The NASCAR Cup Series has a great looking playoff picture post-Atlanta. After William Byron’s fourth win of the season, the cutline remained around the same drivers. However, Daniel Suarez and Michael McDowell have pushed themselves past Bubba Wallace and Ty Gibbs. The difference between Suarez and McDowell (who are tied for fifteenth) compared to the first driver on the outside (Wallace) is only three points. Even if there is a winner from outside the current playoff standings, the playoff picture is shaping up to be an exciting one. There are six drivers within 38 points of each other. Another three within 60 points, with two of those drivers being Hendrick Motorsport entries. NASCAR likely could not be happier with the playoff picture right now.
That is, until you realize that Brad Keselowski (who currently sits fourteenth in playoff standings) holds a 97 point advantage to Daniel Suarez and Michael McDowell. With seven races left before the playoffs, the current points situation is clearly demonstrating the clear divide between teams. While NASCAR boasts parity due to various winners, the tale of the points clearly has a different story. The dominant teams and drivers are remaining dominant over the others. Though there has been some movement of which drivers/teams are performing well, there is a vast divide between the top fourteen in points and everyone else. It is exciting to have a cutline so close, but the teams who will point their way in are seemingly being setup for a quick playoff exit.
Examining the Playoff Picture
Post-Atlanta, the drivers who have clinched a spot via winning (barring chaos over the next seven races) are William Bryon, Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Each of those eleven drivers are also in the top sixteen in points earned this season. Stenhouse (who is having a career year) is the lowest, sitting fourteenth in points.
Kevin Harvick (134), Chris Buescher (102), and Brad Keselowski (100) are each 100 points or more above the cutoff line. For all effective purposes, Harvick is clinched. There would have to be a new winner in six of the remaining races or Harvick missing at least three races for the retiring driver to lose his spot. Could it happen? Sure, but it is almost a certainty for it not to happen. Buescher and Keselowski are a bit more precarious, but only slightly. The RFK duo have a two driver buffer from the cutoff line. Two new winners would not put them in danger of losing the points battle. However, a third new winner (from behind them in points) would see a new interesting points battle between them.
Then there is the cutoff line. As mentioned earlier, Daniel Suarez and Michael McDowell hold a three point edge on Bubba Wallace. Meanwhile, AJ Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs, Austin Cindric, Justin Haley, Alex Bowman, and Chase Elliott all have a shot to point their way in. Elliott, who has the toughest hill to climb, is 60 points back.
In a vacuum, this looks to be an exciting fight to the finish. If no new winner behind Keselowski occurs before Darlington, this cutoff line should remain close. Plus, there are plenty of storylines for NBC to shout at you about during the broadcast. Can rookie Ty Gibbs make the playoffs? Will Chase Elliott complete the inevitable comeback? Could a road course ringer point their way in? How about the shock if two Hendrick cars miss the playoffs. Wait a second.
Hendrick Injuries Spark Competitiveness
All of the excitement of the playoff picture is nice but it only exists because of injuries to Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman. If those two drivers never get injured, the points battle would be meaningless. Based on points, the field would be set. Drivers from seventeenth on back would be forced to win to get into the playoffs. While nobody would ever wish injury on anyone, NASCAR cannot be unhappy that the injuries have helped build excitement for the playoff battle.
Based on how well Elliott has been running since his return from injury, it would be an easy assumption that he would be at least 100 points up on the cutoff line if he ran the entire season. Since returning from injury, Elliott’s worst finish (minus the Coke 600) was last night’s thirteenth. Even with lacking the race winning speed many expect from Elliott, he has been one of the best drivers on track since returning. Based on how well he has run, he has a legitimate chance of pointing his way in. He even gave the field an extra race to build up their lead by getting suspended for wrecking Denny Hamlin.
Meanwhile, Alex Bowman was having a career season in terms of consistency prior to his concussion. Was he usually a race winning threat? Not really. Despite that, Bowman was Captain Consistency. Outside of Bristol Dirt, Bowman’s worst finish in the first ten races was fourteenth. Bowman built up such a point lead on the cutline field that he was only five points out of a playoff spot after missing three races. While Bowman has been running poorly in his return, his absence in three races this season is the only reason why he is on the outside looking in currently.
