Time to go racing at the Monster Mile. The NASCAR Cup Series will head to Dover to take on the mile oval (and the rain). This will be the second straight race at the track where rain will likely be a factor. Last year, the race was put under the yellow due to rain. For this upcoming weekend, the rain looks to potentially spoil the festivities, with high chances on throughout the weekend. If they are able to race this weekend, 2022 showed fans the usual Dover racing. While nothing outstanding, it was better than the short tracks on the schedule. Unfortunately, Dover did not qualify for the new aero package that NASCAR is rolling out at the other tracks.
Once again, the Cup Series heads into a new race weekend after another Chevy win. Out of the ten races this season, Chevy has won seven of them. When looking at the recent winners for Dover, it would seem that this trend will continue. Four of the past seven winners have come from the Chevrolet camp, including the past two races. Dover was also the location of the Hendrick 1-2-3-4 finish back in 2021. Chevy will look to build upon its brilliant start to the season. At a friendly track like Dover, it would not be surprising to see Chevy find their way back to victory lane.
Will the list of five drivers be exclusively Chevy? Can Ford and Toyota start making a charge to compete with the Chevrolets this year? Find out who are the five drivers to watch for this weekend’s Wurth 400 at Dover. If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Josh Berry
Coming into the weekend, the biggest news story is Alex Bowman’s injury that he suffered on Tuesday night. Bowman flipped his sprint car, causing a fracture to his vertebra. According to Hendrick Motorsports, Bowman is expected to miss at least three weeks with the injury. That means the return of Josh Berry to the Cup Series.
Previously this season, Berry filled in for Chase Elliott during his injury recovery. In his five starts, Berry performed admirably, especially for a driver who never had any experience in the NextGen car. Berry collected two Top-10s, including a second place finish at Richmond. In the 9 car, Berry averaged a 17.2 finish.
For Josh Berry and Hendrick Motorsports, Dover is a perfect place for Berry to fill in for Bowman. In the Xfinity Series, Berry’s worst finish at the track is second. Plus, this will not be Berry’s first start in the Cup Series at Dover. In 2021, Berry made his Cup Series debut at the track, driving for Spire Motorsports. While the expectations for Berry will be relatively low, there is a chance that he could pull out another Top-5 finish.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
The driver who finished second at this race last year, Ricky Stenhouse Jr would be a good underdog pick. His second place finish in 2022 was not a fluke result based on a late race restart. Stenhouse ran in the Top-10 all race, For 94% of the race, Stenhouse was a Top-15 driver while his average running position was 9. He even placed fifth in Stage 2. While Stenhouse did not threaten Chase Elliott for the win, he ran strongly in the final stage in his second spot.
Quietly, Ricky Stenhouse Jr is having a career season. Through ten races, Stenhouse is about to match the amount of Top-10s he had in 2022. Surprisingly, only one of those Top-10s came at a superspeedway. After his Daytona 500 win, Stenhouse has managed to collected a Top-10 at a short track, road course, and dirt track. Even if Stenhouse did not have his win, he is currently ranked in the Top-16 of the points standings. Based on how well he ran at Dover last season, expect Stenhouse to pick up at least another Top-10 this season in the Wurth 400.
Martin Truex Jr
After winning The Clash, Martin Truex Jr has had himself a quiet season. Truex ranks seventh in points with a Top-5 and three Top-10s. On paper, it has been a solid but unremarkable season. Truex has not sniffed victory lane since The Clash though. Arguably, the closest he has come was his late race surge through the field at Martinsville. Maybe if the race was 500 laps instead 400, Truex could have made some noise. Instead, he had to settle for his lone Top-5 on the season.
For Joe Gibbs Racing, their two veteran drivers have to step up and start producing more than what they currently are doing. Ty Gibbs has more Top-10s this season than both Truex and Denny Hamlin. Could Dover be the place where the two veterans can step up? Last season, both Hamlin and Truex ran well until an incident ruined their day. For Truex Jr, he was spun out by Ross Chastain on the final lap of the race. From a Top-5 finish, Truex fell down the leaderboard to twelfth. When the car had Top-5 speed late, that is a disappointing result.
Dover has been kind to Truex over the years. In his 32 starts, Truex has racked up three wins, eighteen Top-10s, and an average finish of 11.8. Dover would be a great track for Truex to improve upon his quietly unremarkable season.
Chris Buescher
Dover was the first race last season where Chris Buescher demonstrated the improved speed of his 17 car. Buescher grabbed the pole and led the first 34 laps of the race. While he never returned to the top of the leaderboard, he remained in the Top-10 for the whole race. It was the first race in 2022 where Buescher ran more than 90% of the laps within the Top-10. Buescher collected stage points in both Stage 1 and Stage 2. Outside of his win at Bristol, this was clearly the best oval race for Buescher on the season.
For RFK Racing, Dover should be a track where both drivers experience success. With Dover being a larger version of Bristol, both drivers should be able to carry their success from last Fall into this weekend. While it is more of guess with Brad Keselowski, Buescher proved he was able to handle the Monster Mile. Much like Stenhouse, Buescher is a great pick for an underdog for the Wurth 400.
Chase Elliott
All eyes will be on Chase Elliott this weekend. That is not because NASCAR will likely air another commercial about Elliott returning to the track. Instead, it will be due to Elliott’s performance on track as he searches for a win to make the playoffs. While Elliott could theoretically point his way in still, it would be much easier for him to win and get in. Dover has been a race that the 9 team has likely circled on their calendar as a place for Elliott to win.
Last year, Chase Elliott cruised to victory at Dover. He led 73 laps and spent all but one lap within the Top-15. This was Elliott’s second win at the track in his career. In his twelve starts at Dover, Elliott has an average finish of 9.8. Clearly, this track has been kind to Elliott. In the two races since his return, Elliott does not demonstrate any signs of lingering issues with the leg. His return at Martinsville saw Elliott drag his car to a Top-10 finish. If his team can get the setup right, then watch out for Elliott to claim his first victory of 2023 on Sunday (or whenever the race is run).
I’ll be routing for Chase Elliott!!