On Thursday, Austin Hill and Richard Childress Racing (RCR) announced that the driver would be returning to team for the 2024 and 2025 season. With the extension, Hill will be slated to run fulltime in the Xfinity Series for the next two seasons. The news comes as a bit of a surprise as many figured Hill to be Cup Series bound next year. Especially with Kaulig Racing’s 31 car open after the Justin Haley departure, many penciled Hill into that Chevy opening. Instead, Hill has agreed to run in NASCAR’s secondary season for the time being.
Since joining RCR for the 2022 season, Austin Hill has been a top driver in the Xfinity Series. In his 55 Xfinity starts with RCR, Hill has racked up 6 wins, 24 Top-5s, and 38 Top-10s. Currently, he is the points leader of the series. While his Truck Series results might have tipped the potential of Hill, the strong success in the Xfinity Series has been a bit surprising. When Sheldon Creed and Hill were tabbed to pilot the two RCR cars, Creed was the headliner between the two. Although Hill had 8 Truck Series wins to his name, Creed was a former champion (and younger). Instead, Hill is looking to be the future star while Creed has struggled.
In the current landscape of the Xfinity Series, Austin Hill looks to be a championship threat for three seasons. For this season, the championship battle is shaping up to be between Hill and John Hunter Nemechek. With the rumors of Nemechek’s imminent callup to Legacy Motor Club, Hill will be the heavy 2024 championship favorite (and 2025 if he remains in Xfinity). This is a testament to Hill’s development. 2023 has been a banner year for Hill. At the start of the season, many thought Hill would replicate his 2022: superspeedway wins and Top-10s everywhere else. However, Hill has broken through for wins at Las Vegas and Pocono (plus two superspeedways). Also, Hill is racking up Top-5s at a variety of tracks. He has already surpassed his 2022 total for Top-5s through 22 races. This extension could line Hill up to win multiple Xfinity Series championships.
A Strong RCR
There is no question that this announcement is great for RCR. Austin Hill has been the top tiered driver that their Xfinity Series program had been missing since Tyler Reddick moved to the Cup Series. In between Reddick and Hill, RCR’s Xfinity Series program had been a bit of a mess. Myatt Snider won a race with the team, but did little else to impress. Anthony Alfredo’s most memorable moment in the 21 car saw him ride the wall at Kansas. With the addition of Hill, RCR is back to being one of the top teams in the Xfinity Series.
As with any sport, depth is the name of the game. The Hill extension has given RCR driver depth. After the acquisition of Kyle Busch, RCR’s Cup Series teams are essentially set for the long term. Barring multiple repeat seasons like 2023, Austin Dillon likely remains in the 3 car until he wants out. While many fans might groan about it, Dillon has done a respectable job. He is no Dale Earnhardt, but Dillon usually runs Top-20 in points, wins a race here or there, and usually finds himself in the playoffs. Nothing to set the world on fire but solid enough to keep him in the seat, along with other factors. Meanwhile, Kyle Busch also has that sort of handshake deal. As long as Busch wants to drive for RCR, RCR will have him.
Now that Hill has signed on for two more seasons, Hill is the contingency plan if something changes. Hill seems to be Cup Series ready, so if he had to replace Dillon or Busch in 2025, then RCR would likely feel confident about that move. Also, Hill running in the Xfinity Series will take pressure off of Sheldon Creed. Hill can be the primary Xfinity driver while Creed finds his footing.
Bypassing the Cup Series?
For Austin Hill, this move seems like a bit of a head scratcher. Outside of winning the championship (which he could do this year), Hill has little seemingly left to do in the Xfinity Series. Nobody would have questioned Kaulig Racing or any other Cup Series team signing Hill to drive their Cup car for them. Many people expected that move to be made. Kaulig Racing and Austin Hill sounded like the ideal partnership. Instead, Hill returns to the Xfinity Series for at least one more season.
Not only is Austin Hill returning to the Xfinity Series, he is returning to a team with no near-term upward mobility. While plans can change, RCR will likely not have an open seat for at least two or three seasons. As mentioned earlier, Busch and Dillon have job security with their rides. With the rising costs of charters, it is doubtful that RCR is buying one anytime soon. Even if they were in the market for one, the constant chatter in silly season is that no one is selling a charter. Leasing could be an option but there have been no rumors around RCR about looking for one.
