NASCAR silly season is always a highlight of the summer. So far for 2023 silly season, Josh Berry has been officially announced as Kevin Harvick’s replacement, Corey LaJoie is returning to Spire, and Justin Haley had a premonition about Rick Ware Racing becoming competent. Plus, Ross Chastain, Chase Briscoe, and Alex Bowman inked extensions prior to the season beginning. All of that has occurred before the calendar hit August. Even with those transactions, the 2023 silly season market is still active, especially in the Cup Series. While some rides seem locked in stone, the Haley departure from Kaulig Racing was a shock to the system. With a move like that happening without much noise ahead of time, what else can happen this silly season?
With silly season hitting full swing, this article will attempt to predict which drivers will fill the open seats. This will apply to the Cup and Xfinity Series. For the Xfinity Series, it will only be the top rides that are either confirmed to be open or heavily rumored. As for the Cup Series, the predictions will be about the seats where there is speculation about the current driver not returning. Teams that already have a driver under contract for next year will not be included. Also, teams where it would be a complete bombshell if the driver would leave will not be included (for example, Chris Buescher and the 17 team). Also, a driver can only be predicted once. If a prediction removes a driver from a different ride, then this article will also predict that driver’s replacement.
Cup Series
Stewart-Haas Racing #10
Current Driver: Aric Almirola
2024 Driver:Â John Hunter Nemechek
Analysis
Based on how the 2023 season is going, it would be surprising for Aric Almirola not to retire. He announced retirement last year, but came back for 2023 after Smithfield rejoined the cause. However, Almirola is coming off a poor 2022. With 2023 being worse, retirement has to be the best choice for the Florida native.
If and when that seat comes available, John Hunter Nemechek would be the best available driver to fill it. While there have been rumors about Michael McDowell going to Stewart-Haas Racing, it makes more sense for him to remain at Front Row. Meanwhile, Nemechek is stuck in the Xfinity Series with Toyota. Barring a surprise move, TRD will have no Cup Series rides open for Nemechek. While it is possible for Nemechek to remain in Xfinity for one more season, what else does he have to gain down there? Nemechek has completed his career renaissance after three seasons in the lower series. He has made himself into a top commodity on the market.
Nemechek is the dominant driver in the Xfinity Series. He is the current points leader and has racked up four wins on the season. The only way that Nemechek remains in the Xfinity Series is if the allure of Joe Gibbs Racing in 2025 is too tempting over his career aspirations. Also, SHR has taken a massive step back in competition. Waiting a season for a great JGR car might be more enticing than a struggling SHR car. However, Nemechek could be the head of a team turnaround at SHR. With the rise of other teams, there is no reason to think SHR cannot do the same.
Alternative Options: Michael McDowell, Shane van Gisbergen, and Aric Almirola
Joe Gibbs Racing #11
Current Driver: Denny Hamlin
2024 Driver: Denny Hamlin
Analysis
After his victory at Pocono, Joe Gibbs stated that Denny Hamlin would be returning to Joe Gibbs Racing. While the sentiment feels similar to early 2022 talk about Kyle Busch, there is little reason to believe Denny Hamlin will leave JGR after this season. For those who bring up Hamlin racing for his own team, 23XI Racing is essentially JGR-lite. Outside the official title, there would be no difference between Hamlin in the 11 car versus the 67 car. Barring craziness, Hamlin will be driving for JGR next season.
Alternative Options: John Hunter Nemechek
Rick Ware Racing #15
Current Driver: Multi-driver team
2024 Driver: Shane van Gisbergen: Charter sold to Trackhouse Racing
Analysis
Under the assumption that Justin Haley will drive the 51 car, Rick Ware Racing should sell its second charter. There has been little progress from Rick Ware Racing entries in the Cup Series. Cody Ware will not be returning to drive for the team. Instead of puttering along with a team of a variety of drivers, sell the charter to fully invest in Justin Haley. One less car means the RFK Racing resources being shared can be focused on developing the 51 car into a playoff team.
If Rick Ware Racing does the sensible thing and sells one of their charters, Trackhouse Racing will likely be the bidders to buy it. After the impressive run at Chicago, Shane van Gisbergen is the best free agent to go after. With PROJECT91, Trackhouse has the inside lane in acquiring the New Zealander’s services. All they need is a charter for the 91 car. If they can acquire one, then Gisbergen will likely pick Trackhouse to drive for in 2024.
