Will Harvick Win in his Final Season?

Back in April, I wrote an article which looked at the improvement of Stewart-Haas Racing after the Martinsville race.  In said article, I reached the conclusion that it would only be a matter of time before Harvick won a race.  Since that time Kevin Harvick has had a string of bad luck, which has seen him fall to the “honorable mention” category in our Power Rankings.  The time has come to ask the question, “Will Harvick win in his final season?”

It is obvious that Harvick is not the style of competitor to just ride it out in his final season.  Harvick clearly wants to win.  In this article, I will attempt to reconsider the question, “Will Harvick win in his final season?”  I will do this by looking at the tracks which I feel represent his best chances for securing a win.

The String of Bad Luck:

In the first eight races of the 2023 season, Harvick finished inside of the top 10 five times.  Three of those times were top 5 finishes.  He only had one finish outside the top 15 during this part of the season.  That was a 33rd place finish at Atlanta when he wrecked shortly after taking the lead.  The spring race at Phoenix looked like it was going to be his first win of the season until a late race caution ended a long green flag run.

The shift in Harvick’s luck really happens at Martinsville.  He led laps, won the second stage, and then had an issue with his right front tire and finished 20th.  In the ten races since the Martinsville race, Harvick has only been in the top 10 twice.  Only one of those top 10 finishes was a top 5, which was a second place finish at Darlington.  Despite the one instance of good luck at Darlington, Harvick looked strong at Dover and had a flat tire that ended his chance for a win.  Furthermore, after the second Atlanta race Harvick went on a streak of three straight finishes outside the top 20.

Perhaps it is an over-reaction to begin to question if Harvick will win in his final season.  He has consistently been the strongest performer at SHR, and really the top Ford driver (in points) until his recent string of bad finishes.  Eventually, one’s luck has to change.  Next I will look at the five tracks where I believe it is most likely for Harvick to get a win.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway:

Kevin Harvick has a total of four Cup series wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  In the past five races at New Hampshire he has finished in the top 6 or better, with four of those finishes being top 5 finishes.  Two of those four top 5 finishes were wins.  In the only race in the next gen car at New Hampshire, Harvick finished 5th.

Stewart-Haas Racing, and Harvick in particular, have shown a lot of speed at the oval tracks which use the low-downforce rules package.  This is one of the reasons that four out of the five tracks that I’ve picked as the most likely tracks for Harvick to win in 2023 use said rules package.

New Hampshire is the next race on the schedule.  It is set to take place on Sunday, July, 16th.  It will be Harvick’s 40th cup series race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  In 39 starts, he has 23 top 10 finishes, 14 of which are top 5 finishes, and as stated earlier, 4 of which are wins.  Harvick’s average starting position over his career at New Hampshire is 12.7, while his average finishing position is 12.2.  New Hampshire Motor Speedway could be the track where Harvick gets his luck turned around with a victory.

Richmond Raceway:

Richmond Raceway is another low-downforce rules package track.  This is not the only reason Richmond has been included in this list.  First, Richmond has been kind to Harvick over the course of his entire career.  Like New Hampshire, Harvick also has 4 career wins here. In 44 races at Richmond Raceway, Harvick has 30 top 10 finishes.  18 of those 30 were top 5 finishes.  His average starting position at Richmond is 12.4, while his average finishing position is 9.5.

Harvick’s most recent victory at Richmond came in 2022 when he became the first driver to win back-to-back races in the next gen car.  Honestly, it looked as though Harvick had a chance to win the spring race at Richmond in 2022, but he came up one position short and finished 2nd.  In this season’s spring race at Richmond, Harvick didn’t look as strong as he did in the previous season’s two races, but he still grabbed a top 5.

In the three next gen races at Richmond, Harvick and the #4 team have an average finish of 2.67.  That’s a great average, and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see Harvick win at Richmond in his final season.

Bristol Motor Speedway:

Bristol Motor Speedway is the only track that I’ve listed here that doesn’t utilize the low-downforce rules package.  Harvick has three career wins at Bristol (when it isn’t covered in dirt.)  In 42 races on the actual track at Bristol, Harvick has 22 top 10 finishes. 14 of those top 10s were top 5s.  He has an average starting position of 15.8.  His average finishing position is 13.1.

