Could Shane van Gisbergen be making the jump to the NASCAR Cup Series in 2024? A month ago, the thought of this question would be insane. However, one dominating performance on the streets of Chicago have turned Gisbergen from international invitee to potential fulltime driver. After winning the Chicago Street Race, the rumors of Shane van Gisbergen making the move to the Cup Series have been on the forefront of silly season. During his postrace interview, Gisbergen mentioned how a move to NASCAR would be a consideration for the 2025 season. However, Gisbergen’s current team owner, Jamie Whincup, has said he would not block the New Zealander from coming stateside in 2024 (if he desired). Since that quote, Shane van Gisbergen turned into the hottest silly season driver on the market.
Silly season for the 2024 season has been a bit odd. Prior to Daytona, there looked to be a couple of top drivers who would be hitting the open market. With Kevin Harvick retiring, it was going to interesting to see if Stewart-Haas Racing would snag Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, or (to lesser fanfare) Corey LaJoie to drive the 4 car. However, all three drivers have decided to reup with their current teams. Bowman and Chastain took care of that prior to the Daytona 500 and LaJoie reportedly agreed with Spire last week. SHR decided to go with Josh Berry for the 4 car. Now, silly season looks a bit tame. Outside the potential chaos that would be caused by Martin Truex Jr and/or Denny Hamlin leaving Joe Gibbs Racing, the number of known available rides is slim. However, could that change with Shane van Gisbergen?
Shane van Gisbergen to Cup in 2024?
According to a report from Australian website V8 Sleuth, the talk around the Supercars paddock is that Shane van Gisbergen will be Cup Series bound next year. Instead of waiting for his contract to run out, Gisbergen might make the plunge a year early. If Jamie Whincup is to be believed, his current team would not stop the move despite having Gisbergen under contract for 2024. Obviously, an agreement would have to be reached to void the contract, but that is simply litigation issues.
In the same report, Gisbergen’s phone has been filled with Cup Series inquiries. While (allegedly) there has been no formal offer, the interest is clearly there. Gisbergen’s drive at Chicago impressed enough team owners to make Gisbergen the most intriguing free agent in silly season. Although Gisbergen has stated his intentions to remain in Australian, money and prestige talks. Gisbergen is a decorated Supercars driver. He already has collected three championships and 80 wins. If there is an urge to tackle a new racing series, why wait another year if the team is allowing you to entertain the option.
At this point, silly season is in a waiting period due to Shane van Gisbergen. Unless a team is reupping their current driver, how could they sign a free agent if Gisbergen is available? While some expectations may be overhyped, it would not be unreasonable to see Gisbergen’s immediate ceiling set at being a playoff driver. The combination of road courses and the NextGen car being similar to the Supercars would point to more success out of Gisbergen. If Gisbergen does decide to take the plunge, where would he land?
Chartered Seats
With the Bowman, Chastain, LaJoie, and Daniel Suarez all resigning with their current teams, the list of available chartered cars seems limited. As mentioned earlier, the status of two JGR cars are technically undecided. However, it would be a surprise to see either Hamlin or Truex leave/retire. Now, the availability of any chartered ride is a bit tricky to determine. With most drivers are on year-to-year deals, technically most chartered rides are available. However, the reality is that there are more handshake deals or the question comes down to whether the current driver decides to return (rather than the team booting them).
Joe Gibbs Racing
To get this one out of the way, Joe Gibbs Race could have one or two cars potentially open if Martin Truex Jr retires and/or Denny Hamlin decides to race for his own team. Is either possibility likely? Not really. Especially after the new sponsorship from Mavis Tires, Hamlin seems certain to return to JGR for at least one more season. Meanwhile, Truex has rebounded from a “poor” 2022 with two wins and battling for the points. If either were to leave, John Hunter Nemechek would almost certainly be the choice. JGR is a team that will not be effected by the Shane van Gisbergen market (unless both seats open up).
Front Row Motorsports
Much like JGR above, Front Row will likely sit out the Shane van Gisbergen sweepstakes. Even if Front Row expanded to three cars (which they will not), that would be used to retain all three of their drivers. A combination of Michael McDowell, Todd Gilliland, and Zane Smith will be driving for Front Row next year.
Kaulig Racing
Will a Kaulig Racing ride be available next season? It really comes down to AJ Allmendinger. Bob Pockrass has been pestering Allmendinger about his 2024 plans. Last time Allmendinger was fulltime in Cup, he was miserable and walked away from NASCAR. 2023 has not been a great year for Allmendinger, but his recent runs have boosted him back into playoff contention. It would be a surprise to see Allmendinger leave fulltime duties next year. Out of the question? No, but do not expect it to happen. If Allmendinger was to back out of the 16 car, Kaulig would likely look to bring in Gisbergen to replace. They would trade one road racer for another.
What about Justin Haley? Kaulig has put too much time, money, and effort to give up on Haley yet. He has shown flashes of talent this season (especially racing against Gisbergen) and is only 24 years old. If Gisbergen went to a chartered Kaulig seat, it would be Allmendinger’s. However, it would be Allmendinger’s choice to leave, not Kaulig kicking him out.
Stewart-Haas Racing
Will SHR have an open seat for the 2024 season? Based on how Aric Almirola’s season is going, it would be a smart bet to think yes. Almirola is having a second straight poor season in the 10 car. He already announced one retirement before Smithfield decided his fulltime racing career was not over. Will Smithfield intervene again? Who knows, but based on the results, it would make sense to see Almirola actually retire this time.