Alternative Options: Multi-driver team, JJ Yeley, and Riley Herbst
Kaulig Racing #16
Current Driver: AJ Allmendinger
2024 Driver: AJ Allmendinger
Analysis
Prior to the Justin Haley news, there might be a different driver in the 16 car next year for Kaulig Racing. There has been some rumblings that AJ Allmendinger would prefer to race in the Xfinity Series. Despite those rumblings, it would be surprising to see Allmendinger leave the Cup Series. His season started out poorly, however, he has bounced back since the All-Star Race to be in contention for the playoffs. With two of the tracks remaining in the regular season being the two tracks Allmendinger has won at, it would not be surprising to see AJ in the playoffs.
As for 2024, Kaulig will surely want Allmendinger to remain in the Cup Series to keep some continuity. Plus, the Xfinity schedule is no longer much lighter than the Cup Series. The difference is five weekends (when counting The Clash and All-Star Race). Plus, Kaulig would likely tab Allmendinger to run some Cup races in their third car if he did return to the Xfinity Series. With all of that in mind, expect Allmendinger to return to the Cup Series with Kaulig in 2024.
Alternative Options: Daniel Hemric, Austin Hill, and multi-driver schedule
Joe Gibbs Racing #19
Current Driver: Martin Truex Jr
2024 Driver: Martin Truex Jr
Analysis
Between Martin Truex Jr and Denny Hamlin, Truex seems to be more likely to depart Joe Gibbs Racing than Hamlin. Although asked multiple times, Truex has yet to give an answer about his 2024 plans. It is a binary choice: retire or return to the 19. After his “down” 2022, Truex has rebounded to leading the points and winning three races at the time of this writing. While some can make the argument about retiring while on top, that does not seem to be the NASCAR way. It is not a certainty, but Martin Truex Jr will probably return for one more season in the 19 car.
Alternative Options: John Hunter Nemechek
Wood Brothers Racing #21
Current Driver: Harrison Burton
2024 Driver: Harrison Burton
Analysis
Surprisingly, there has been little discussion about the Wood Brothers during this silly season. Harrison Burton is in the middle of his second season with the team. The results have been a step down from where Matt DiBenedetto had the team in 2021. In 57 starts, Burton has only collected 4 Top-10s with an average finish of 23.0. With those numbers, it would not be surprising to see the Wood Brothers (more so Penske) go in a different direction for 2024.
However, Burton has been making strides in recent weeks. He has been showing better speed as of late. At Pocono, he managed to hang onto a Top-10 after a late caution helped their strategy. When it comes to the young drivers in the Cup Series, usually season three is decisive season. If Burton fails to improve next year, he will be out. However, Wood Brothers will likely give him a chance for a third season. At the very least, Burton brings sponsorship money with DEX Imaging.
Alternative Options: Todd Gilliland, John Hunter Nemechek, and Cole Custer
Kaulig Racing #31
Current Driver: Justin Haley
2024 Driver: Austin Hill
Analysis
Justin Haley is not returning to the 31 car next season. Right now, the 31 car is the only known open ride for the 2024 season. Barring a sale of the charter, Kaulig Racing will be filling that seat. The question remains who. With any open seat, the first driver that springs to mind is Shane van Gisbergen. If Trackhouse is unable to acquire a charter, the 31 car should be the betting favorite for his landing spot (assuming he moves to the Cup Sereis). However, Gisbergen is already with Trackhouse Racing in these predictions.
Instead, Kaulig Racing will likely pluck from the Chevy developmental tree and call up Austin Hill. This move makes a lot of sense for all parties involved. Much like John Hunter Nemechek, Austin Hill has nothing left to do in the Xfinity Series. He is a multi-time winner and championship front runner. Hill is Cup Series ready and has nowhere to go under the Richard Childress Racing umbrella for years to come. Meanwhile, Kaulig Racing would bring in a driver that has funding and experience in the NextGen car. If Gisbergen is unavailable, bringing Hill to the team would be the logical fallback option.
Alternative Options: Chandler Smith, Shane van Gisbergen, and Daniel Hemric
Front Row Motorsports #34
Current Driver: Michael McDowell
2024 Driver:Â Michael McDowell
Analysis
Front Row Motorsports is in a precarious situation. They have three Cup Series level drivers currently on the roster with only two Cup rides. With Front Row’s limited budget, it would be infeasible for them to buy a charter (if one were to come available). Unless Front Row can convince one of Zane Smith or Todd Gilliland to run the 38 truck next year, Front Row will be losing one of their drivers. Many speculate that Michael McDowell maybe the driver to depart. He is linked to Stewart-Haas Racing as a potential replacement for Aric Almirola. Would that be the correct move for McDowell?
