With playoff pressure mounting and drama abound for the top drivers, it is the perfect time for short track racing. The Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway will serve up some intense racing. While Richmond is not known for the bumping and banging that Bristol and Martinsville are famous for, fans should still be delighted by the close-quarters racing. Patience will be short and tempers will be on quick fuses. Especially after the drama at Pocono, Richmond will be must-see TV. Drivers will be clawing for track position while crew chiefs will be analyzing the various strategies. The Cook Out 400 is the last short track before the playoffs.
In the spring race, Kyle Larson was able to pull out the victory despite late race restarts. Josh Berry likely earned his 2024 Cup Series ride with his impressive second place finish. However, the focus will shift to the playoff cutline. With only five races left, the Cook Out 400 will be home to the cutline drivers battling hard to maintain or improve their points position. After Richmond, half of the remaining regular season races will be wild cards. For those who excel on short tracks, this race will be vitally important for their playoff hopes. There could be bold calls and moves during the race in an attempt to secure a win for a driver on the outside looking in.
As the drama builds in the Cup Series season, who should you watch on Sunday? Who will be the five drivers to watch during the Cook Out 400? If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Kevin Harvick
At some point, Kevin Harvick will pull out a victory. After careful consideration from Gregory Latham, he pinpointed Richmond as a great track for Harvick to win in his retirement tour. Since the implementation of the NextGen car, Harvick’s average finish at Richmond is 2.67. In his career, Harvick has won at Richmond four times. On paper, this looks to be the best chance for Harvick to get that win.
As for the playoff picture, Kevin Harvick is essentially clinched into the playoffs. With only five races to go, there is a guarantee that at least one driver will point their way in. At the moment, that would be Kevin Harvick. For the 4 team, the attitude has to be going all out for a win. Despite sitting eighth in points, Harvick would start the playoffs in twelfth with only four playoff points. After his catastrophic playoff run in 2022, Harvick knows the importance of building a buffer with playoff points. With Richmond being a strong track, look for Harvick to pull out a dominating win and collect at least five playoff points.
Alex Bowman
From a driver who could use a win to one who needs one, Alex Bowman currently sits 46 points behind the cutoff line. While mathematically possible for Bowman to point his way in, it would be a herculean task. Not only does Bowman have to make up that point gap, he would also have to leapfrog three drivers in addition to passing Michael McDowell. With those obstacles, Bowman’s best bet is to win his way in. Since returning from injury, Bowman has yet to finish inside the Top-10. When Bowman is struggling to finish in the Top-10, a win is a lofty goal.
However, Alex Bowman still drives for Hendrick Motorsports. He is in the best equipment in the Cup Series. While he did not demonstrate much race winning speed before the injury, there was one track where he looked strong. That track was Richmond. He started on the pole and ran near/inside the Top-5 for most of the race. Outside of Daytona, this would be Bowman’s best track to capture the much needed win. Can he shrug off the recent struggles to claim the victory? It will be worth watching out for Bowman come Sunday.
Ty Gibbs
Fresh off his first career Top-5, Ty Gibbs is the Toyota driver to spotlight heading into Richmond. While all of his Toyota teammates have a better chance to win, Gibbs is making his push for the playoffs. Currently, he sits 28 points behind the cutline. Although winning would be the easiest path to the playoffs, Gibbs has a decent chance of pointing his way in. Especially when considering the tracks upcoming on the schedule, starting with Richmond. Richmond has been a Toyota haven in recent years. Six of the past nine winners have been from the Toyota camp.
As for Ty Gibbs, his spring run at Richmond netted him his third straight Top-10 at the time. It was his strongest run of the season. At the time, his 80% rate of Top-15 laps was the best of his career. Now that he grown more comfortable in that 54 ride, expectations for Gibbs this weekend should be raised. Will he win? Doubtful, but it would not be a shock if he did. After his Top-5 at Pocono, Gibbs demonstrated the ability to run near the front. The next step would be to battle for the lead and head up the field for a few laps. With Richmond being Toyota friendly, the Cook Out 400 could see another breakout moment for Ty Gibbs.
Michael McDowell
Holding onto the final playoff spot currently is Michael McDowell. McDowell has been a string of strong runs recently. His nineteenth place finish at Pocono was his worst since Nashville. However, McDowell was able to pick up six stage points during the race to help boost him further above the cutline. Much like Gibbs, the remaining regular season schedule plays into McDowell’s strengths. Earlier this season, McDowell finished sixth at Richmond.
Compared to other drivers featured in this article, McDowell will be more cautious during the race. While he would love to race for the win, McDowell’s 34 car will likely lack the necessary speed to win. Instead, he will be points racing. Expect to see crew chief Bob Jenkins to play the stage point strategy throughout the Cook Out 400. Strong finishes in the stages will be valuable as McDowell will try to surpass Bubba Wallace for fifteenth in points. McDowell’s race might be determined on Saturday during qualifying. The Front Row team will have their car trimmed for a quick qualifying lap (or two) to help McDowell earn the most amount of stage points as possible.
Kyle Larson
Everyone wants it. The question is, will Kyle Larson deliver the gratifying revenge on Denny Hamlin? Larson is already locked into the playoffs. With his numerous DNFs, Larson has no chance at claiming the regular season championship. All that Larson has to race for currently is wins. In the spring, Larson led the most laps and won the race. He survived late race restarts and his teammates in order to do so. For this weekend, Larson might not mind seeing Hamlin near him on a late race restart for the win.
It is highly unlikely that Larson will go out of his way to wreck Hamlin, especially early in the race. Cliff Daniels would not allow such blasphemy. However, if the opportunity is presented to him late in the race, expect some fireworks between the two drivers. Larson owes Hamlin the same treatment he received at Pocono. With how well both drivers run at Richmond, it is almost expected now to see them battling for the win in the closing laps. If this is the case, Larson surely will run Hamlin out of the groove. Potentially, Larson could dump Hamlin for the win. Based on this alone, lookout for Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin at then end of the Cook Out 400.
