Thursday, November 21, 2024
HomeCup SeriesCup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: North Wilkesboro/All-Star Race

Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: North Wilkesboro/All-Star Race

Darlington saw a couple of late wrecks that enabled William Byron to pick up his series leading 3rd Win of the season. This week it’s on to the race we have been waiting for all year, the All-Star race at North Wilkesboro Speedway. I have picked 8 notable All-Star drivers to look at, 1 based on the 2023 point standings, 3 based on 2023 stats, 2 based on Short track stats, 1 based on the last All-Star race and 1 based on their overall All-Star stats. Here is a look at those 8 notable drivers 2023 season statistics, along with ranks among drivers in 2023 with ranking through 13 races since the Chase started in 2004. We will also highlight notable streaks accomplished through the year, 2023 Short track (under 1 mile) statistics and All-Star statistics.

1st in Points – Ross Chastain

2023 Stats
Category Statistic 2023 Rank ÂŞRank Thru 13 Races
 Avg. Fin.¹ 12.92 7th of 37 T107th of 816
 Completed Laps%¹ 99.75% 4th of 37 T50th of 816
Laps in Top15%¹ 75.92% 5th of 37 93rd of 773‡
Avg. Driver Rating¹ 94.01 4th of 37 T127th of 773‡
 Wins 0 T10th of 53 T167th of 1113
 Poles 0 T8th of 53 T152nd of 1113
 Top 2’s 1 T7th of 53 T130th of 1113
 Top 3’s 3 T3rd of 53 T69th of 1113
 Top 5’s 5 T2nd of 53 T55th of 1113
 Top 10’s 6 T4th of 53 T144th of 1113
 DNF’sÂą 1 T8th of 37 T181st of 816
 Stage Wins 5 2nd of 53 T5th of 366*
 Stage T10s 17 T1st of 53 T26th of 366*
 Stage Pts 116 2nd of 53 T22nd of 366*
 Playoff Pts² 5 T8th of 53 T48th of 366*

ÂŞSince Playoffs started in 2004
ÂąRanks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 13 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0

  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 2 straight Top 5 finishes
  • 2023 Short Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 39 drivers)
  • 2 Races, Avg. Finish 8.0(5th), 77.75% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 93.9(9th), Best 3rd, Worst 13th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 5.88% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 2 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 4.75 Stage Pts Per Stage
  • All-Star Statistics
  • 2022 All-Star Race
  • Finished 22nd (crash), Started 6th, Led 0 laps
  • Notable All-Star Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ All-Star start)
  • 2 Races
  • 20.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 112th, last)
  • Best Finish: 18th, Worst: 22nd
  • Completed 61.25% of laps (% ranks 109th)
  • Led 0.00% of laps he’s run
  • 0 Top 15’s
  • 1 finish outside Top 20, 50.0% (% ranks T109th)
  • 1 DNF, 50.0% (% ranks T92nd)
Outlook
Ross Chastain is notable because he is 1st in points. Last week Chastain was fast all day and ran all of his laps in the Top 15, but he got into a wreck late going for the lead that put him out of the race and in 29th place at the finish. This was his first DNF this season and raised his Avg. Finish to 12.92, 7th best, but how good he ran helped his Avg. Driver Rating be at 94.01 now, 4th best. In addition to these stats he has ran 76% of his laps in the Top 15, has 3 Top 3’s, 5 Top 5’s, 5 Stage Wins, 17 Stage T10’s, and 116 Stage Pts. All of those stats rank 5th or better in the 2023 Ranks above, but still he has 0 Wins this year. This weekend is the All-Star race so the stats probably won’t matter as Chastain will probably get wrecked out, but nevertheless he has an 8.0 Avg. Finish at Short tracks this year. In addition he’s ran 77.75% of his laps in the Top 15 on these tracks, has a 93.9 Avg. Driver Rating, a worst finish of 13th, and has gotten 4.75 Stage Pts Per Stage. At the All-Star race last year Chastain wrecked out after Kyle Busch had problems and came down the track. This was his 2nd All-Star race and neither of them have been any good as he’s finished 18th and 22nd, leading to the worst Avg. Finish in All-Star history at 20.0. This weekend is not for points but Chastain, it’s been said, has been told to be less aggressive. So, I believe he will get used up this weekend and end up with another DNF and finish outside the Top 15.