Now, there was no confirmed news that Austin Hill was offered a Cup Series ride. There was plenty of speculation, but nothing that was known in the public. Would it be surprising to hear that there was no Cup offer from any team? Yes, especially since it seems that Hill has the necessary funding to find a Cup ride. Plus, Austin Hill will be turning 30 next year and is no longer considered a prospect. One would think he would want to enter the Cup Series sooner rather than later. With that said, the current crop of Cup Series openings are not necessarily the best rides out there.
Dominate Xfinity vs. Mid-Pack Cup
Under the assumption Austin Hill was getting feelers from Cup Series teams, why would the driver from Georgia choose to run in the Xfinity Series? Every NASCAR driver wants to run in the Cup Series. It is the pinnacle of the sport. If there is an opportunity, most drivers take it. However, Hill is going back to RCR where he is blocked by two long-term Cup Series drivers.
While it may seem confusing, Austin Hill might have made a choice to value competitiveness over a Cup opportunity. When evaluating the potential Cup Series openings, the list is not an impressive. The best open ride has already been taken by Josh Berry. Trackhouse and the 48 of Hendrick Motorsports were locked down before the season began. Based on existing contracts and consensus knowledge, the two best open Cup cars are Stewart-Haas Racing’s 10 and Kaulig Racing’s 31. Both of those cars currently sit outside the Top-20 in points. If those are the best options, how lucrative does that sound?
SHR has been on a downward slide since 2019. Outside of Kevin Harvick, every SHR car has progressively gotten worse. Meanwhile, Kaulig Racing has gone from Xfinity powerhouse to a bit of a concern across two series. While funding was mentioned as a partial reason for Haley leaving, it cannot be a great sign that a young driver left the team to join Rick Ware Racing.
Meanwhile, RCR has been a top ride in the Xfinity Series for the majority of the 21st century. Outside of 2020-21, RCR has been a yearly contender in recent years. Austin Hill is a championship level driver with RCR in the Xfinity Series. If the relationship is working there, does it not make more sense for Hill to compete for championships while waiting for the 3, 8, or 33? Hill has found a home and it is sensible he would rather run in top equipment rather than struggle in mid-pack cars.
Is Austin Hill the First?
Austin Hill has chosen to remain in the Xfinity Series. In theory, he is bypassing a Cup Series ride for two more seasons with RCR in NASCAR’s secondary series. This could be one driver’s decision to remain with a team he is comfortable with at this stage in his career. However, it could be the first of a few similar moves.
Zane Smith
When Front Row Motorsports announced Zane Smith would not be one of their fulltime Cup Series drivers next year, many assumed Smith would be finding a new team to call home. However, Front Row will be offering Smith an opportunity to stay with the team. Looking at the Cup Series options, would it make more sense for Smith to run in championship caliber equipment again despite it being in a lower series?
The leading candidate for Smith (if he were to leave) is SHR’s 10. Is SHR looking better than Front Row? Front Row has a win this season while SHR does not. Michael McDowell is ahead of every non-Harvick SHR driver in the points. Todd Gilliland is having the best sophomore season out of the rookies from last year. Front Row seems to be on an upswing compared to SHR’s downturn. Smith might face the same decision as Austin Hill did.
John Hunter Nemechek
While John Hunter Nemechek is looking Cup Series bound for 2024, could he pull the same move? Legacy Motor Club has been awful in 2023. While the switch to Toyota should help, will the 42 team be any better than a Top-20 car next season? Meanwhile, Joe Gibbs Racing is the reigning Xfinity Series champion. Especially considering Martin Truex Jr seems likely to retire after next season, Nemechek might decide to wait in Xfinity until Truex or Hamlin leaves JGR.
Although Toyota might feel differently, Nemechek has already drove for a lesser Cup Series team before. Instead of grinding it out, Nemechek went back through the lower series to gift himself a better opportunity in the Cup Series. Will Legacy Motor Club be a vast improvement over Front Row from 2020? Once again, Toyota might dump money into the team to improve for 2024. How far does that get Legacy Motor Club? Can Nemechek resemble what Ty Gibbs has done this season? If not, what is the massive incentive for Nemechek to leave the Xfinity Series and potentially miss out on a JGR ride in 2025? Is Legacy Motor Club the opportunity Nemechek was working toward when he went to the Truck Series in 2021?
Austin Hill could be an outlier rather than the start of a new trend. However, the surprise move to stay in the Xfinity Series could see ripple effects. When it comes to this silly season, the dilemma might boil down to running and chasing wins in top equipment for a lower series versus gaining valuable NextGen seat time in lesser equipment while battling for Top-20s. As for Hill, he decided to stay running for championships while likely getting spot starts in the Cup Series with Beard Motorsports and RCR.
