This article is a race finish projection for the 2023 NASCAR Cup race at Richmond Raceway. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Richmond Cup Outlook article (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Martin Truex Jr.
Finished: 3rd
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 4th
Additional notes from last week:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Brad Keselowski 16th)
-15 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected to finish
-14 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the Top 10 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 10
Notable results this week
Winner: Chase Elliott
One to Watch: Aric Almirola
Disappointment: A.J. Allmendinger
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 13th -12 |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 2nd +0 |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | 21st -18 |
| 4. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 7th -3 |
| 5. | 4 | Kevin Harvick | 10th -5 |
| 6. | 10 | Aric Almirola | 8th -2 |
| 7. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 12th -5 |
| 8. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 19th -11 |
| 9. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 16th -7 |
| 10. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 1st +9 |
| 11. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 24th -13 |
| 12. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 3rd +9 |
| 13. | 22 | Joey Logano | 4th +9 |
| 14. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 14th +0 |
| 15. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 11th +4 |
| 16. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 18th -2 |
| 17. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 15th +2 |
| 18. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 6th +12 |
| 19. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 20th -1 |
| 20. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 17th +3 |
| 21. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 5th +16 |
| 22. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 33rd -11 |
| 23. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 9th +14 |
| 24. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 25th -1 |
| 25. | 43 | Erik Jones | 23rd +2 |
| 26. | 31 | Justin Haley | 30th -4 |
| 27. | 42 | Noah Gragson | 28th -1 |
| 28. | 51 | Ryan Newman | 29th -1 |
| 29. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 32nd -3 |
| 30. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 22nd +8 |
| 31. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 31st +0 |
| 32. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 26th +6 |
| 33. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 27th +6 |
| 34. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 36th -2 |
| 35. | 77 | Ty Dillon | 34th +1 |
| 36. | 15 | J.J. Yeley | 35th +1 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