4th in Points – Denny Hamlin

2023 Stats
Category Statistic 2023 Rank ÂŞRank Thru 13 Races
 Avg. Fin.¹ 12.31 3rd of 37 91st of 816
 Completed Laps%¹ 100% 1st of 37 T1st of 816
Laps in Top15%¹ 82.05% 1st of 37 40th of 773‡
Avg. Driver Rating¹ 95.18 2nd of 37 T108th of 773‡
 Wins 1 T4th of 53 T63rd of 1113
 Poles 1 T4th of 53 T47th of 1113
 Top 2’s 1 T7th of 53 T130th of 1113
 Top 3’s 1 T12th of 53 T197th of 1113
 Top 5’s 3 T7th of 53 T151st of 1113
 Top 10’s 5 T11th of 53 T201st of 1113
 DNF’sÂą 0 T1st of 37 T1st of 816
 Stage Wins 2 T3rd of 53 T26th of 366*
 Stage T10s 16 T3rd of 53 T36th of 366*
 Stage Pts 91 T3rd of 53 T42nd of 366*
 Playoff Pts² 7 T4th of 53 T26th of 366*

ÂŞSince Playoffs started in 2004
ÂąRanks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 13 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0

  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 2 straight Top 5 finishes
  • 2023 Short Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 39 drivers)
  • 2 Races, Avg. Finish 12.0(11th), 90.0% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 104.85(2nd), Best 4th, Worst 20th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 13.38% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 1 Top 15, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 5.25 Stage Pts Per Stage
  • All-Star Statistics
  • 2022 All-Star Race
  • Finished 2nd, Started 16th, Led 0 laps
  • Notable All-Star Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ All-Star start)
  • 16 Races
  • 10.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks T32nd)
  • Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 23rd
  • Completed 97.13% of laps (% ranks 41st)
  • Led 4.04% of laps he’s run (% ranks 31st)
  • 1 Win, 6.25% (% ranks T17th)
  • 6 Top 5’s, 37.5% (% ranks 18th)
  • 11 Top 10’s, 68.75% (% ranks 21st)
  • 2 finishes outside Top 20, 12.5% (% ranks T96th)
  • 3 DNF’s, 18.75% (% ranks 54th)
Outlook
Denny Hamlin is notable because of his stats this year thru 13 races. Hamlin struggled last week running slightly over half his laps in the Top 15 en route to a P12 finish. This barely budged his Avg. Finish as it now sits at 12.31, 3rd best, but did hurt his Laps in Top15% as it now sits at 82.05, however this still ranks 1st. More impressive stats are that Hamlin is the only driver to run every lap this year, his 95.18 Avg. Driver Rating is 2nd best, and his 2 Stage Wins, 16 Stage T10’s, 91 Stage Pts all rank T3rd. The problem for him has been finishes as he has just 1 Top 3 and only 5 Top 10’s. The same can be said for the 2 Short track races this year as Hamlin has ran 90% of his laps in the Top 15, has a 104.85 Avg. Driver Rating, led 13.38% of his laps, and has 5.25 Stage Pts Per Stage. However, despite the good runs his finishes are 4th and 20th leading to a 12.0 Avg. Finish. In last years All-Star race Hamlin led 0 laps but was so close to his 2nd All-Star win as he finished 2nd. This was his 16th All-Star race and in those races he has a 10.0 Avg. Finish, 1 Win, 6 Top 5’s, and 11 Top 10’s. In addition of the 5 finishes out of the Top 10, 3 were DNF’s, showing he pretty much finishes Top 10 or DNF’s. This weekend I see more of that as Hamlin has shown speed on Short tracks this year and I think that bodes well as he ends up 5th or better in the race.

