The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs officially kick off this weekend with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington. Sixteen drivers will compete over the next ten weeks to determine the 2023 Cup Series Champion. Darlington Raceway hosts the first race, where drivers will battle the track perhaps more than their opposing drivers. As seen in this year’s throwback race, Darlington can produce wild finishes and high drama. In the spring, Ross Chastain took out Kyle Larson in the closing laps. Last Southern 500, Erik Jones managed to hold off Denny Hamlin. With Jones’s win, it set the tone for the Round of 16 where no playoff driver won a race. Can that happen this year? Will a non-playoff driver prevail in the Cook Out Southern 500 this weekend?
A lot of the focus will center around the sixteen drivers in the playoff field. These sixteen drivers will represent ten different teams, which is a record for a NASCAR playoff. When considering who the favorites might be, it is tough to decide. Martin Truex Jr won the regular season championship. William Byron won the most races, but had a lukewarm summer when not winning. Kyle Busch has usually looked fast when he has not DNFed. Chris Buescher is the hottest driver on the circuit, but the two hottest drivers last year were eliminated in the first round. Plus, there are plenty of quality cars outside the playoffs who can factor into the championship picture.
As for this weekend’s Cook Out Southern 500, who will be the five drivers to watch? Will they all be playoff drivers? Continue reading to find out. If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Kyle Larson
During the spring Darlington race, Kyle Larson was battling for the lead against Ross Chastain in the closing laps. On a restart with six to go, Chastain attempted to pass underneath Larson through Turns 1 and 2. Instead of making the pass, Chastain wrecked out and ruined Larson’s race. Larson saw a Top-5 finish evaporate away due to Chastain’s aggressive driving.
Heading into the playoffs, Larson sits ten points above the cutline. While Larson does a have points cushion, it is not as large as many would have expected (especially for the first round). With Darlington being a friendly track to Larson, he will look to build momentum after sputtering a bit heading into the playoffs. Over the last eight races, Larson has finished outside the Top-10 five times. Of those five times, three have been outside the Top-25. The issue has not been speed though. If Larson can avoid incidents and penalties, he should be set for a great race at Darlington. Perhaps Larson can claim the Cook Out Southern 500 for his first Darlington win.
Carson Hocevar
Since Noah Gragson has been removed from the 42 ride, the driver situation for that car has been revolving door. Up next in said car is Carson Hocevar making his second career Cup Series start. Obviously, the 42 car has been one of the worst cars on track each weekend. Among the various drivers who have wheeled the 42, it has only finished inside the Top-20 twice: spring Atlanta and Watkins Glen. Expectations should be low for Carson Hocevar this weekend.
If there are no expectations for Hocevar, then why is he a driver to watch? For starters, Hocevar runs well at Darlington in the lower series. His worst finish in the Craftsman Truck Series at the track is eleventh in four starts. Meanwhile, he ran the spring Xfinity race this season and finished sixth. There is potential that Hocevar could be the third Top-20 on the season, especially since he was running surprisingly well at WWT Raceway for Spire’s 77 before his brakes gave out.
On top of that reason, this race could be a soft audition for a Cup Series ride next year. Silly season rumors have Hocevar as a candidate for Spire’s 77. If Hocevar can replicate Josh Berry’s earlier success with Hendrick, maybe Hocevar can land a better 2024 ride.
Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski has always ran well at Darlington Raceway. Even last season, where the 6 team lacked speed, Keselowski finished in the Top-10 at the Southern 500. Earlier this season, Keselowski earned his first Top-5 at a non-superspeedway on the season during throwback weekend. With the momentum from a strong 2023 regular season, Keselowski could be a threat to win the opening race of the playoffs. Although his only Darlington win came in 2018, Keselowski’s recent runs suggest a win is on the horizon.
Entering the playoffs, Brad Keselowski sits three points above the cutline. He is the top driver without a win in the playoffs. While Keselowski lacks a win, he has scored the eighth most stage points this season. This includes three stage wins. Much like teammate Chris Buescher, Keselowski seems likely to advance through the first round. The question is whether he can make it out of the Round of 12. A Cook Out Southern 500 win on Sunday night could help boost Keselowski through the playoff rounds.
Erik Jones
The reigning champion of the Southern 500 comes into this year’s event under different circumstances. While last year he also missed the playoffs, Jones was a Top-20 points driver through the regular season. This season, Jones and the 43 team have been a shell of their 2022 self. After the 2022 season, there was optimism for Jones’s playoff chances. Instead, the entire Legacy Motor Club has imploded. There have been few positives for the 43 team to take away from the regular season.
The first indication of how poor this season was for Erik Jones was his poor showing at Darlington. Before this season, Jones’s worst non-DNF finish at Darlington was eighteenth in the spring of 2021. During his time with Joe Gibbs Racing, Jones averaged a 5.17 average finish. Even if Jones struggles at other tracks, Darlington has always been a strength. That is why Jones is still one to watch this weekend. If you are looking for an upset pick for the Cook Out Southern 500, Erik Jones would not be a bad one to go with.
Kevin Harvick
While Erik Jones runs well at Darlington, Kevin Harvick has been its master since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014. If not for the car trying to burn him alive last fall, Harvick would likely have a streak of fifteen straight Top-10s heading into tonight. Since joining SHR, Harvick’s average finish at the Lady in Black is 5.33. If you take away last fall’s DNF, that average improves to 3.36. This includes two Top-5s in the NextGen car as well.
Kevin Harvick has yet to win during his retirement tour. He led late in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 last weekend, but the RFK teammates drove by him on the last restart. Darlington might be the track to host Harvick’s first (and maybe only) win of 2023. His past performances speaks to Harvick being a threat to win. As for the playoffs, Harvick starts below the cutline. A win would take the pressure off the remainder of the Round of 16. Harvick has been bitten by bad luck during his recent playoff runs, especially last year.