While there is still a perception of Front Row as third tier in the Cup Series, both Front Row cars are performing better than three of the SHR cars. McDowell currently sits sixteenth in drivers point and eighteenth in owners. Todd Gilliland is ahead of Ryan Preece and Aric Almirola in points. Chase Briscoe would rank ahead if not for his 120 point penalty. It would seem that leaving for SHR right now would be a stepdown for McDowell. Meanwhile, Front Row would likely be hesitant to see the face of their organization leave. Despite his age compared to Smith and Gilliland, McDowell has dragged Front Row to legitimacy in the Cup Series. It is hard to believe that he would be allowed to walk without some fight.
Alternative Options: Zane Smith and Todd Gilliland
Front Row Motorsports #38
Current Driver: Todd Gilliland
2024 Driver: Zane Smith
Analysis
Zane Smith to the 38 already seems to have happened. In 2022, Front Row had announced Todd Gilliland would be driving the 38 for the full 2023 season. However, that changed shortly before the Daytona 500. Front Row announced that Zane Smith would be taking six races from Gilliland in the 38 car. That left Gilliland scrambling to figure out how he would run all 36 Cup races to remain eligible for the playoffs. Luckily, Rick Ware Racing and sponsorship came through to help Gilliland achieve his full schedule.
With that move, it indicated that Front Row saw Zane Smith as the future for their Cup program. Despite Gilliland steady progress, it seems that Front Row has made their choice between the two. Unless McDowell leaves, Gilliland will be without a Cup ride. Now, Gilliland might not want to return to the 38 after the Smith switch anyway. Either way, it appears that Gilliland will be leaving Front Row Motorsports at the end of this season.
Alternative Options: Todd Gilliland
Stewart-Haas Racing #41
Current Driver: Ryan Preece
2024 Driver: Ryan Preece
Analysis
Tony Stewart had to fight Gene Haas about putting Ryan Preece in this car. While his choice has been a lateral move in terms of performance, there is little chance that Stewart will yank the rung out from under Preece at this time. Plus, if SHR is losing two drivers, it is highly unlikely they will voluntarily make that number three. Preece’s struggles have been similar to Cole Custer’s time in that 41 car. While expectations were higher for Preece this season, SHR will give him a second season to hope that continuity with the team will better 2024’s performance.
Alternative Options: Cole Custer
Spire Motorsports #77
Current Driver: Ty Dillon
2024 Driver: Carson Hocevar
Analysis
With Corey LaJoie likely resigning with the team for 2024, all eyes will be on the 77 car/charter. What might be best for the team as currently constructed is not likely what they will do. Much like Rick Ware Racing, Spire would benefit from focusing on their time, money, and effort into the 7 car. However, ownership has stated that there are no intentions to sell a charter. Does that mean they will not? Not necessarily, but it makes sense to take their word for it. With that understanding, there is slim chances that Ty Dillon will be brought back. No offense to Dillon, but he has not brought any improvement compared to the driver-by-committee 2022 season.
Under the assumption Ty Dillon is gone, Spire would likely look for a young driver to develop along with LaJoie. After making his debut this year, Carson Hocevar would be the one tabbed to drive the 77. He has been making starts for Spire’s Xfinity program this year. Spire could decide to have Hocevar skip Xfinity to jump straight into a Cup ride. If Parker Kligerman’s radio is to be believed, Hocevar to the Cup Series is a done deal. Spire is the only place where that makes sense.
Now, what could throw a monkey wrench into this prediction is the Andretti family. There are rumors that Andretti is looking to enter NASCAR next year. One of their primary sponsors, Gainbridge, has already locked down sponsorship with Spire through next season. Could this indicate a merger with/sale to Andretti? If that happens, how would that alter who drives the 77? Would Marco Andretti move to Cup Series racing? Would Spire stick with their original pick?
Alternative Options: Sell the charter, Marco Andretti, and Ty Dillon
Xfinity Series
JR Motorsports #8
Current Driver: Josh Berry
2024 Driver: Parker Kligerman
Analysis
Attempting to do silly season for the two lower series of NASCAR is similar to reaching into a hat of names and plucking one out. Sometimes it makes sense, sometimes the decisions are out of left field. So naturally, this prediction comes from out of nowhere. Josh Berry is guaranteed to be leaving the 8 car. The rest of JR Motorsports will likely remain constant. Outside of Brandon Jones being booted, the other three cars will have the same drivers. With Berry leaving, who replaces him?