5th in Points – William Byron

2023 Stats
Category Statistic 2023 Rank ÂŞRank Thru 13 Races
 Avg. Fin.¹ 13.31 8th of 37 T119th of 816
 Completed Laps%¹ 97.74% 17th of 37 T248th of 816
Laps in Top15%¹ 77.62% T3rd of 37 T69th of 773‡
Avg. Driver Rating¹ 103.28 1st of 37 43rd of 773‡
 Wins 3 1st of 53 T7th of 1113
 Poles 2 T1st of 53 T18th of 1113
 Top 2’s 3 T2nd of 53 T37th of 1113
 Top 3’s 4 T1st of 53 T34th of 1113
 Top 5’s 6 1st of 53 T26th of 1113
 Top 10’s 7 T2nd of 53 T90th of 1113
 DNF’sÂą 2 T19th of 37 T418th of 816
 Stage Wins 6 1st of 53 T2nd of 366*
 Stage T10s 17 T1st of 53 T26th of 366*
 Stage Pts 126 1st of 53 12th of 366*
 Playoff Pts² 21 1st of 53 3rd of 366*

ÂŞSince Playoffs started in 2004
ÂąRanks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 13 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0

  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 2 straight Wins
  • 2 straight Top 3 finishes (active streak)
  • 3 straight Top 5 finishes (active streak)
  • 4 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak)
  • 2023 Short Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 39 drivers)
  • 2 Races, Avg. Finish 23.5(T27th), 67.0% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 94.4(7th), Best 23rd, Worst 24th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 14.63% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 0 Top 10’s, 0 Top 15’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 4.75 Stage Pts Per Stage
  • All-Star Statistics
  • 2022 All-Star Race
  • Finished 11th, Started 3rd, Led 2 laps (1.43%)
  • Notable All-Star Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ All-Star start)
  • 4 Races
  • 9.75 Avg. Finish (Ranks 29th)
  • Best Finish: 7th, Worst: 12th
  • Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
  • Led 6.84% of laps he’s run (% ranks 19th)
  • 0 Top 5’s
  • 2 Top 10’s, 50.0% (% ranks T36th)
  • 4 Top 15’s, 100% (% ranks T1st)
  • 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
  • 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
Outlook
William Byron is notable because of his stats in 2023. At Darlington Byron was the benefactor of mistakes by Martin Truex Jr. and Ross Chastain to get his Series high 3rd Win this year. This continued his hot streak as he now has 2 straight Top 3’s, 3 straight Top 5’s, and 4 straight Top 10’s. On the year he has a 13.31 Avg. Finish, 8th best, a 103.28 Avg. Driver Rating, 1st best, and has ran 77.62% of his laps in the Top 15. Additionally his 2 Poles, 4 Top 3’s, 6 Top 5’s, 6 Stage Wins, 17 Stage T10’s, 126 Stage Pts, and 21 Playoff Pts earned from races are all either best or tied best this year. Essentially the stats say Byron has been the best driver this year by far. However, Short tracks have not been as kind to Byron this year. In the 2 races he has finishes of 23rd and 24th while running only 67% of his laps in the Top 15. The good news for him is that he has led 14.63% of his laps, has 4.75 Stage Pts Per Stage, and his 94.4 Avg. Driver Rating is 7th best. So, while he hasn’t finished well, he has ran well. Last year in the All-Star race Byron was 1 of 4 different leaders as he led 2 laps en route to an 11th place finish. This was his 4th All-Star race and in them he has 0 Top 5’s, 2 Top 10’s, a worst finish of 12th and a best finish of 7th. This doesn’t mean much for this track but based on how he’s been this year I think Byron gets another All-Star Top 10 and perhaps his first All-Start Top 5, but I don’t think he wins.

6th in Points – Martin Truex Jr.

2023 Stats
Category Statistic 2023 Rank ÂŞRank Thru 13 Races
 Avg. Fin.¹ 13.38 9th of 37 T122nd of 816
 Completed Laps%¹ 99.58% 6th of 37 T79th of 816
Laps in Top15%¹ 72.68% 7th of 37 123rd of 773‡
Avg. Driver Rating¹ 93.28 5th of 37 138th of 773‡
 Wins 1 T4th of 53 T63rd of 1113
 Poles 1 T4th of 53 T47th of 1113
 Top 2’s 1 T7th of 53 T130th of 1113
 Top 3’s 2 T9th of 53 T120th of 1113
 Top 5’s 2 T15th of 53 T216th of 1113
 Top 10’s 5 T11th of 53 T201st of 1113
 DNF’sÂą 1 T8th of 37 T181st of 816
 Stage Wins 1 T7th of 53 T49th of 366*
 Stage T10s 15 T5th of 53 T44th of 366*
 Stage Pts 71 8th of 53 T60th of 366*
 Playoff Pts² 6 7th of 53 T37th of 366*

