Time to go back to Kansas, Toto. The NASCAR Cup Series season rolls along into Kansas for the AdventHealth 400. After Dover solidified the contenders from the pretenders, Kansas should continue that trend. Kansas is a standard intermediate track where the racing has been mediocre for the past few seasons. Even with the NextGen car, the racing last year left a bit to be desired. However, Kansas was kind to the Toyotas last year. Not only did they sweep the races (in the 45 car), only two of their cars failed to finish in the Top-10 between the two races. All six Toyotas claimed a Top-10 in this race last year. Needless to say, Toyota should be excited to return to Kansas, especially coming off Martin Truex Jr’s win at Dover.
One manufacturer that needs to get some momentum building is Ford. While Ryan Blaney and the two RFK entries finished in the Top-10 at Dover, the remainder of the Ford field was off the pace (other than Kevin Harvick). Entering the twelfth race this season, Ford has only one victory, which came at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Also, the two powerhouse teams for Ford have looked less than impressive. Other than Blaney and Harvick, Team Penske and Stewart-Haas Racing have been poor. RFK Racing has stepped into the conversation of being the top Ford team this season. As for Kansas, Ford struggled at the track in 2022. Between the two races, only one Ford finished in the Top-10. For the AdventHealth 400 last season, the highest finishing Ford was Austin Cindric in eleventh.
With all that said, who should you be watching this Sunday during race day? Continue reading below to see who are the 5 Drivers to Watch for the AdventHealth400. If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Bubba Wallace
The last race winner at Kansas Speedway was Bubba Wallace. With how well the Toyotas ran here last year, there is no reason to think Wallace is not a contender for the race win. Wallace could use a great race at this point in the season. So far, Wallace has only managed to collect two Top-10s. Not only that, Wallace has been the worst running Toyota this season. His average finish is 2.2 spots worse than rookie Ty Gibbs. Wrecking out at Talladega severely hurt his momentum after a Top-10 at Martinsville. Although he was able to finish on the lead lap at Dover, it was not a great race for him.
With that said, Kansas is coming at perfect time for Bubba Wallace. His last three races have been an improvement (even if not stellar). If he can put together a complete race with a Top-10 finish, then Wallace can ride that momentum through the rest of the regular season. However, his early season woes have been him 154 points back of the cutline. While he has not reached it yet, the “must win” scenario is creeping up on Wallace and his team.
Joey Logano
As mentioned earlier, Team Penske has not been running well this year. Joey Logano has been the perfect example of that recently. At the beginning of the season, Logano looked to be relatively normal. There were some concerning stretches of races here or there, but nothing overtly worrisome. However, the past few weeks have been rough for the reigning Cup Series champion. Since his Atlanta win, Logano has four finishes outside the Top-25 in six races. That number could easily be five if not for Anthony Alfredo turning Martinsville upside down.
Joey Logano was consistently mediocre at Kansas last year. For both races, Logano finished seventeenth. He was able to muster two laps led in the Fall race though. Despite being the last Ford to win at Kansas, do not expect a turn around from Logano this weekend. The intermediates have not been kind to Logano this season. For the AdventHealth 400, expect the same struggles that Logano has been experiencing since his win.
Brad Keselowski
On the flip side of this Ford coin, Brad Keselowski has been having a tremendous bounce back season. After turning into a mid-pack driver in 2022, Keselowski has been one of the best Fords each week. Since missing the main event at The Clash, only COTA has seen Keselowski running poorly this season. For Keselowski, RFK, and Ford fans everywhere, it is a relief to see.
Due to Keselowski’s performance this season, it is difficult to use last year as a metric to this weekend’s success. There have been multiple tracks this season where Keselowski ran poorly in 2022 yet ran Top-10 for the entire race. While Kevin Harvick and Ryan Blaney might be more favorable bets to break Ford’s cold streak this season, Brad Keselowski might be the driver to bring Ford back into victory lane.
Tyler Reddick
Tyler Reddick is driving the car that won both races at Kansas last year. Anything less than a win would be a disappointing for the team. In all seriousness, Reddick finds himself in the best seat come race day. 23XI Racing was able to prep the 45 car to win both races with two different drivers. That is incredibly impressive. Plus, these were no fluke wins. Both races saw the 45 car cruise to victory ahead of the field.
The big question heading into the AdventHealth 400 is whether 23XI can repeat their success. While expecting a win is a bit demanding, it is hard to have much lower expectations due to how well they ran in 2022. If given a well running car, there is no reason to think that Reddick cannot repeat what Busch and Wallace did last year. Watch out for Reddick if that 45 rolls off quick in practice and qualifying on Saturday. The race might be over before it even begins.
Ross Chastain
You cannot say that watching Ross Chastain is a boring endeavor. Last week at Dover, Chastain was too aggressive battling for position with Kyle Larson in the closing laps of Stage 1. With the moving chicane of Brennan Poole in front of him going into turn one, Chastain bumped Poole, causing him to spin out and into Larson. At the end of the race, the double-digit lapped down Larson conveniently had a desire to run Chastain’s line while the watermelon man was chasing down the leader. While the Logano caution kind of neutered Larson’s revenge, it still made the point to Chastain.
Heading into Kansas, Chastain is the points leader. However, he is without a win this year. According to other media outlets, this is alarming since Chastain had two wins at this time last year. Apparently, leading the Cup Series in points is a massive cause for concern. Sarcasm aside, Chastain’s consistency for solid runs (and enraging his rivals) has been a Trackhouse success. For Chastain’s sake, hopefully there are no on track run-ins this weekend. With the title sponsor on the car, maybe there will be a watermelon smash after the AdventHealth 400.
