NASCAR finishes the Spring short track portion of the schedule with a trip to Martinsville Speedway. This year, the NOCO 400 will be run Sunday afternoon rather than Saturday night. While nighttime Cup Series racing at Martinsville seemed great on paper, the results were not as grand. Last year, the most pressing issue with Martinsville was how the NextGen car drove on the track. Martinsville is known for tight racing, short track tempers, and the bump and run. In 2022, the racing was non-existent, especially in the Spring race. There was only one line the cars could run and it took reckless abandonment to drive deep into the corner to make a pass. Minor adjustments to the car made the Fall race slightly better, but it was still a disappointing race. NASCAR should thank Ross Chastain for letting people forget about how bad the racing was in October.
Fast forward to 2023 and Martinsville should be an improved race. With the new aero package that NASCAR has implemented, the racing at tracks like Phoenix and Richmond were much improved. This should give fans hope that the NOCO 400 will not be the snooze fest it was last year. Fingers crossed at least. At the very least, the bump and run should be a viable move this weekend. No matter what the aero package is, Martinsville has never been a track of multiple grooves. If the racing is not improved, the race winner might be decided on Saturday when the Cup Series qualifies. As drivers learned last year, track position is king.
Will there be another new winner for the season this weekend? Can the aero package salvage the NextGen car at this beloved short track? Which drivers will be able to thrive with the new aero package? Who are the five drivers to watch this weekend for the NOCO 400? Read below to find out. If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Chase Elliott
He is back. After missing six races with a broken leg, Chase Elliott will make his return to the #9 car this weekend. Josh Berry and Jordan Taylor did an admirable job filling in for NASCAR’s most popular driver. However, Rick Hendrick and fans alike are thrilled to see Elliott return this weekend. Martinsville has been a favorable track to Elliott. In 15 starts, Elliott has collected a win, 5 Top-5s, and 9 Top-10s with an average finish of 13.2.
With Elliott’s return, the quest for championship number two can resume. Elliott will be trying to replicate what Kyle Busch did back in 2015. Busch, who missed a third of the season after breaking his leg in the Xfinity opener at Daytona, managed to climb his way up the points standings, earn a spot in the playoffs, and win the championship. For Chase Elliott, his path will be a lot easier. NASCAR dropped the requirement of being in the Top-30 of points to qualify for the playoffs. All Chase has to do is win and he is in. That could be done this weekend.
Denny Hamlin
Denny Hamlin’s villain arc was completed when the fans at his home state’s tracks starting booing him. Martinsville has also been a place to see Hamlin display his villainous ways. Who can forget interrupting Alex Bowman’s burnout and calling the driver a hack? With that said, Hamlin has dominated Martinsville over his career. In 34 starts, Hamlin has 5 wins and an average finish of 10.5.
Despite Hamlin’s successful history at Martinsville, he was a complete non-factor in the Spring race last year. Hamlin ran in the back of the pack for the entire race, never pushing his way forward (although Hamlin was not alone in that endeavor). His Fall race was considerably better, as he ran in the Top-10 all race, led the most laps, and won the first two stages. Which Denny Hamlin will show up to the NOCO 400? The usually strong Martinsville running one or the way-off the mark Spring 2022 Hamlin?
Ryan Blaney
Team Penske as a whole has been having an off-year. Despite Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney sitting in the Top-10 of points, Team Penske has not been as strong as fans have come to expect. Ryan Blaney has not been much of a factor through the first eight races of the season. Other than Phoenix, Bristol dirt was his best performance thus far, with a Top-5 taken away from after contact with Chase Briscoe on a late race restart. His only non-Phoenix Top-10s have come at the two superspeedway races.
Martinsville could help Ryan Blaney rebound and turn his season around. Granted, Bristol dirt should have done that before the late race incidents. Nonetheless, Blaney captured two Top-5s at Martinsville last year, making that 7 Top-5s in 14 starts at Martinsville. Blaney’s winless streak has stretched to a length 52 races since his Coke Zero 400 win in 2021. For a driver of Blaney’s caliber, a win must be coming soon. Martinsville might be a good place for that to happen.
Christopher Bell
Walking into Martinsville, Christopher Bell is coming off a win at Bristol dirt and a win last time the Cup Series was in Martinsville. Bell, who won the elimination in October to advance to the Championship Four, has all of the momentum on his heading into Martinsville. Will that translate into success this weekend? More than likely, yes.
The one thing that could be of concern for Christopher Bell is the same issue that plagued Denny Hamlin in the Spring Martinsville race last year. For as fast as Bell as in the Fall, he lacked that same speed in the Spring. While he was not as off the pace as Hamlin, Bell was not a front runner for the night. For both Hamlin and Bell, the question is whether the Fall race had better speed due to adjustments made or the difference in the weather. While it should not be as freezing as it was last year, it will not be the Fall weather either.
Ty Gibbs
The leading candidate for Rookie of the Year comes into Martinsville with a streak of four Top-10s. After getting off to an abysmal start, Gibbs has turned the ship around with these Top-10s. He has climbed to 18th in the points standings, putting a good chunk of distance between him and fellow rookie Noah Gragson (who sits in 30th). Gibbs will look to continue his good runs in the NOCO 400.
In the Xfinity Series, Gibbs has an interesting history with Martinsville. Statistically, it is what you would expect from a Joe Gibbs Racing entry: 1 win, 3 Top-10s in 4 starts. However, Gibbs has had some of his ugliest moments at the track. Martinsville is where he slammed his car into Sam Mayer’s on pit road and got into a scuffle. Also, it is the location where he wrecked his teammate for the win when said teammate needed to win to make the Championship Four (and Gibbs did not). Will that drama spill over in the Cup Series? With Gibbs, it would not be surprising. While his Top-10 streak has been impressive, Gibbs needs to run better throughout the race. Some of his Top-10s feel more resulting from flukes/late race restarts than actually having a Top-10 car.