ÂŞSince Playoffs started in 2004
ÂąRanks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 13 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0

  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 2 straight Top 10 finishes
  • 2023 Short Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 39 drivers)
  • 2 Races, Avg. Finish 7.0(4th), 77.63% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 94.45(6th), Best 3rd, Worst 11th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 7.0% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 2 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 1.75 Stage Pts Per Stage
  • All-Star Statistics
  • 2022 All-Star Race
  • Finished 14th, Started 7th, Led 0 laps
  • Notable All-Star Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ All-Star start)
  • 12 Races
  • 13.17 Avg. Finish (Ranks 72nd)
  • Best Finish: 2nd, Worst: 22nd
  • Completed 90.61% of laps (% ranks 66th)
  • Led 1.56% of laps he’s run
  • 0 Wins
  • 1 Top 2, 8.33% (% ranks T30th)
  • 1 Top 5, 8.33% (% ranks 52nd)
  • 4 Top 10’s, 33.33% (% ranks T73rd)
  • 8 Top 15’s, 66.67% (% ranks T61st)
  • 1 finish outside Top 20, 8.33% (% ranks T89th)
  • 4 DNF’s, 33.33% (% ranks T73rd)
Outlook
Martin Truex Jr. is notable because of how he’s run this year thru 13 races. At Darlington Truex had a fast fast car, but he damaged it running into Ross Chastain at the end of Stage 2 and then wrecked it near the end of the race resulting in a 31st place finish. This was Truex’s first race this year where he didn’t run all the laps and now has his Avg. Finish at 13.38, 9th best. Additionally his Avg. Driver Rating is 5th best at 93.28 and his 72.68 Laps in Top15% ranks 7th. In fact most of his 2023 Ranks above are 7th or worst including his 2 Top 3’s, 2 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, and 71 Stage Pts. However, this has not been the case at the 2 Short tracks this year as Truex has the 4th best Avg. Finish at 7.0 and 6th best Avg. Driver Rating at 94.45. Furthermore he’s ran 77.63% of his laps in the Top 15 and led 7% of his laps, but also has just 1.75 Stage Pts as well. So, Short tracks have been opposite of his year as a whole as he finishes better than he’s run on them. In the 2022 All-Star race Truex had a mediocre race, finishing 14th. This was Truex’s 12th All-Star race and all of his finishes have been 10th or worst except one. That one was in 2010 where Truex finished in 2nd. In all Truex has struggled in All-Star races but this time it is at a Short track where he has done well this year. So, with that said I see Truex getting himself his 2nd finish of 9th or better in his All-Star race career this weekend.

7th in Points – Ryan Blaney

2023 Stats
Category Statistic 2023 Rank ÂŞRank Thru 13 Races
 Avg. Fin.¹ 12.54 4th of 37 T96th of 816
 Completed Laps%¹ 99.86% 3rd of 37 T30th of 816
Laps in Top15%¹ 71.3% 8th of 37 139th of 773‡
Avg. Driver Rating¹ 85.65 10th of 37 T214th of 773‡
 Wins 0 T10th of 53 T167th of 1113
 Poles 0 T8th of 53 T152nd of 1113
 Top 2’s 2 T5th of 53 T69th of 1113
 Top 3’s 3 T3rd of 53 T69th of 1113
 Top 5’s 3 T7th of 53 T151st of 1113
 Top 10’s 7 T2nd of 53 T90th of 1113
 DNF’sÂą 0 T1st of 37 T1st of 816
 Stage Wins 0 T14th of 53 T84th of 366*
 Stage T10s 10 T10th of 53 T78th of 366*
 Stage Pts 55 12th of 53 T76th of 366*
 Playoff Pts² 0 T17th of 53 T97th of 366*

ÂŞSince Playoffs started in 2004
ÂąRanks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 13 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0

