In a shocking announcement on Thursday, Justin Haley will be leaving Kaulig Racing to drive for Rick Ware Racing on a multi-year deal. Whoever had that on their silly season bingo card, go buy a lottery ticket. This has to be one of the most surprising silly season moves in recent memory. There was no buzz or speculation about this move prior to the announcement. In fact, most assumed that Justin Haley returning to Kaulig was a formality. Haley has been with Kaulig Racing since 2019, the longest tenured driver for the young team. It seemed obviously that the two would continue to grow and development for the coming years. Instead, Haley has seemingly jumped ship to go to Rick Ware Racing.
If this move makes you scratch your head, then you are completely justified. While Kaulig Racing has yet to be a truly competitive force in the Cup Series, they are miles ahead of Rick Ware Racing. Unless it is a superspeedway, Rick Ware Racing barely competes for the Top-25. This certainly seems like a massive step down for Justin Haley. However, in a statement, he cites the alliances Rick Ware has (specifically with RFK Racing) as a reason for the move. Perhaps, there is something developing at Rick Ware that fans have not seen yet. Maybe Haley knows an announcement that will be made at a later time that will help make sense of all of this. Of course, it could also be a circumstance where Kaulig told Haley to seek a ride elsewhere behind closed doors.
Why Rick Ware Racing?
Once again, it is difficult to wrap the head around why Justin Haley would leave Kaulig Racing for Rick Ware Racing. While Kaulig has been underperforming this season, both Kaulig cars sit over 167 owner points ahead of the best running Rick Ware car. Truly, this seems like a bizarre move.
Outside of stating how crazy this move seems, perhaps there is something in the works that can help explain all of this. In Haley’s statement, he specifically names RFK Racing as an alliance that will be “pivotal for the future of [their] on-track success”. During negotiations, did Rick Ware inform Haley about more develops on said alliance? What if that alliance turns into a merger or acquisition? While this is purely speculation, growth of RFK Racing seems to be inevitable. With the limited number of charters (and teams looking to sell), what if this is laying the foundation for a third RFK team?
Although Rick Ware will be unlikely to sell his team, the possibility of a merger might make more sense. Maybe not in 2024, but a few years down the line. Based on Brad Keselowski’s public comments, it would appear that he would want to establish RFK Racing as a championship contender with two cars before ramping up to three. Most likely, the alliance between the two grows closer in 2024. With Haley still a young driver, RFK uses Rick Ware as their Wood Brothers for the time being. A separate team where they can develop a younger driver while Brad and Chris Buescher lead the main team.
Another simple reason why Haley picked Rick Ware Racing is security. This is a multi-year deal instead of a one-year deal. He will have at least two seasons locked up in the Cup Series. Also, Rick Ware might have been the only team to offer him a contract at this moment. While tentative offers are nice, a written contract is a guarantee. It is better than the mystery that could be a lingering silly season.
Fallout for Kaulig Racing
Under the impression that this was Justin Haley’s decision, Kaulig Racing has suffered a gut punch. It is one thing to lose a driver to another team, even a subpar team. However, it has to be worse when it is your homegrown driver. Haley has been the face of Kaulig Racing since 2019. Even with AJ Allmendinger having more success with the team, the driver most fans think of when they hear Kaulig is Justin Haley.
If Kaulig did not dismiss Haley, Thursday’s announcement must come a shock. While Allmendinger has been running better this season, Haley was there to develop for years. A lot of time, money, and investment went into Haley’s Kaulig career.
Now, there is a chance that Kaulig Racing told Justin Haley that they were not resigning him for next season. Either that or they were actively shopping his seat. According to Bob Pockrass, Kaulig Racing have been talking to other drivers. Apparently, there was concern from the Haley camp that Kyle Busch would take his seat last year. Even with that report, every team with flexibility will talk to available drivers. Does that mean they were going to push Haley out? Not necessarily, but where there is smoke.
There is also a possibility that AJ Allmendinger does not return to the 16 for 2024. Allmendinger constantly fields questions about his 2024 intentions. There have been rumors about him going back to Xfinity and only running part time in Cup. If Kaulig Racing loses both drivers in one silly season, that would be devastating for their young Cup Series program.
Who Replaces Justin Haley?
Prior to today, the thought of an open seat at Kaulig Racing would have been due to AJ Allmendinger retiring from fulltime racing again. However, the thought was that Kaulig Racing would be a boring silly season team. Now, they have been dragged straight to the center of attention. The 31 Kaulig Racing car is officially the most desired Cup Series seat on the market. Even if Aric Almirola retires, the 31 still seems more lucrative than Stewart-Haas Racing’s 10. With Justin Haley’s absence, now the big question is who fills the 31 seat?
Shane van Gisbergen
In a previous article, the silly season aura of Shane van Gisbergen was discussed. Kaulig Racing was mentioned twice in that article. One option was replacing AJ Allmendinger and the other was starting a third team. Now, Kaulig Racing has an open team for Shane van Gisbergen. If the rumors are to be believed, Gisbergen is heading to the Cup Series next year. While Trackhouse might be the preferred destination, Kaulig Racing has a chartered ride readily available. With Haley’s absence, move Kaulig Racing to the betting favorites to land Shane van Gisbergen.
Promote From Within
Kaulig Racing has two drivers in their Xfinity Series program who could be promoted to the Cup Series to replace Justin Haley. The longshot would be Chandler Smith. He is currently in his rookie season in the Xfinity Series. While he has been outperforming his teammate, Kaulig will likely not want to rush his development. However, the NextGen car seems to drive vastly different from the Xfinity cars. Would keeping Smith down in the Xfinity Series help prepare him for the NextGen car better than actual seat time in said car?
Meanwhile, Daniel Hemric could make his return to the Cup Series. After winning the 2021 Xfinity Series Championship with Joe Gibbs Racing, Hemric moved to Kaulig Racing. During his time with Kaulig, Hemric has 24 Top-10s in 51 races. Hemric has not kept pace with how well Haley ran in that same car the previous two seasons. Hemric is the more logical choice to replace Haley for the 31 due to his Cup Series experience. However, it would be an underwhelming choice.
Austin Hill
There is currently a logjam at Richard Childress Racing for the Cup Series. Austin Dillon and Kyle Busch likely will keep their rides for as long as they want. That leaves no place for the current Xfinity Series drivers to go. Sheldon Creed has yet to impress in the Xfinity Series, which means he will likely remain there for at least one more season. Meanwhile, Austin Hill looks ready to move to the Cup Series.
Although he has cooled since his hot 2023 start, Hill does not seem to need more time in the Xfinity Series. He is an accomplish superspeedway racer, holds his own on the road courses, and currently sits second in the standings. Barring RCR buying a charter, Hill has not Cup Series prospects within the team. If Shane van Gisbergen does not sign with Kaulig, Hill might be the favorite to land the 31.