Currently, the leading rumored candidate is Dale Earnhardt Jr’s nephew, Jeffery Earnhardt. Earnhardt currently drives for Alpha Prime in a seat that was supposed to be fulltime. Earnhardt has bounced around a lot in his career. Likely, Earnhardt will move again for 2024. Money plays a big role in where Earnhardt will wind up. Surely, Bass Pro Shops will be willing to sponsor whoever drives the 8.
With that said, JR Motorsports needs a boost in their driver ranks. This has been a down season for the team. Justin Allgaier is the only one to reach victory lane. Youth might be brought in, but Sam Mayer’s slow development probably discourages a move like that. Carson Hocevar would be the pick if not for the Spire prediction.
So, why Parker Kligerman? Kligerman is a bubble driver in terms of the playoffs. His current team, Big Machine Racing, is not on the same level as JR Motorsports. Switching to JRM might boost Kligerman into a top driver in the series. This prediction is pure speculation. Without Hocevar available, someone like Kligerman makes more sense than Earnhardt.
Alternative Options: Jeffrey Earnhardt, Carson Hocevar, and Carson Kvapil
Kaulig Racing #10
Current Driver: Multi-driver team
2024 Driver: Derek Kraus
Analysis
Under the assumption Daniel Hemric and Chandler Smith are not called up to replace Justin Haley or AJ Allmendinger, there should only be one car available for Kaulig Racing in the Xfinity Series. While Kaulig could continue trophy hunting with this car, the preference would likely be to get a fulltime driver for the 10. Kaulig has the ability to run a fourth team for an all-star car if they desired.
Derek Kraus has started four races in Kaulig’s 10 car. Half of those races resulted in Top-10s, albeit those two races were short tracks. Kraus lost his truck ride with McNally Racing after failing to make the playoffs three straight seasons. Being picked up by Kaulig Racing might be the move to give his career a boost. With Kaulig already tabbing him to drive in the car (as well as practice/qualify for AJ Allmendinger at Richmond), it seems likely this relationship will blossom into a fulltime ride for Kraus.
Alternative Options: Multi-driver team, Ty Dillon, and Christian Eckes
Joe Gibbs Racing #20
Current Driver: John Hunter Nemechek
2024 Driver: Todd Gilliland
Analysis
If Front Row decides to boot Todd Gilliland from the Cup team, the likelihood of him landing a Cup Series ride is slim. Stewart-Haas Racing’s 10 car would be the only landing spot worthwhile for Gilliland to land. SHR could go with Gilliland, but the links between the two have been limited. Kaulig will likely remain in the Chevy department for their new driver(s) in Cup. Spire would be a step backwards for a young driver like Gilliland. Instead of driving in the Cup Series next season, Gilliland could pull a John Hunter Nemechek and restart his career trajectory.
While Todd Gilliland to Joe Gibbs Racing might seem strange, there is something foundation to this speculation. David Gilliland’s team, TRICON Garage, switched from Ford to Toyota this season. With his father’s team now running Toyota, it would be sensible to see Todd follow to the manufacturer and TRD. If John Hunter Nemechek leaves, Gilliland would be a suitable replacement. Losing Nemechek would open a spot for someone to audition for Martin Truex Jr’s ride in 2025. Gilliland would only be out of the Cup Series for a cup of coffee in this scenario.
Alternative Options: Brandon Jones, Ryan Truex, and Connor Mosack
Richard Childress Racing #21
Current Driver: Austin Hill
2024 Driver: Ty Dillon
Analysis
With Austin Hill potentially leaving for Kaulig Racing, there would be a vacancy for the 21 car. Richard Childress could decide to go back to only running one team. 2021 only had one RCR car in the Xfinity Series. There could be reason to believe that RCR would do the same for 2024. However, Childress could attempt to give his grandson a soft landing after losing another Cup Series ride.
Ty Dillon seems destined to lose his ride at Spire Motorsports. Unfortunately for the younger Dillon, he cannot stick with any team for the long term. Rather than fighting to stay up in the Cup Series, Dillon should consider running a full Xfinity Series schedule. If RCR is willing to keep the 21 car operating, then Dillon would be a sensible fit. Whether it leads to a Cup Series ride or not, Dillon needs to find some success behind the wheel again. Even his fill-in roles with JGR and RCR have not netted much acclaim. At one season fulltime might allow Dillon to find his groove and collect a win or two.
Alternative Options: Team shutdown, Multi-driver team, and Christian Eckes
