The NASCAR Cup Series is heading up to the northeast for some lobster fishing. The lobster trophy is on the line for the Crayon 301. After the superspeedway of Atlanta, the flat miler in New Hampshire will be a drastic change. Surviving chaos and flooring the pedal with be switched out for tight racing and heavy braking. Last year, Christopher Bell was able to capture the win after running out of daylight in 2021. With NASCAR’s new policy of rain tires on flat tracks, this weekend might be the first points oval race to see rain tires. Based on the results from North Wilkesboro, it could help add some entertainment to watch the cars slide around the track.
As for this year’s Crayon 301, the most enticing part of the race might not be at the front of the field. With the playoff bubble being tight, eyes might shift back to around the mid-pack. Daniel Suarez and Michael McDowell only hold a three point edge on the cutline. Meanwhile, Ty Gibbs, Bubba Wallace, and AJ Allmendinger are within striking distance of the playoffs. Perhaps, a surprise driver could pull off an upset to win the Crayon 301. While many will surely expect the Toyotas to run well, last year saw a handful of surprise drivers run well. Could this lead to a shake up of the points? Will there be a thirteenth different winner?
With all of these storylines, who are the five drivers you should be watching on Sunday? Continue reading to find out. If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Christopher Bell
The reigning winner at New Hampshire will look to continue his streak of two straight Top-2s at the track. Back in 2021, a darkness shortened race prevented Bell from catching Aric Almirola for the win. Last year, Bell was able to pass Chase Elliott late in the race to pull out the victory. Flat tracks seem to bode well for Christopher Bell. In the past year, Bell has won at New Hampshire and Martinsville. During his tenure in the Xfinity Series, Bell won all three races he started at New Hampshire. Safe to say, he will usually be a contender at New Hampshire.
This year, Bell is still battling for the top spot in the points. Currently, he ranks third, sitting 37 points behind William Byron. Despite running sluggish over the past eight races, Bell still has a chance to win the regular season points title. However, he is going to need to do better than the two Top-10s he has since Dover. New Hampshire and the Crayon 301 might be the race for Bell to get back on track.
Martin Truex Jr
From the driver who won last year to the driver who led the most laps. Martin Truex Jr dominated the New Hampshire race in 2022. He led 172 laps and won both stages. Unfortunately, the 19 team was not able to close the deal. Truex lost the lead to Kurt Busch on lap 207 and never regained it. This was especially tragic for Truex since his lack of wins by the end of Daytona prevented him from racing in the playoffs. Surely, he wishes that he could have sealed the win in Loudon last year.
Heading into the Crayon 301 this year, Truex has already collected two wins. Similar to Bell, Truex is also in the hunt for the regular season points title. Those valuable 15 points could be a huge boost to whichever driver wins it. Truex only sits 21 points behind Byron for the top spot. New Hampshire has always been a strong track for Truex. He has an average finish of 11.7 and 14 Top-10s in 29 starts. However, he still lacks that win. After leading 916 laps at this track, maybe this year will be the one where he leads the final lap.
Kevin Harvick
Kevin Harvick needs to find some good luck. After the Coke 600, Harvick sat 8 points back of then points leader Ross Chastain. Since the Coke 600, Harvick has fallen back to 98 points behind the current points leader. Plus, he has dropped from fourth to ninth in the standings. Since the Coke 600, Harvick only has one Top-10 finish and two finishes off the lead lap. While Harvick is unlikely to fall out of the playoffs with the skid, his retirement tour is starting to lose steam. Thankfully, Harvick is heading to a track where he has great success.
Loudon has been friendly to Harvick. It would be the perfect track for Harvick’s turn around before the playoffs start. A lot of that success has been recent as well. Since 2016, Harvick has three wins and only two finishes outside the Top-5. One of those non Top-5s was due to a wreck in 2017. His worst non-DNF finish since 2016 is sixth. Even in the NextGen car, Harvick finished in the Top-5 last year. Harvick should be a threat to win this weekend. The Fords, specifically SHR, were fast a Martinsville. Even if Harvick does not win, expect him to have a bounce back race to get his 2023 back on track.
Brad Keselowski
Another driver who has enjoyed significant success at New Hampshire is Brad Keselowski. Keselowski averages a Top-10 finish at Loudon in his 29 starts. Plus, he is a two-time winner at the track. During his poor 2022 season, New Hampshire was one of the few tracks where Keselowski ran well. He finished seventh and ran inside the Top-15 for two-thirds of the race. That was even after having a bit of scuff up with Austin Dillon under caution. While nothing impressive, it was a promising race during a campaign of suffering. If Keselowski ran that well during a bad season, how well will he run in a strong rebound season?
Once again, the Fords flashed speed at Martinsville earlier this year. Loudon races like a larger Martinsville. It would make sense that the Fords would bring that speed to New Hampshire. Harvick and Keselowski were the only Ford Top-10s last year, but other drivers ran stronger than what their finish would indicate. While the Crayon 301 is not Keselowski’s best chance to break his winless drought, it is a legitimate chance for the owner/driver to breakthrough. Whether you would consider it an upset or not, look out for Keselowski to be a factor late in the race.
Aric Almirola
This will be the race where Aric Almirola randomly dominates and wins a race to secure his playoff spot. It happened in 2021 and it could happen again in 2023. Last year, Almirola mostly ran inside the Top-15. He finished eighth in Stage 1. Unfortunately, his race was ruined due to a transmission issue. By the time they resolved it, Almirola was almost twenty laps down.
If Almriola can avoid bad luck in 2023, he is the underdog to lookout for. His win in 2021 was not a fluke during the race itself. He finished Top-5 in Stage 2 and was able to hold off a charging Christopher Bell. Since joining SHR, Almirola has been strong at New Hampshire. In his five starts with SHR at the track, Almirola’s average finish is 10.6. If you take away the poor result last year, that average is boosted to 5.5. While his 2023 has been bad, New Hampshire is the track where Almirola can turn it around. He will need a win to make the playoffs. The Crayon 301 would be his best bet.