Tale of Three Types of Teams
This season has demonstrated that the “parity” NASCAR is hoping to achieve is nonsense. The top sixteen drivers are set. If not for injuries, there would be no questioning the playoff picture. Brad Keselowski would be “clinging” to the sixteenth spot 100 points ahead of Daniel Suarez and Michael McDowell. This season has clearly drawn a line between the teams this year. For 2023, NASCAR has the quality teams, the mediocre bunch, and the dregs. Who makes up each group?
For the contenders, it is who should be the top sixteen in points. All of Hendrick Motorsports, two-thirds of Penske, all non-rookies from JGR, RFK, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, and the solo success stories from struggling teammates (Chastain, Harvick, and Reddick). Stenhouse is the outlier in this group as he sits 30 points behind Reddick and does not have a stage win. Reddick trails the RFK duo, but that is more so bad luck (especially late) rather than speed issues. Even if he is the outlier, Stenhouse’s 2023 has been a career year and still ranks him in the top fourteen in points. Every other driver (minus Bowman) in this group has at least seven Top-10s and a stage win.
While some of the contending teams have been stronger than others, the top twelve in points are relatively competitive with each other. The difference in points between Busch (third in points) to Keselowski is only 97 points. There is a closer gap between third and twelfth than twelfth to fifteen. That is a shockingly lack of depth in the Cup Series.
Meanwhile, the mediocre bunch consists of the drivers from Daniel Suarez to Corey LaJoie in points (except bumping Elliott and Bowman to contenders). You can throw in Chase Briscoe to this group as he would be in this points range if not for his 120 point penalty. Even if they make the playoffs, none of these drivers would be expected to advance from the Round of 16. Could they? Of course. The new playoff format severely punishes drivers/teams who suffer from bad luck. Last year, Kyle Busch, Tyler Reddick, and Kevin Harvick were penned to advance deep into the playoffs only to be eliminated in the first round due to poor luck.
The drivers in this category have the capability of putting together strong runs as well. Bubba Wallace had three straight Top-5s earlier this season. Chase Briscoe has multiple Top-5s. Daniel Suarez started the season off with three straight Top-10s. The issue here is not the lack of potential, but the lack of legitimate competitiveness in the playoffs. These drivers/teams are similar to seven seeds in March Madness. Could they upset a team or two and go on a run? Sure. Will they? Probably not.
Then there are the dregs. Teams who can only win their way in and waste a spot for the rest of the field (or worse).
Positives From the Situation
Now, this whole situation is not completely negative. Sure, the artificial drama of the playoff picture for mid drivers in 2023 is not ideal. For some, it might take away the legitimacy of the playoffs (if NASCAR has not done that itself). Plus, a Chase Elliott road course win and Aric Almirola triumph at New Hampshire can utterly spoil the fun. Despite that, the current playoff picture and cutline situation has one massive positive. The nine drivers near the cutline will not jeopardize points for stupid-aggressive driving (potentially).
Since there are two spots within reach for nine drivers, they will not completely throw caution to the wind. Some bold calls from their crew chiefs might happen, like McDowell stretching fuel with rain on the way. However, the current cutline will likely prevent those nine drivers from doing something stupid on track. At least, not until Daytona. Wrecking a driver or trying to dumb move to win a race could completely ruin a driver’s chance for the playoffs. This should mean cleaner driving on track. Aggressive moves will still occur, but it will likely not be chaotic moves. A close playoff cutline should be better racing.
All of that will end come time for the summer Daytona race. If there is still a close playoff picture, maybe the two or three drivers close on points will play it safer. But, the entire field not clinched for the playoffs will go for broke late in the race to win their way in. While some may quibble with that thought, at least it will be reserved for Daytona rather than the next six races. Plus, NASCAR is banking on that if you look at the advertisement for Daytona. For those who enjoying the playoff battle, keep enjoying it. Hopefully, it remains tight and will only get better as the pressure rises.
Great Read!