I do not include Bristol on this list due to his career stats, however.  Bristol is included on this list due to his performance on the track going back to 2020.  Harvick won the Bristol playoff race in 2020.  Furthermore, it looked very much like he was going to repeat in 2021, until some laps down/fresh tires/half throttle blocking shenanigans by Chase Elliott led to him finishing second.  (It also provided some interesting post-race fireworks, so-to-speak.)

Finally, Harvick performed well in the next gen short track parade held at Bristol in 2022.  The #4 team pitted late and had some bad luck.  Harvick ended up finishing 10th and was eliminated from the playoffs in the first round.  Still his average finish over the last three non-dirt Bristol races is 6.33.

Martinsville Speedway:

Normally, I wouldn’t put Martinsville Speedway on a list of tracks at which I suspect Harvick would have a chance to win.  He does have one career victory there, but that was back in 2011.  His lack of results at Martinsville ended his chances to compete for the 2020 championship.

In 44 races at Martinsville, Harvick only has 5 top 5s.  Furthermore, he only has 20 top 10s.  Martinsville is not one of Harvick’s better tracks.  At times, it could probably be listed as one of his worst.  Harvick’s last top 10 at Martinsville was the spring race in 2021.  His last top 5 was in the spring race of 2018.  So why am I including Martinsville in this last instead of a track like say Michigan–where he has 6 career victories?

While Harvick ended his season-plus long winless streak at Michigan in 2022, it took a little bit of luck with the timing of pit stops and cautions to put him in position to win there.  His numbers are better at Michigan, and he will probably have decent odds to win there this year.  Still, Stewart-Haas Racing performed rather well at Martinsville earlier this year.  Harvick seems to perform better with the low-downforce rules package, as does the rest of his team, and even his manufacturer (Ford.)  This is ultimately why I believe that the #4 team has a much better chance at winning Martinsville than Michigan.

Phoenix Raceway:

Phoenix Raceway is obviously a track at which Kevin Harvick can win.  In 41 starts, he has 30 top 10 finishes, 20 of which were top 5s, 9 of which were victories. Harvick broke the record for consecutive top 10 finishes at a single track in the 2022 season finale at Phoenix.  It was his 19th straight top 10 finish at the track.  He then broke his own record in the first race at Phoenix in 2023 with a 5th place finish.  Harvick has 20 straight top 10 finishes at Phoenix.  It is pretty safe to say that in his final NASCAR Cup series race of his career later this year that record will move to 21 consecutive top 10 finishes at Phoenix.

History is on his side at Phoenix.  Also, Phoenix Raceway is one of the tracks which utilize the low-downforce rules package that seems to play to Harvick’s strengths as a driver.  He finished 5th earlier this year, but his car was by far the strongest on the long runs.  Harvick looked as if he was going to get his 10th win at the track, until a late race caution set up a shorter run to the finish.

If I had to choose one of these five tracks, I feel like Phoenix is Harvick’s best chance at a win.  Still the other four are pretty decent opportunities for a win in his final season.

No Reason for Fans of the #4 to Panic:

The string of bad luck and the bad finishes that come with such luck probably has some Harvick fans worried about him getting a win in his final season.  I know such worries have crossed my mind.  It has been a very Harvick-at-RCR type of year for the #4 team.  By that I mean that he has consistently outperformed his teammates and gotten the most out of equipment that may not be top tier.  Overall, Stewart-Haas Racing (and Ford in general) have struggled somewhat this season.

The late 2010s and, particularly, the 2020 season (in which Harvick won 9 times) set a new standard for Harvick fans.  This was a standard of dominance, at least in terms of wins and laps led.  I think that recent memory of that level of performance has kind of skewed expectations for many fans.  It certainly did for me.

It’s hard to say whether or not a driver will win or not in a season.  This is especially the case with the next gen car.  Furthermore, SHR has struggled this year.  Still there is no reason to panic for Harvick fans.  I’m sure that the crew chief/driver combination of Childers/Harvick is not done winning.  I believe their best chances for victory will be at the five tracks I mentioned.  Let us know what you think in the comments section below.