaney to shut down those remarks by winning on Sunday.
Phoenix Raceway might have been Blaney’s best track in 2022. Between the two races, Blaney led 252 laps, leading the most laps in the Spring race and the second most in the Fall. At the end of the Championship Race, it seemed that Blaney had the best car on track. If not for being a good teammate for Championship Four teammate Joey Logano, Blaney likely would have won the race.
Ryan Blaney is on a three race Top-5 streak at Phoenix. With how well he ran at the track last season, Blaney should be a favorite for the win. With Ford needing to find victory lane early in the season, Phoenix might be their best bet. Harvick, Briscoe, and Blaney are all strong contenders for the win from the Ford camp. Throw in Joey Logano, an improved Brad Keselowski, and the other SHR drivers, Ford could have a race in the United Rentals Work United 500.