  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 2 straight Top 3 finishes
  • 3 straight Top 10 finishes
  • 2023 Short Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 39 drivers)
  • 2 Races, Avg. Finish 16.5(T16th), 47.31% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 75.3(19th), Best 7th, Worst 26th, Laps Completed 99.88%, Led 0.00% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 1 Top 10, 1 Top 15, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 0 Stage T10’s
  • All-Star Statistics
  • 2022 All-Star Race
  • Finished 1st, Started 2nd, Led 84 laps (60.0%)
  • Notable All-Star Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ All-Star start)
  • 6 Races
  • 9.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 20th)
  • Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 16th
  • Completed 98.42% of laps (% ranks 36th)
  • Led 27.7% of laps he’s run (% ranks 2nd)
  • 1 Wins, 16.67% (% ranks 5th)
  • 2 Top 5’s, 33.33% (% ranks T21st)
  • 5 Top 15’s, 83.33% (% ranks T38th)
  • 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
  • 1 DNF, 16.67% (% ranks T50th)
Outlook
Ryan Blaney is notable because he won last years All-Star race. Last week Blaney had a decent day as he ran around or in the Top 10 most of the day and ended up with a 9th place finish. With this Blaney now has 7 Top 10’s this year with 3 Top 3’s/5’s and 0 DNF’s which altogether gives him a 12.54 Avg. Finish, 4th best this year. His finishes have been better than how he’s ran, however, as he’s only ran 71% of his laps in the Top 15, and his 85.65 Avg. Driver Rating is only 10th best. To further show this point Blaney also has just 10 Stage T10’s and 55 Stage Pts in 26 stages. What’s more is that Blaney’s Avg. Finish in the 2 Short track races this year is 16.5, T16th best, and his 75.3 Avg. Driver Rating is worse than that at 19th best. Additionally he’s only ran 47% of his laps in the Top 15 and he hasn’t finished in the Top 10 in any of the 4 stages. However, there is good news (that doesn’t matter too much since the tracks are completely different from last year to this year) in the fact that Blaney won last years All-Star race and led 60% of the race. This was Blaney’s 6th All-Star start and his 1st Win. In all he has 2 Top 5’s and 5 Top 10’s in the 6 races with a 9.0 Avg. Finish, and that one finish out of the Top 10 was a DNF. Basically the All-Star stats say as long as Blaney doesn’t DNF he will finish Top 10, but he’s not been good at Short tracks this year. For that reason I see Blaney finishing 8th or worse this weekend.

9th in Points – Kyle Larson

2023 Stats
Category Statistic 2023 Rank ÂŞRank Thru 13 Races
 Avg. Fin.¹ 17.08 16th of 37 T283rd of 816
 Completed Laps%¹ 94.67% 30th of 37 451st of 816
Laps in Top15%¹ 70.31% 9th of 37 149th of 773‡
Avg. Driver Rating¹ 94.75 3rd of 37 118th of 773‡
 Wins 2 T2nd of 53 T26th of 1113
 Poles 2 T1st of 53 T18th of 1113
 Top 2’s 4 1st of 53 T14th of 1113
 Top 3’s 4 T1st of 53 T34th of 1113
 Top 5’s 5 T2nd of 53 T55th of 1113
 Top 10’s 5 T11th of 53 T201st of 1113
 DNF’sÂą 4 T33rd of 37 T736th of 816
 Stage Wins 2 T3rd of 53 T26th of 366*
 Stage T10s 15 T5th of 53 T44th of 366*
 Stage Pts 91 T3rd of 53 T42nd of 366*
 Playoff Pts² 12 2nd of 53 T13th of 366*

ÂŞSince Playoffs started in 2004
ÂąRanks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 13 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0

