As with most sports, the NASCAR All-Star race falls exactly halfway through the regular season. The difference for NASCAR is that their “playoffs” are still part of the greater season as a whole. So the Cup Series gets split into semi-equal thirds: 13 race first half, 13 race second half, and a 10 race playoff. Since the All-Star Race is a natural break in the schedule, it feels like an appropriate time to review the season thus far. More than a simple overview, this article is going to examine the Cup Serieswinners and losers for 2023 so far.
A quick note about the process for this article. Not every driver and team will be featured in here. That does not mean they are not having a good or bad season. This article is looking to highlight the notable stories from the season thus far. For the winners, that could include dominance, surprises, and silly season rumors. Meanwhile, losers can include disappointments, lack of progression, and worrisome red flags that need to be addressed. There will be two more articles of Cup Series winners and losers: one after the regular season wraps and one after the championship race at Phoenix. With that admin out of the way, time to see who the winners and losers from the first half of 2023.
Losers
It is always wise to start with the negative and end with the positive. For fans of the following picks, the positives might not aid the sting of finding your driver or team in the loser section. Do not blame the article; blame them for their 2023 woes.
Ford Performance
Through 13 races this season, the combined wins for all Ford drivers in the Cup Series is one. One measly win from Joey Logano at Atlanta back in March. Even considering the other two series, Ford’s win total only grows to four with Zane Smith’s two truck wins and Logano’s truck win at Bristol dirt. Ford has no wins in the Xfinity Series. Meanwhile, Chevy has collected eight wins and Toyota has managed to win three. Ford is clearly lagging behind in the win department.
This is not to say that everything Ford has been terrible. If the playoffs were to begin today, Ford would be represent half the field: Logano, Kevin Harvick, Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselwoski, Chris Buescher, and Chase Briscoe. However, only four of those drivers have been consistent Top-10 runners all season. That list does not include Logano either. The lack of wins and the overall lack of speed, especially at certain tracks, has been noticeable. Plus, the former Ford powerhouse teams seem to have taken a step back this season.
Team Penske
Barring seventeen winners, Team Penske should have two drivers in the playoffs. However, the team has been a far cry from what people expect. Out of the three driver stable, Blaney has been the only one looking as strong as a Penske entry should look. However, his winless streak is still ongoing and his start to the season was mediocre. Even Blaney has not been able to fully shed the mediocrity that Penske has put out.
Meanwhile, Joey Logano has fallen off a cliff speed wise since his Atlanta win. Despite a couple of Top-10s, Logano has barely been a contender most weeks recently. His solid finishes have come strictly down to pit strategy and well timed cautions. With Logano’s talent, it is concerning that luck has played into good results more so than driver skill and speed. Logano’s lack of performance is the most concerning thing out of the Penske camp. Everyone expects Logano to be running Top-10 every weekend. Instead, there have been races where he is fighting to stay on the lead lap.
Then there is Austin Cindric. The 2022 Daytona 500 winner is in the middle of a sophomore slump. With only two Top-10s on the season, Cindric currently ranks twentieth in points. Since his Top-10 at COTA, Cindric has more finishes outside the Top-20 (5) than inside (2). Whatever is going on at Penske, it seems the Cindric is bearing the brunt of it. At this point, it is a longshot that Cindric makes the playoffs.
Stewart-Haas Racing
It is appropriate to officially stamp Stewart-Haas Racing as the third best Ford team. Outside of Kevin Harvick, SHR has been a shell of its former self. Sure, Chase Briscoe has had great speed at times this season. Ryan Preece leading at Martinsville was a brief moment of success for the 41 team. Aric Almirola is still there. Other than that, the 2023 season (so far) has been another down year for SHR.
The debate between Preece or Cole Custer in the 41 seemingly was all for nothing. Almirola’s return to the 10 has not produced the consistent results from his first few seasons with the team. Briscoe had a strong stretch from Phoenix to Talladega, but he has been completely off the pace the past three weeks. Briscoe’s performances since Dover have seen him run laps behind Rick Ware Racing. When looking at SHR without Harvick, it is a stark reminder of how badly the veteran is keeping the SHR name relevant. If Briscoe can be more consistent, then it would not be as bad. However, running outside the Top-30 for a portion of Darlington is not a great way to inspire confidence.
Since 2020, Stewart Haas Racing has not been the same dominant Ford team. For fans of the team, there has to be strong fear about the status of that team once Harvick retires.
Legacy Motor Club
When it was announced that Jimmie Johnson was buying ownership stake into Petty-GMS Racing, everyone thought that it might be the shot in the arm to take Petty back to relevancy. 2022 was a great season for Petty-GMS. Erik Jones ran better than he did in 2021, including winning the Southern 500. Though Ty Dillon never contended for Top-5s, the 42 was usually competing for a Top-20. With Noah Gragson joining the team in 2023, that seemed to be an improvement in talent for the 42 team. On paper, 2023 should have picked up and improved upon where 2022 left off. Then they changed the name to Legacy Motor Club. It was all downhill from there.
