On August 20th, 2023, at Watkins Glen, both Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski were able to clinch playoff positions based on points. Neither performed remarkably well, but William Byron’s win locked them in. While both were able to compete in the regular season finale at Daytona without worry, both did remarkably well. The question now becomes how far will they make it in the playoffs. In this article, I look at the championship chances for both Harvick and Keselowski.
Kevin Harvick’s Championship Chances:
Regular Season Performance:
The 2014 Cup champion will have one final chance to get another championship in his final year. Harvick began the 2023 season in a rather strong fashion. In the five of the first eight races, he finished in the top 10. Harvick was on his way to another Phoenix victory when a late race caution hindered his chances, and he finished with a top 5. Furthermore, he finished in the top 5 at both Auto Club Speedway and Richmond Raceway. He even grabbed a top 10 finish at the Bristol Dirt Race.
In the ninth race of the season, Harvick pulled off a stage win at Martinsville. Despite some bad luck keeping him out of the top 10, Harvick looked like he would find his way to victory lane soon. Yet, in the 10 races following Martinsville, Harvick only finished in the top 10 twice. One was a second place finish at Darlington, while the other was a tenth place finish at World Wide Technology Raceway.
Harvick turned around his performance in the final seven races of the regular season. In these final seven regular season races, Harvick finished in the top 10 five times. The highlights from this seven race span included two fourth place finishes (at New Hampshire and Pocono), clinching a playoff berth at Watkins Glen, and his strong performance in the season finale at Daytona. Harvick looked very capable of winning the Daytona race, but fell short due to the spectacular teamwork of RFK Racing.
Time to close. #4EVER pic.twitter.com/C4861AN5m5
— Stewart-Haas Racing (@StewartHaasRcng) August 28, 2023
A Possible Playoff Path to a Championship:
Harvick doesn’t have many playoff points. He has a total of 4 of them. By comparison, William Byron and Martin Truex, Jr. each have 36 playoff points. That puts Harvick 32 points down to the top two drivers. Still, Christopher Bell, who is 7th in the playoff standings, only has 14 playoff points. Harvick is only 10 points behind him. I think it is fair to assume then that Harvick could possibly make it to the round of 8 just by being consistent. They will have to be consistent however.
The tracks in the first round seem to benefit Harvick, especially Darlington and Bristol. It is the second round where I have some concerns. The tracks in the second round are Texas, Talladega, and the Roval. Looking at those three races and considering SHR’s performance this year, Talladega would seem to be his best chance for a victory in this round. This is really problematic considering how random superspeedway racing can be. It is even more problematic that the 4 team has not performed well at all on road courses this season. While Harvick finished 2nd at the Roval last year, I would not want to see him heading to the Roval needing a top 10 to advance.
If Harvick can get through the round of 12, whether via consistency or wins, I think it is fair to assume he will have decent odds on making it to the final four. The third round of the playoffs contain tracks which also benefit Harvick. Las Vegas and Homestead have historically been good for Harvick. Furthermore, Harvick has really improved at Martinsville this season. In fact, I think he could very easily win at Martinsville. If Harvick can make it to the final four at Phoenix, well it would be hard to bet against him.
Brad Keselowski’s Championship Chances:
Regular Season Performance:
Like Harvick, Keselowski has had a pretty consistent regular season despite having no wins. While Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick had each had similar regular seasons as individual drivers, the biggest difference between them comes down to their teams. RFK Racing is arguably the top Ford team, while Stewart-Haas Racing could be seen as fourth in line at Ford.
Keselowski has eleven top 10 finishes in 2023, six of which were top 5 finishes. The 2012 (Keselowski) and 2014 (Harvick) cup series champions share the same number of top 5 finishes. (Harvick has one more top 10 finish, at twelve total.) Furthermore, Keselowski, like Harvick, has struggled at road course races. Also like Harvick, Keselowski seems to be strongest at the superspeedways and oval tracks which utilize the short track wet weather rules package.
Keselowski starts the playoffs with 6 more playoff points than Harvick. He has 10 playoff points to Harvick’s 4. While Harvick looked stronger earlier in the regular season, Keselowski looks stronger now. Both drivers could have won the regular season finale at Daytona. Harvick had no one to push him at the end, while Keselowski was busy pushing his teammate, Chris Buescher, to the victory.
A Possible Path to a Championship:
As stated, Keselowski has more playoff points than does Harvick. In fact, Kyle Busch, who starts the playoffs fifth in the standings only has 9 more points than does Keselowski. Therefore, I think it is fair to assume that Keselowski could make it to the round of the eight on consistency alone. While Keselowski has also struggled at road courses, he hasn’t struggled on these tracks as much as Harvick.
Given Keselowski’s lack of performance at the road courses, and the random nature of Talladega, the round of 12 will be the toughest round for him as well. That being said, the 2023 Daytona 500 is the only superspeedway race in which Keselowski finished outside the top 10. I honestly think it will be more difficult for Harvick to get through this second round than Keselowski. Still, I see both making it to the round of 8.
“We did it buddy. 1-2 at Daytona” pic.twitter.com/JMXV8gjvts
— RFK Racing (@RFKracing) August 27, 2023
Keselowski also has the benefit of having a teammate in the playoffs. RFK Racing has performed very well as a team. The season finale at Daytona was a great example of that. RFK Racing has all the momentum heading into the playoffs. I think it’s a given that at least one of their two drivers makes it to the final four, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them both make it.
Conclusions:
Harvick and Keselowski are both cup series champions. Harvick is in his final season, and would like to add one more. Keselowski would love to add a second title as well. It would certainly put the exclamation point on RFK Racing having come full circle back to the top of the sport.
Neither of these drivers have won this season, though both have had races where they were quite capable of winning this season. One’s team seems to be on the decline, but he is still getting everything he can out of his final season. The other one’s team is on the rise. I see both as sleeper candidates for the championship. It would be hard to bet against either.
