As the NASCAR Cup Series powers closer the playoffs, the field heads to Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400. With four races left of the regular season, the FireKeepers Casino 400 is the last “normal” race before the playoffs. While Michigan is not quite the typical intermediate track, it is closer to the norm than two road courses and Daytona. Especially with the Indy GP and Coke Zero 400 upcoming, this race might be the last bit of calm before chaos breaks out. For the drivers on the playoff bubble, this race will be huge for expanding/narrowing the gap to the cutoff line.
Returning to a traditional oval will be a welcome sight for NASCAR fans. The NextGen car thrives on this type of track. When considering the best races of the NextGen era, they usually take place on the larger intermediates not named Texas. Last year, the FireKeepers Casino 400 was an exciting race that saw Kevin Harvick snap his losing streak and claim his first win in over a year. Can Harvick repeat that success this year as he enters the same race with no wins? Perhaps there will be a new winner, making it fourteen different winners on the season. With the Toyotas and Trackhouse running well here last season, will there be a shake up in the playoffs? Who will be the five drivers to watch in the FireKeepers Casino 400?
Bubba Wallace
After running well at Richmond and expanding his playoff cutline lead, Bubba Wallace heads to a track where finished second in 2022. Wallace, who qualified on the pole, has found success at the larger intermediate ovals. Michigan falls nicely into that niche. With a 54 point advantage over the cutline, Wallace will look to expand that lead. While every driver hates points racing, Wallace must attempt to run the race that will net him the most points. Luckily, Michigan is not a track where various strategies play a key importance (if he has speed).
While Wallace might be a driver to watch for the win, the more intriguing prospect is to see how many points Wallace can put between the cutline and himself. Wallace has increased his lead over the cutline nicely over the past two weekends. However, he must keep that up if he wants to have less pressure at Daytona. The following two races will be held at road courses. Notoriously, Wallace is a poor road racer. Wallace will need to bolster his gap as much as possible to avoid potential disaster at the Indy GP and Watkins Glenn. If Wallace can win a Michigan, then that would ease his worries. However, a lack of a win here could lead to a tight gap heading into Daytona, where one unlucky break could be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.
Brad Keselowski
While not officially locked into the playoffs, Brad Keselowski has to feel more comfortable than the drivers behind him. His point cushion to the playoff cutline is essentially insurmountable in the current climate. However, the danger is if new winners start popping up over the next four weekends. Keselowski could see that cutline pass him if three new winners (with one not being Kevin Harvick) happen before Darlington. While that might seem unlikely, two Hendrick drivers have yet to win, the Indy GP could be a wildcard, and Daytona is always chaos.
Last year at Michigan, Keselowski finished outside the Top-10 but had flashes of times in the Top-10. While the longer intermediates have been a weak point still for RFK Racing, Keselowski did finish seventh at Auto Club. Auto Club is the closest track that resembles Michigan, which could bode well for Keselowski. Despite Keselowski’s comfortable point gap to the cutline, he is within striking distance of overtaking Harvick. If Harvick slips up, Keselowski can take over the top non-winner points spot. If there is a flurry of new winners prior to the regular season ending, that spot might be valuable. Keselowski will go after the FireKeepers Casino 400 win, but might play some points strategy if there is an opportunity to gain on Kevin Harvick.
Kyle Busch
While Kyle Larson and William Byron have taken a lot of the headlines, Kyle Busch has been the most consistent Chevy this season. Clearly, his move to RCR was the right one for his career. After last weekend’s impressive Top-5, Busch heads to a track that is similar to his first win with RCR. As mentioned earlier, Auto Club and Michigan share similarities. With the speed Busch showed at Auto Club, it would not be surprising to see him dominate this weekend.
For Kyle Busch, the goal should be to rack up as many playoff points as possible. Whether it is via stage wins or race wins, that should be the mindset moving forward. He is 96 points back of the points lead with three drivers in between him and the leader. While winning the regular season championship is valuable, Busch can make up those playoff points by leading and winning races. Michigan would be his best shot at that. Look for Kyle Busch to head up the field this weekend if Auto Club is to be replicated.
Daniel Suarez
Daniel Suarez has been drifting further away from the cutline over the past few weeks. Outside of his second at Atlanta, Suarez has failed to finish in the Top-10 since Gateway. His average finish has ballooned this season to 19.8 (up from 16.5). While Trackhouse has been slow this summer, a lot of Suarez’s issues have been self-made. At Richmond, they had an issue on a pit stop when attempting the one stop strategy. Shortly after making that one pit stop, Suarez was back down pit road. Sonoma was supposed to be a race where Suarez contended for the win. Instead, he missed a shift and it ruined his race from the start.
Michigan might be a welcome sight for Daniel Suarez. Last year, both he and teammate Ross Chastain had fast cars. Combined, the two led 54 laps. Unfortunately for them, they got caught up in an incident and finished off the lead lap. For Suarez’s playoff hopes, he needs to build momentum from Michigan. He has to pass three drivers in points in order to make the postseason (if no one new wins). A win seems like a longshot currently, so Suarez should take advantage of a track where he should have a speed advantage over Michael McDowell, Ty Gibbs, and AJ Allmendinger.
Joey Logano
On paper, Joey Logano is having another solid season. He has one win, so he is locked into the playoffs. He sits tenth in points with 7 Top-5s and 11 Top-10s. However, when you watch the 22 during race day, the Penske speed has not been as expected. A chunk of Logano’s good finishes have been the result of well timed cautions. Even Logano’s Top-5 at Richmond only resulted due to the late race caution. Penske as a whole seems to be lacking a bit of speed.
With that said, Michigan is a hometown race for the blue ovals. Logano has historically ran well at the track with 3 wins and a 12.2 average finish. Last season, Logano finished in the Top-5 after running Top-10 all race. With this in mind, it would not be surprising to see Logano contend for the win this weekend. Ryan Blaney won at Charlotte and Kevin Harvick won last year. Although the Toyotas have been tuned well at Michigan, expect Joey Logano to be battling for the win at the FireKeepers Casino 400.