At this moment, both Legacy Motor Club drivers sit outside the Top-20 in points. Noah Gragson is second-to-last among drivers who have run every race. If Justin Haley still had his 75 point penalty applied, he would rank ahead of Gragson. Chase Elliott missed six races and he is ahead of Gragson. The Rookie of the Year battle that everyone was excited about has become a laugher. Ty Gibbs looks competent. Meanwhile, Gragson’s most notable moment of the season was when he got decked by the watermelon farmer. While expectations should have been kept low for Gragson, he has massively underperformend. Ty Dillon easily outdrove him in the same equipment last year.
Meanwhile, Erik Jones has been slow all season. Last year, Jones had speed at a variety of tracks. Two of the first three races last season saw Jones running in/near the Top-5. This year, the only non-superspeedway Jones has looked good at is Darlington. Even there, Jones lost a tire on a restart and caused a massive wreck. Even Jimmie Johnson cannot escape the skank of his own team. In his two starts this year, Johnson has yet to see the checkered flag.
Of course, a win by either driver could put a giant smiley-face sticker over the train wreck 2023 has been. However, the only way that is happening currently is at superspeedway, especially for Gragson. If you want to believe in conspiracy theories, maybe sucking was part of the plan so they could make the move to Toyota.
Hendrick Motorsports – Injuries
In modern day NASCAR, injuries do not usually effect the season the way they did once before. Outside of the NextGen concussions, that sentiment remains intact this season. However, injuries have hit Hendrick Motorsports hard this year. Both Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman sustained injuries away from the Cup Series. Elliott fractured his leg snowboarding before the Las Vegas race. Meanwhile, Bowman fractured his vertebra running a dirt race prior to Dover’s race. While Elliott has returned, Bowman’s timetable for his return is unknown as of this writing.
Both drivers are championship contenders. Bowman was battling Ross Chastain for the points lead before his injury. When Bowman returns, he will likely be in a similar place to Elliott: must-win. The other two Hendrick drivers have already clinched their playoff spots. With the road course portion of the schedule upcoming, Elliott’s win seems inevitable (especially with how well he has been running). Meanwhile, Bowman’s path to the playoffs is a bit more murky. While a Hendrick car always has a chance of winning, Bowman had not been battling for the wins like Kyle Larson and William Byron. Could this year be the first year a Hendrick driver misses the playoffs since Jimmie Johnson in 2020?
Austin Dillon
What is going on with Austin Dillon? Currently, the RCR driver sits thirty-first in points. The only full-time drivers Dillon leads is Gragson and his brother Ty. The addition of Kyle Busch to RCR was supposed to be a boon for Dillon. Outside of his second place at The Clash, Dillon’s 2023 has been a complete disaster. Dillon has more DNFs (4) than Top-10s. None of Dillon’s Top-10s have come at superspeedways, which is unusual for the driver.
While nobody expects greatness from Austin Dillon, to call this season a disappointment is a massive understatement. Dillon is usually a Top-20 driver (both on track and in the points). Even with that, Dillon receives a lot of flack from fans who cry nepotism about his placement at RCR. Until this season, a lot of that outcry was unfounded. However, this season is not helping his case. What else is not helping Dillon is back to back multi-win seasons out of the 8 car. Between the two, Tyler Reddick and Kyle Busch have found victory lane five times since 2022. Meanwhile, Dillon’s lone win was due to NASCAR’s failure with the rain at Daytona in the summer.
Kaulig Racing
AJ Allmendinger’s comeback has been a bit of bust so far. Once again, the 75-point penalized driver Haley sits ahead of Allmendinger in the points. What a weird NASCAR world. Despite this, it is too early to count Allmendinger out of it. His stretch of the season is upcoming with four road course races before the regular season ends. Between the Indy road course and the Chicago Street Race, Allmendinger could pull out a victory. Other than, his season has been real bad.
Meanwhile, Kaulig Racing and Justin Haley got burnt by the appeals panel. While Hendrick Motorsports got out of their points penalty, Haley and Kaulig still received the majority of their deductions. Luckily, the final appeals rescinded their penalty, but the drama fro the incident is still a negative. Outside the points penalty, Haley has not taken the step forward that many were hoping for. His average finish is 20, which is 1.6 spots worse than last year. With his seat not guaranteed for next year, could Kaulig look to replace Haley in the 31? At this point, they need to try something else if the results do not improve.
Also, Chandler Smith failed to qualify for the Daytona 500. For a team that seemed to be on the rise, 2023 has been a setback so far.
Winners
Hendrick Motorsports – Kyle Larson & William Byron
Despite having two of their drivers injured for portions of this short season, Hendrick Motorsports is having a great 2023 with Kyle Larson and William Byron. Combined, the two drivers have won five races. Byron is in the middle of a career year. In addition to setting his career high in wins, he already has more Top-5s (6) so far this season than he did in 2022 (5). This season, he is establishing himself as a true threat for the Cup Series Championship. On track, Byron has shown great speed, especially early in races. If he wants to advance to his first Championship Four, his team and him will need to figure out a better way to maintain his speed for the length of a race. Eventually, his luck will run out with late race cautions.
