Hot Shot Rookies: How Have Things Changed?

Since the 1999 season with the arrival of the open-wheel star Tony Stewart with Joe Gibbs Racing, the idea of who is considered to be a prospect for a successful rookie has changed quite a bit. The idea of the “hot shot” rookie coming into the Cup Series has evolved into drivers who use the main series to fully develop as the years wore on.

The current crop of veterans started to arrive in 1999-2009. Drivers like Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin all came to Cup and delivered. Not only winning the coveted ROTY honors, but winning races as well. Most of this group has gone on to win championships and many still make up the annual list of championship contenders in 2023.  Other drivers during this time frame also arrived as possible contenders, having great success despite not winning ROTY. Drivers like Jamie McMurray Kasey Kahne, Paul Menard, David Ragan, Jimmie Johnson, and even Dale Jr. himself would all see great careers at stock car racing’s top level for years that followed.

The ABC (ARCA-Busch or Truck-Cup) Program is likely the biggest influence on the drivers of this era, as it would give development drivers with various Cup affiliated programs the opportunity to run races in all three series before moving up. This program would also give such drivers the chance to stray from their racing routes and gain experience on new or larger tracks.  

As stock car racing and drivers started to evolve from the 2010-2012 season, a shift began to occur. Drivers such as Kevin Conway, Andy Lally, and Stephen Leicht all won ROTY honors with little or no competition, and struggling just to compete most weekends. With the exceptions of Cole Custer (2020) and Austin Cindric (2022), Joey Logano was the last driver to win in his debut season (2009). 

2013-2018 saw the arrival of the modern field of Cup drivers with the likes of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.,  Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Erik Jones, William Byron and many others. These drivers spent a few seasons gaining experience before their respective first wins arrived, which is a dramatic shift from drivers like Stewart winning races right away and ruffling some feathers along with it. 

2019 saw drivers that are just starting to come into their own as Cup drivers the last season or two. Many of these drivers such as Christopher Bell, Ryan Preece, and Ross Chastain made their cup debuts or spent their inaugural seasons with lower-tier teams such as Rick Ware Racing and Leavine Family Racing. 

This season (2023) again sees a season short on rookie contenders with only two. Ty Gibbs and Noah Gragson who were-championship contending Xfinity drivers have struggled to gain a footing in the Cup Series thus far, with both only having limited starts in 2022.

The change? Drivers have evolved from aggressive, highly-touted incoming rookies to drivers that spend their rookie season learning and adapting to the modern-day Cup Series with limited previous experience.

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ROTY WINNERS AND CONTENDERS (SINCE 1999):