After a one week hiatus, the NASCAR Cup Series returns this weekend with the Ally 400 at the Nashville Superspeedway. As the broadcast will shift from FOX to NBC, the Cup Series will entering the final ten race stretch before the playoffs. Currently, the points battle for the last playoff spot is tight. Alex Bowman only has a three point edge on Daniel Suarez. Meanwhile, Austin Cindric only sits thirty-three points back while in twenty-first place. However, all of that can be ruined by a new winner on the Cup circuit. More than likely, there will be a handful of new winners before the Southern 500. Bowman, Bubba Wallace, and the RFK duo might be sweating that cutoff line if new winners (from behind) start racking up wins. Could Nashville be the host to the eleventh different winner this season?
For the first two Cup Series races at the Nashville Superspeedway, Hendrick Motorsports dominated. Between the two races, Hendrick drivers led a total of 277 laps. Kyle Larson won in the previous generation of car while Chase Elliott claimed victory last year. If this trend continues, there is a fifty-fifty chance that there will be a new winner. In the NextGen car, the other manufacturers put up better fights against the Chevys. Toyota led the most laps while Ford had four cars inside the Top-10. For this year’s Ally 400, could there be a different manufacturer winning? Based on the current storylines, trends, and previous results, it is time to look at who will be the five drivers to watch for this weekend’s Ally 400.
If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Chase Elliott
Until he wins a race, Chase Elliott will always be one to watch over the next ten weekends. With his six week absence due to injury and his one week suspension for WWT Raceway, Elliott is in a must win scenario. While he could (in theory) point his way in still, there is a significant chance a new winner (or two) will occur from outside the current top sixteen. Any movement for the points cutoff up the board puts more pressure on Elliott to win one of the remaining races.
Luckily for Elliott, he is the reigning race winner at Nashville. In both races at Nashville, Elliott ran well. Unfortunately in 2021, Elliott was disqualified after the race due to having five loose lug nuts. In 2022, Elliott took the lead on lap 262 from Kyle Busch and never relinquished it. Despite a late race restart, he was able to hang on for the win. With how well Hendrick Motorsports has run at Nashville, it would not be surprising to see Elliott win his second guitar.
Chase Briscoe
From one Chase to another, Chase Briscoe is in desperation mode for any chance at the playoffs. After getting docked 120 points, Briscoe can only win his way into the playoffs. Even with winning his way in, his odds of advancing still hinge on him winning.. Now faced with the adversity, Stewart-Haas Racing has made a major crew chief switch to help Briscoe. John Klausmeier has been bumped to the team’s performance group.
Reuniting with Chase Briscoe is Richard Boswell. Last time Briscoe and Boswell worked together, the pair won eight races in 2020 in the Xfinity Series. Hopefully, the two can clink in the same way in the Cup Series. Outside of the penalty, Briscoe could use more consistency in his runs. Since Talladega, the 14 car has been consistently running outside the Top-20. While Boswell will likely not solve all the problems, maybe he can help Briscoe regain his earlier season form, starting this weekend during the Ally 400.
Christopher Bell
The schedule hiatus for the NASCAR Cup Series arrived at a beneficial spot for Christopher Bell. During the first stretch of the season, Bell looked to be the top Toyota and a serious championship contender. Since his win at Bristol Dirt though, Bell has lost a bit of his momentum. After back-to-back Top-10s at Talladega and Dover, Bell failed to collect at Top-10 until Sonoma. Early in that race, Bell looked strong. However, his speed faded quickly during the closing laps. Bell went from a Top-5 run to almost falling out of the Top-10.
With the break, maybe Christopher Bell can recapture the race winning speed. Nashville has been a decent track for the JGR driver. In both Cup Series races, Bell has collected two ninth place finishes. Toyota ran strongly at Nashville last year, which could mean seeing Bell run up front again. While Martin Truex Jr has been the dominate driver from the Toyota camp since Dover, Bell is still a leading candidate to be top driver for the manufacturer. However, he needs to back it up on track soon.
Ross Chastain
It appears that the conversations post Darlington have taken some steam away from Ross Chastain. While the lack of controversy is great for the Melon Man, he has been noticeably absent from the front of the pack. Charlotte and Gateway saw Chastain finish outside the Top-20. Meanwhile, his Top-10 at Sonoma played more from pit cycle lucking his way rather than raw speed.
During this down stretch in the season, Chastain must welcome Nashville with excitement. He has consecutive Top-5s at the track. His second place finish in 2021 was the first race where many fans took notice of his talent. Bringing a Chip Ganassi car to a well-ran second place finish was a rarity post Kyle Larson. Despite the strong runs, Chastain has only led four laps at Nashville. After the break, it would not be surprising to see Chastain drive with more of that patented Melon Man aggression. His winless season might end come Sunday.
Michael McDowell
Coming off consecutive Top-10s, Michael McDowell will be an interesting watch in the Ally 400. His two starts at Nashville have netted him Top-20 finishes. However, he might be lined up to breakthrough into the Top-10. After losing crew chief Blake Harris to Hendrick Motorsports, McDowell’s 2023 has been a bit of step backward for the team. However, McDowell has still been able to keep the car on the track (only one DNF) and his recent performances have shown promise.
Even if McDowell does not have the speed to warrant a Top-10, crew chief Travis Peterson is willing to do bold moves to gain track position. At WWT Raceway, Peterson stuck with a two-tire strategy that moved and kept McDowell in the Top-10. Would a similar strategy be in play at Nashville? Is there a different strategy they could deploy to help McDowell? If there is something outside the box to use, Peterson and McDowell will likely go with it. A playoff spot is not out of touch for the 34 team. While a road course win might be the best pathway, consistent runs could see McDowell point his way in.