If the 10 car is open, Shane van Gisbergen would be a logical fit for that seat. With Bowman, Chastain, and LaJoie off the market, the remaining free agents do not demand attention prior to Gisbergen’s 2024 decision. Zane Smith has been linked to a SHR ride, but the team might prefer the road racer instead. Plus, Smith has yet to impress in the NextGen car while Gisbergen is one-for-one in wins. If Gisbergen decides to come NASCAR racing, SHR should be seen as the favorite land him among current rides.
Spire Motorsports
After the news about Corey LaJoie reupping, Spire Motorsports owner Jeff Dickerson said there is no intention on selling the 77’s charter. With how poorly the 77 has run, it would be expected to see Ty Dillon booted from that ride. Spire Motorsports could look to bring in Shane van Gisbergen to boost the 77 into a premier ride.
Would Gisbergen leave his championship caliber Supercars team to run for Spire Motorsports? At this time, doubtful. However, there have been grumblings that the Andretti family might want to dive into NASCAR ownership. Marco Andretti drove Spire’s truck at Mid-Ohio. Gainbridge, an Andretti sponsor, signed on to sponsor both Spire Motorsport cars. Where there is smoke, usually there is fire. Could Andretti enter NASCAR through a deal to buy some of Spire? Would a partnership between Andretti and Spire provide a platform for both Spire cars to be competitive? If the answer to these questions is yes, then Shane van Gisbergen to Spire Motorsports becomes a viable option.
Wood Brothers
Another car that might be open is the Wood Brothers seat. Harrison Burton’s deal is up at the end of 2023. With the limited progression seen from the second year driver, it would not be surprising to see the Wood Brothers cut Burton after this season. Would that opening be an option for Shane van Gisbergen? Looking at the current status of the Ford Development team, there is not a Cup ready Ford driver in the lower series. Surely, the Wood Brothers (and Penske) would inquire about Gisbergen’s services.
Expansion of a Current Team
While there may be some possibilities with openings of existing entries, where Shane van Gisbergen might truly shake up silly season is expansion. A team might start a third fulltime car to accommodate Gisbergen’s entry into the Cup Series. There have been some rumblings about a couple of teams looking to expand to three cars. When it comes to starting a third team, the question is where the charter will come from. Based on the current landscape, all eyes point to Rick Ware Racing for one (if not both) of their charters.
Trackhouse Racing
This seems obvious. Shane van Gisbergen won with Trackhouse in their PROJECT91 car. Trackhouse has been the main team rumored to want to expand to three teams. Plus, Trackhouse recently received the financial boost from Anheuser Busch switching to Ross Chastain. With the move, this leaves Advent Health without a team to sponsor in 2024. Could Trackhouse convince Advent Health to remain with the team but sponsor Shane van Gisbergen instead? The boost in sponsorship money could help fund a charter purchase for a third team.
Out of all the potential expanding teams, Trackhouse would be likeliest to actually pull through. The team is constantly looking to innovate and push their limits. With the early success from Chastain and Suarez, adding a third team does not seem like a crazy endeavor. Whether Trackhouse does this or not will seem to be down to whether a different team sells a charter. If so, expect Trackhouse to pull the trigger on a third team. In the event of that happening, they would be the easy favorite for Shane van Gisbergen.
23XI Racing
Another team seemingly mulling a potential expansion in 2024 is 23XI Racing. Similar to Trackhouse, 23XI Racing is utilizing a third entry on rare occasions to bring in outside drivers. For the Daytona 500, they had Travis Pastrona run their 67 car. Kamui Kobayashi will make his NASCAR debut in that 67 car at the Indy GP. 23XI Racing is showing the flair for nontraditional drivers for a Cup car.
With clear plans of expansion and a desire to work with drivers outside the world of NASCAR, it would not be surprising to see 23XI Racing attempt to lure Gisbergen over to Toyota. The manufacturer hurdle might be another challenge to overcome for an agreement though. Gisbergen currently drives for a Chevy team in Supercars. Whether that could complicate matters is unknown at this time.
Despite the rumors of a third team, 23XI Racing does not appear as aggressive in that department compared to Trackhouse. Perhaps in a couple of seasons the 67 car will be fulltime. However, it is doubtful next season will be it with Gisbergen behind the wheel.
Kaulig Racing
Back in this article for the second time, Kaulig Racing could potentially expand to three teams. With the 13 car being used for Chandler Smith’s sporadic Cup Series starts, there surely are plans for the team to make that car fulltime at some point. However, that ride might be penciled in for Chandler Smith’s eventual rookie season. If Shane van Gisbergen is heading to Kaulig for 2024, it would only be in the 16 or 31.
Silly Season Restarts
After the Core LaJoie news, silly season has hit a pause. The only news on the forefront will be about rides opening up rather than new drivers signing. Before silly season can restart, there needs to be some indication about where Shane van Gisbergen is heading. First off, whether he is returning to fulfill the final year of his current contract or leaving for the Cup Series. Once that is settled, then it will be frenzy of teams trying to sign him. Gisbergen has the potential to be the best international driver in the Cup Series since Juan Pablo Montoya. With the talent and funding behind him, teams will not settle with the current crop of free agents until Gisbergen is off the market.
