It is time for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway. Fifteen playoff spots have been locked up already. One spot remains for seventeen eligible drivers. 160 laps around the World Center of Racing. For NASCAR, this is the ideal situation heading into the summer Daytona race. Since the second Daytona race was moved as the regular season finale, the event has been the spectacle NASCAR has wanted. The win-and-in format of the playoffs, the pressure of being the last chance to win, and the chaos of a superspeedway has made this race must see. However, last year was mired in controversy as NASCAR hesitated to throw a caution when it was sprinkling on certain parts of the track. Then the entire field wrecked, except for Austin Dillon. This is why NASCAR has been overly cautious with rain yellows this year.
For this year’s Coke Zero Sugar 400, the drama has been cranked up. Not only are there seventeen drivers vying for the final playoff, but big names are part of that mix. None of the names are bigger than Chase Elliott, who has to win in order to make it. Hendrick teammate Alex Bowman is in the same situation. AJ Allmendinger failed to win a road course race, so he is also on the outside looking in. Meanwhile, Bubba Wallace is currently in on points with a decently comfortable point margin.
For this week’s 5 Drivers to Watch, the focus will be on the drivers on the outside looking in. In theory, these drivers will be the most aggressive late in the race. However, they will have to survive at least 159 laps to be in position to win the race. Who are the five drivers to watch this Saturday for the Coke Zero Sugar 400?
If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles. Also, remember to try it first (yeah, yeah, yeah).
Ty Gibbs
Ty Gibbs has a shot of pointing his way into the playoffs still. He currently sits seventeenth in the standings, 32 points behind Bubba Wallace. With this gap, Gibbs would need to score stage points and finish toward the top of the leaderboard. Plus, Wallace would need to fail to score any stage points. If Wallace finishes thirteenth or better without stage points, Gibbs cannot point his way into the playoffs. That leaves Gibbs in a peculiar situation compared to the others in this article.
While a small chance, Gibbs can still point his way in. In order to do so, Gibbs will need to score stage points. Without scoring stage points, Wallace would have to DNF out of the race early to give Gibbs his best chance. However, running near the front might endanger Gibbs to calamity. If Gibbs decides to ride around the back, he will miss out on stage points. In the (unlikely) circumstance there are no DNFs until after Stage 2, what if Wallace is the first one to DNF at that point? Gibbs would have to finish third or better. For this Saturday, expect the strategy for Gibbs to run at the front of the pack to gain as many points as possible. At Daytona, being the leader is usually the safest place on the track.
Alex Bowman
At least one Hendrick Motorsports driver will miss out on the playoffs. Both could easily miss out as both needs to win their way in. While a lot of the focus has been placed on Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman could pull the upset within the Hendrick camp. In terms of speed, Bowman usually brings it to the sunshine state. Since joining Hendrick motorsports, Bowman has qualified on the front row six times. However, only once has he done it for the night race.
Despite the speed, Bowman usually finds himself on the wrong end of accidents during the race. While he only has one DNF at the track, Bowman has seven finishes off the lead lap. In his 11 Hendrick starts, Bowman has an average finish of 15.9. However, he has only finished outside the Top-10 once in five night race starts with the team. Plus, Bowman is coming off a career best of fifth (at the track) in this year’s Daytona 500. Bowman has Daytona-specific momentum heading into the Coke Zero Sugar 400. While he has one teammate still vying for a spot, his other two already clinched their way. Surely, Rick Hendrick would like to see at least three of his cars in the playoffs. Some team orders might fall friendly for Bowman, especially if Elliott does not have a chance to win.
Corey LaJoie
Despite the rough patch Corey LaJoie has hit recently, 2023 has still be a career season for the Spire Motorsports driver. The progress was enough to convince LaJoie to reup with Spire for seasons to come. While he has fallen in the points, LaJoie’s best shot at the playoffs was always the superspeedways. LaJoie led late in last year’s summer Atlanta race. He ran in the lead pack for a majority of the Daytona 500 this season. Plus, drivers have seemed more comfortable working with LaJoie compared to previous seasons.
Corey LaJoie has three Top-10s previously at Daytona. None have come since the switch to the NextGen car though. Despite LaJoie’s improved speed in the NextGen car, it has not translated into better finishing results at the World Center of Racing. The big question is how aggressive LaJoie will be to secure a playoff spot. While winning is his only chance to make the postseason, can Spire Motorsports afford a junked car via LaJoie making an overly aggressive move? Maybe the answer is yes. However, if LaJoie is running in that lead pack, he will be an underdog driver to cheer for to snag that final playoff spot.
Erik Jones
Legacy Motor Club could use a win in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 to give their season some positivity. Between the poor results from both cars and the Noah Gragson controversy, Legacy Motor Club has been seen in a negative light all season. Add in the 23XI Racing rumors that might tie to LMC joining Toyota, the team could use something good to happen this weekend. Luckily, Erik Jones would be a feel good story to find victory lane.
Throughout all the controversy, Jones has quietly been putting together solid results over the summer (minus the road courses). Three Top-10s over the past ten races might not be impressive, but it is positive progress for a team in a terrible season. Plus, those were Jones’s first Top-10s on non-superspeedways for the season. With his other two Top-10s at superspeedways, Daytona should be the ideal place for the 43 team to see this weekend. However, Daytona has been unkind to Jones after the 2019 Daytona 500. Since his third place finish at that race, Jones only has one lead lap finish in eight starts. Is Erik Jones due a good finish this weekend? With his superspeedway success this season, Jones could be a contender for the win.
Aric Almirola
When considering what could be the best story coming out of Daytona, the Florida driver winning his (likely) last fulltime Daytona race would be a contender. Aric Almirola has found victory lane before in the Coke Zero Sugar 400. His first career win came in this race in 2014. That race also allowed him to make the playoffs that season. It would be compelling if Almirola’s last victory came in the same race and entered him into the playoffs. Based on the rumblings of silly season, Almirola is out of his ride at the end of the season.
An Aric Almirola win is not a far-stretched possibility either. Ford dominated the Daytona 500 this season. RFK Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing worked well with each and lead the bulk of the laps. While SHR has been slow this season (outside of Kevin Harvick), there is no reason to expect their four teams to be this weekend. Sticking with teammates is the name of the game at Daytona. If the SHR four can remained linked up throughout the race, then Almirola (along with Chase Briscoe and Ryan Preece) has a legitimate chance at winning his way into the playoffs.