Meanwhile, Kyle Larson is getting back to his 2021 form. Despite winning three races last season, 2022 left a little bit of doubt about how dominant Larson would in the NextGen car. Looking at Larson in 2023, it is clear that Larson can replicate his speed from 2021. If not for unlucky breaks, Larson could easily have five wins this season. In almost every race, Larson has shown race winning speed. To contrast Byron, Larson and his team seem to find the speed as the race goes on versus immediately.
Even if Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman fail to win their way into the playoffs, Hendrick Motorsports will have the two front runners for the championship. At this rate, it would be a bit surprising if both drivers failed to make it to the Championship Four. Unless Ross Chastain continues to be a thorn in Larson’s side.
Silly Season Boosts
Silly season for NASCAR is a season-long story. Even before the 2023 season started, fans and media had an eye toward 2024. With the potential for numerous high profile seats being open, there was a bit of buzz about the potential free agents. Then prior to the Daytona 500, Ross Chastain and Alex Bowman both signed extensions with their current teams, taking some fun out of silly season. However, there are still intriguing stories and drivers to track.
There have been a handful of drivers who have boosted their stock based on their 2023 performances. These drivers went from afterthoughts to candidates to land notable rides. For these drivers, they have taken the opportunities in front of them and better themselves for (potentially) better rides in 2024.
Josh Berry
Currently the rumored pick to replace Kevin Harvick in the 4 car is Josh Berry. Before the start of the season, Berry’s name was not even on the radar for potential suitors for Harvick’s ride. However, Berry has fully taken advantage of the opportunities to fill-in for Hendrick’s injured drivers. One team’s strife is another man’s opportunity.
Berry has been impressive in the Hendrick equipment. Remember, on short notice, Berry took over for Chase Elliott in the NextGen car, a car he had never driven before. During his five race tenure in the 9 car, Berry managed a Top-5 at Richmond and a Top-10 at Phoenix. In his first race in the 48, Berry collected another Top-10 at Dover. His Cup Series success has seemingly led to a fulltime ride next year for Stewart-Haas Racing. With Rodney Childress returning to SHR, maybe the drop off will not be as severe as theorized. If you are worried still, it might be best if you do not look up Berry’s results from the past two weekends.
Todd Gilliland
At the start of the year, Todd Gilliland lost his fulltime ride in the 38. Due to the emergence of Zane Smith, Front Row decided to boot Gilliland out of his ride for five races so Smith could drive them instead. While it would have been understandable for Gilliland to be sluggish in 2023 with that news, it seemed to have motivated him. In 2023, he already has more Top-10s than last season and has improved his average finish by four spots. There have been races where Gilliland has been running inside the Top-10 (rather than having a fluke Top-10 finish). Gilliland is showing great progression in his sophomore season. With Front Row seemingly going to choose Smith over Gilliland, it would not be surprising to see Gilliland land a better ride next season.
Corey LaJoie
How can a driver who only has one Top-10 on the season be considered a winner? Easy, be a Spire driver who has improved his average finishing position by four positions. Corey LaJoie is in the middle of a career season. While his stat line is not going to wow anyone, the pace he has been running this season has been impressive. LaJoie has been consistently running in the Top-20 for most of the season. While the past few weeks has seen him fall down the order a bit, the first third of 2023 has been a vast improvement. Though there is strong doubt that LaJoie would leave Spire, LaJoie should be seen as a legitimate candidate for any better Cup Series ride that opens up.
RFK Racing
While the other Ford teams have been struggling, RFK Racing has been making great strides in 2023. As Brad Keselowski alluded to last season, it usually takes him a season to adjust to a new team. When he first joined Penske, Keselowski struggled in his season before breaking out the following season. This seems to be his pattern now. Keselowski took the brunt of a bad season. However, that bad season allowed Keselowski to play the long game to turn RFK around. Keselowski and company have turned around the culture at RFK. Now, the results are being seen on track.
While neither RFK driver has been to victory lane yet this season, both are driving significantly better than they did in 2022. Keselowski has already surpassed his 2022 statistics. Meanwhile, Buescher is on track to have his best season of his career with his best stretch of tracks upcoming. The question about 2023’s first win seems to more about when rather than if. Buescher could snag one at a road course. Bristol in the Fall is a good option as well. Keselowski has looked great on intermediates (other than Kansas). Of course, superspeedways are always a great choice. It is refreshing that the options are more than simply Daytona, Talladega, and the bad version of Atlanta.
An argument could be made that RFK is the best Ford team in the field. Taking the top two drivers from each Ford team, RFK stacks up well currently. Team Penske have the edge in terms of points, but the eyeball test says that RFK has been better on track.