  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 2 straight Top 5 finishes
  • 2023 Short Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 39 drivers)
  • 2 Races, Avg. Finish 1.0(1st), 99.13% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 122.65(1st), Best 1st, Worst 1st, Laps Completed 100%, Led 15.38% of laps he ran, 2 Wins, 0 Poles, 2 Top 3’s, 2 Top 5’s, 2 Top 10’s, 2 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 3.75 Stage Pts Per Stage
  • All-Star Statistics
  • 2022 All-Star Race
  • Finished 24th (last, crash), Started 4th, Led 0 laps
  • Notable All-Star Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ All-Star start)
  • 6 Races
  • 8.5 Avg. Finish (Ranks 17th)
  • Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 24th
  • Completed 82.45% of laps (% ranks 83rd)
  • Led 18.88% of laps he’s run (% ranks 5th)
  • 2 Wins, 33.33% (% ranks 1st)
  • 3 Top 2’s, 50.0% (% ranks 1st)
  • 4 Top 10’s, 66.67% (% ranks T22nd)
  • 1 finish outside Top 20, 16.67% (% ranks 100th)
  • 2 DNF’s, 33.33% (% ranks T73rd)
Outlook
Kyle Larson is notable because he’s won the first 2 Short track races this season. Last week Larson was so close to sweeping the Xfinity/Cup weekend, but alas Ross Chastain got in the way as he swept both drivers up in a wreck on the penultimate restart. This left Larson to finish 20th and dropped his Avg. Finish to 17.08, 16th best. The good thing is that the rest of his stats this year are really good as his 94.75 Avg. Driver Rating ranks 3rd, his 2 Wins rank T2nd, his 2 Poles rank T1st, and his 4 Top 2’s are the most of anyone. The bad thing is that he also has 4 DNF’s, tied for most this year. However, more good news is on the horizon for Larson this weekend as we go to a Short track and all he’s done in those 2 races this year is win. In addition he’s run 99.13% of his laps in the Top 15, has led 15.38% of the laps, and has the best Avg. Driver Rating of anyone at 122.65. At the All-Star race last year Larson was the first driver to crash out of the race and he ended up 24th (last) in the race. This was Larson’s 6th All-Star race and in them he has 4 Top 10’s, 2 DNF’s, 2 Wins, and 3 Top 2’s. Overall he has an 8.5 Avg. Finish while leading 18.88% of his laps, so essentially he either DNF’s or finishes Top 2. This combined with his speed this year and his Short track races this year lead me to believe Larson is the favorite this weekend. At the end of the day I see a Top 5 for Larson (if nothing goes wrong) competing for the win.

12th in Points – Joey Logano

2023 Stats
Category Statistic 2023 Rank ÂŞRank Thru 13 Races
 Avg. Fin.¹ 16.85 15th of 37 T275th of 816
 Completed Laps%¹ 92.44% 33rd of 37 T550th of 816
Laps in Top15%¹ 51.23% 15th of 37 285th of 773‡
Avg. Driver Rating¹ 77.81 14th of 37 302nd of 773‡
 Wins 1 T4th of 53 T63rd of 1113
 Poles 2 T1st of 53 T18th of 1113
 Top 2’s 3 T2nd of 53 T37th of 1113
 Top 3’s 3 T3rd of 53 T69th of 1113
 Top 5’s 3 T7th of 53 T151st of 1113
 Top 10’s 6 T4th of 53 T144th of 1113
 DNF’sÂą 3 T25th of 37 T610th of 816
 Stage Wins 2 T3rd of 53 T26th of 366*
 Stage T10s 8 T13th of 53 T97th of 366*
 Stage Pts 57 11th of 53 T73rd of 366*
 Playoff Pts² 7 T4th of 53 T26th of 366*

ÂŞSince Playoffs started in 2004
ÂąRanks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 13 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0

  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 2 straight Top 5 finishes
  • 2023 Short Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 39 drivers)
  • 2 Races, Avg. Finish 4.5(3rd), 48.75% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 80.1(16th), Best 2nd, Worst 7th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 3.13% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10’s, 2 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 1.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
  • All-Star Statistics
  • 2022 All-Star Race
  • Finished 4th, Started 9th, Led 0 laps
  • Notable All-Star Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ All-Star start)
  • 12 Races
  • 6.17 Avg. Finish (Ranks 8th)
  • Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 22nd
  • Completed 94.73% of laps (% ranks 51st)
  • Led 2.65% of laps he’s run (% ranks 40th)
  • 1 Win, 8.33 (% ranks T11th)
  • 4 Top 3’s, 33.33% (% ranks T8th)
  • 7 Top 5’s, 58.33% (% ranks 6th)
  • 11 Top 10’s, 91.67% (% ranks 11th)
  • 1 finish outside Top 20, 8.33% (% ranks T89th)
  • 1 DNF, 8.33% (% ranks 40th)
Outlook
Joey Logano is notable because of his career All-Star stats. At Darlington Logano ran barely over half the race in the Top 15, but he was up front late until he was the recipient of Truex’s 2nd mistake of the race which had Logano end up 18th. This puts his Avg. Finish at 16.85 this year, 15th best, and his Avg. Driver Rating at 77.81, 14th best. Furthermore Logano has only ran 92% of the laps this year and of those laps only 51.23% of them have been spent in the Top 15. Continuing on he also has just 8 Stage Top 10’s with 57 Stages Pts in 26 stages this year. However, it’s not all been bad for him as he has 1 Win, 2 Poles, 3 Top 2’s, 6 Top 10’s, and 2 Stage Wins. Now back to bad news, though, for Logano as in the 2 Short track races this year he has an 80.1 Avg. Driver Rating and has run just 49% of his laps in the Top 15. Despite these bad stats he’s finished well in the races as he’s finished 2nd and 7th in the 2 races leading to the 3rd best Avg. Finish at 4.5. In last years All-Star race Logano ended up 4th. This was his 12th All-Star race and his 7th Top 5 in those races. In addition he’s won 1 race, has 4 Top 3’s, and his only finish out of the Top 10 was a DNF. This has his All-Star Avg. Finish at 6.17, the best of any active driver with 2+ All-Star starts. However, this All-Star race is a Short track and Logano’s struggled on them this year. So I see him not even close to winning this weekend, finishing 8th or worse.

