From the Magic Mile to the Tricky Triangle, the NASCAR Cup Series is heading to Pocono Raceway. The Highpoint.com 400 will NASCAR’s lone venture to the triangular track. Pocono should offer quality racing this weekend, as the NextGen car thrives on longer intermediate tracks. Last year, the race is less remembered for the on track action. Rather, the main headlines from said race were the penalties. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch were disqualified during post race inspection, handing the win to third place finisher Chase Elliott. After the race at R&D, Michael McDowell was handed a 100-point penalty for modified parts. Plus, this was the weekend where the NextGen car retired Kurt Busch. For this year’s Highpoint.com 400, NASCAR is hoping the attention will primarily remain with the on-track action.
With the regular season continuing to wind to an end, the playoff picture is always something to keep an eye on. With the eleven different winners, there are currently five open spots for the playoffs. Three spots appear locked up in terms of points, with Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Chris Buescher at least 97 points above the cutline. Meanwhile, the final two spots are contested in a tight battle. Three drivers are separated by 3 points, with five others hovering within 60 points of the cutline. Will the Highpoint.com 400 add more drama to this playoff battle? Could a new winner surprise the field and upset the cutoff line?
With all of this considered, below are the five drivers to watch this weekend in the Highpoint.com 400. If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Denny Hamlin
Technically, Denny Hamlin was the driver who crossed the start/finish line first. Plus, he still has the trophy from last year. So did he really not win the race? According to NASCAR, he did not. Hamlin (and then teammate Kyle Busch) were disqualified after the race due to unapproved modifications. Instead of a much needed win, Hamlin finished second to last. Remember, Hamlin only missed the Championship Four by less than five points. This DQ at Pocono is the difference between Hamlin racing for a championship and him being on the wrong side of history.
For this weekend, Denny Hamlin should be a favorite for the race. While he did not have the dominate car last year, he ran Top-10 the entire race and average a sixth place running position. He led 21 laps in route to his non-win. Not only did he run well last year, Pocono is one of Hamlin’s best track. In 33 starts, he has 6 wins (most of any track) and 21 Top-10s. Clearly, Hamlin enjoys only having to turn three times. If there is a favorite for this weekend, it will be the driver of the 11 Toyota.
Bubba Wallace
If you ignore the disqualifications, Toyota ran strongly at Pocono last year. Five Toyotas crossed the finish line in the Top-10, including Bubba Wallace. Outside of the road courses, Wallace is in the midst of a stretch of tracks that suits him well. Last week, Wallace built some momentum with a Top-10 at New Hampshire. He was able to leapfrog both Daniel Suarez and Michael McDowell back above the cutline. His edge on Suarez is narrow; a mere two points.
Since joining 23XI Racing, Wallace has found consistency at Pocono. It might be down to Toyota power, but Wallace also runs well at longer intermediate tracks. While running for 23XI Racing, Wallace has an average finish of ninth at Pocono, including at Top-5 in 2021. Wallace needs to run well in the Highpoint.com 400 to put distance between him and the cutline. While there are mostly strength tracks coming up, his poor ability on road courses might see him drop severely in points after the Indy GP. Though he runs well at Daytona, it would be beneficial to have a buffer in points for the regular season finale with the chaos that will unfold at Daytona.
Ross Chastain
Ross Chastain is on a serious skid. Despite his win at Nashville, his post-Darlington stretch of races have been bad. While poor finishes is one thing, Chastain has been a complete nonfactor in each race outside of Nashville. The lack of speed is concerning for the Trackhouse driver. Since Darlington, Chastain only has two finishes inside the Top-20. A sprinkle of bad luck has occurred, but it has mostly been mediocre speed. Consistently, Chastain has been running between fifteenth and twenty-fifth.
For Chastain, Pocono could be an opportunity to right the ship. Last year, Chastain won Stage 2 and led 15 laps. A good finish was ruined by Denny Hamlin wrecking him out of Turn 1. In addition to the solid run last year, Chastain also has a Truck Series victory at the Tricky Triangle. Trackhouse as a team showed speed at Pocono last year. Daniel Suarez finished in the Top-5. If Chastain and his team can rediscover their speed, then the Melon Man could be a threat for the win. Chastain is one to watch to see if his championship aspirations are still fruitful or souring.
Michael McDowell
Climbing up the points standings, Michael McDowell has been a stretch of solid races. Over the past six races, McDowell has an average finish of 11.3. If you remove the outlier that was Nashville, that average improves to 8. Four of those races have seen McDowell finish in the Top-10, with a lone Top-5 at Atlanta. With this recent success, McDowell has staked claim to the final playoff spot. Whether he can hold on until Darlington is the big question.
Last year, McDowell had a great run a Pocono. He finished eighth (bumped up to sixth officially), which made him the highest running Ford. It was only his second Top-10 at Pocono in his Cup Series career. Was his run a fluke or an indication of his performance this year? For McDowell, he is hoping that he can repeat that run.
Even if someone outside the playoffs win, McDowell will be embroiled in the playoff fight until the end of the regular season. The schedule looks kind to him based on his recent success. Perhaps not a winner, but watch out for McDowell running in the Top-10 in the Highpoint.com 400.
Ty Gibbs
Everyone rejoice! On Sunday, it will be the one year anniversary of Ty Gibbs making his Cup Series debut. Unfortunately, it meant the end of Kurt Busch’s fulltime career. Gibbs filled in for Busch at Pocono after a practice crash gave Busch a concussion. While nobody knew at the time, this would be the start of Gibbs running fulltime in the Cup Series. His debut race was a solid performance for someone thrust into the seat with no time to prepare. He navigated the 45 car to a sixteenth place finish. Impressive enough to turn heads and start the process of replacing Kyle Busch.
Fast forward to 2023, Ty Gibbs is hovering around the playoff cutline. He currently sits 41 points behind Michael McDowell for the final playoff spot. With a year of experience under his belt, expect Gibbs to run better and (potentially) more aggressively compared to last year. At some point, Xfinity Series Ty Gibbs is going to show up. Based on how well Toyota runs at Pocono, Gibbs could be a dark horse to upset the playoff picture with a win. It would be an upset win, but it would not be impossible. Gibbs has proven to be a competent driver. If he could flash race winning speed at any track, Pocono would be a good bet based on Toyota’s performance.