16th in Points – Chase Briscoe

2023 Stats
Category Statistic 2023 Rank ÂŞRank Thru 13 Races
 Avg. Fin.¹ 18.0 18th of 37 T331st of 816
 Completed Laps%¹ 98.25% 14th of 37 T218th of 816
Laps in Top15%¹ 38.5% 20th of 37 374th of 773‡
Avg. Driver Rating¹ 66.55 21st of 37 438th of 773‡
 Wins 0 T10th of 53 T167th of 1113
 Poles 0 T8th of 53 T152nd of 1113
 Top 2’s 0 T16th of 53 T265th of 1113
 Top 3’s 0 T19th of 53 T337th of 1113
 Top 5’s 3 T7th of 53 T151st of 1113
 Top 10’s 4 T15th of 53 T269th of 1113
 DNF’sÂą 1 T8th of 37 T181st of 816
 Stage Wins 0 T14th of 53 T84th of 366*
 Stage T10s 7 16th of 53 T109th of 366*
 Stage Pts 28 20th of 53 T119th of 366*
 Playoff Pts² 0 T17th of 53 T97th of 366*

ÂŞSince Playoffs started in 2004
ÂąRanks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 13 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0

  • Notable Streaks this year
  • 3 straight Top 5 finishes
  • 2023 Short Track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 39 drivers)
  • 2 Races, Avg. Finish 8.5(6th), 88.0% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 103.65(3rd), Best 5th, Worst 12th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 13.63% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 2 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 4.0 Stage Pts Per Stage
  • All-Star Statistics
  • 2022 All-Star Race
  • Finished 18th, Started 111th, Led 0 laps
  • Notable All-Star Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ All-Star start)
  • 1 Race
  • 18.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 107th)
  • Best Finish: 18th, Worst: 18th
  • Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
  • Led 0.00% of laps he’s run
  • 0 Top 15’s
  • 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
  • 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
Outlook
Chase Briscoe is notable because of how he’s run in the 2 Short tracks this year. At Darlington Briscoe ran 5 of his 295 laps in the Top 15 and finished 17th. This, however, helped his Avg. Finish this year and moved it to 18.0, 18th best. This along with his 66.55 Avg. Driver Rating, ranks 21st, and the fact he’s ran just 38.5% of his laps in the Top 15 show how much of a struggle this year has been. The nice thing is that earlier this year he had 3 straight Top 5’s and on the year has 4 Top 10’s. Unfortunately that’s all that is good as even stages have been a struggle as he has just 7 Stage T10’s and 28 Stage Pts this year. Now for the good news, this weekend is a Short track. In the 2 Short track races this year Briscoe has an 8.5 Avg. Finish, 6th best, and a 103.65 Avg. Driver Rating, 3rd best. Moreover he’s ran 88% of his laps in the Top 15 and led 13.63% of his laps while getting 4.0 Stage Pts Per Stage. Last years All-Star race was Briscoe’s first of his career and in it he finished 18th. So, with everything having been said it’s been a struggle this year for Brisoce, but the All-Star race being at a Short track could be helpful for him. For that reason I see him coming home with a finish between 6th and 15th this weekend.
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Daniel Smith
Daniel Smithhttps://pitpassnetwork.com
Cup drivers: Kyle Larson & Ross Chastain, Xfinity drivers: SVG & Ryan Sieg, Truck drivers: Grant Enfinger & Jake Garcia

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