For the last time this regular season, the NASCAR Cup Series will race on a road course. This year’s iteration of the Go Bowling at the Glen is the last chance to shuffle the playoff picture before the chaos of Daytona next weekend. As for Watkins Glen, it is considered by many NASCAR fans as the best road course on the schedule. While other road courses are more technical, Watkins Glen is significantly faster. Last season, the pole qualifying speed of 125.147 was 16.74 MPH faster than the second fastest road course. Even fans who dislike road racing in NASCAR have a fondness for Watkins Glen. This track has provided numerous memorable moments, including last year when Kyle Larson forgot Chase Elliott was his teammate on the last restart.
After Michael McDowell’s win last week, the playoff cutline moved up to Bubba Wallace. With the new winner, the list of drivers who can still point their way is limited. Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski will clinch if there is no new winner (or if either of them win). Only two new winners will knock out one of either Harvick or Keselowski. Meanwhile, Wallace holds a 28 point advantage over Daniel Suarez. Suarez has a realistic chance of pointing his way in. Ty Gibbs (who sits 49 points back) would need Wallace to struggle mightily. Everyone else is in must-win territory. With a lot of those most win drivers being great road course racers, Watkins Glen is shaping up to be a thrilling event.
With the playoffs around the corner and the open spots getting limited, who will be the five drivers to watch this Sunday for the Go Bowling at the Glen? If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Daniel Suarez
Out of the drivers on the outside of the current playoff cutline, Daniel Suarez has the best chance of still pointing his way into the playoffs. Based on his speed at the Indy GP, Suarez should be up front at Watkins Glen. Also, his three Top-5s, including last year’s fifth, at the Glen point to another strong run. If he can repeat his Top-5 speed, Suarez can greatly benefit from receiving stage points. Under the assumption Bubba Wallace does not score any stage points, Suarez could reduce the gap significantly if he is able to repeat his stage point score success from Indianapolis before the end of the race.
Daniel Suarez could have been the winning driver last week to throw off the playoff situation. However, a long pit stop due to running over the air hose cost Suarez precious seconds that he could not recover from. While it is no guarantee he would have won with a clean pit stop, he might have been the driver battling Michael McDowell for the win. Suarez and his team cannot have a major issue this weekend. While Suarez can point his way in, the safest option would be to win. With the stage cautions gone this weekend, Suarez can both stage point race and go for the win. During the Go Bowling at the Glen, Suarez will look to strategize for both to cover all of his playoff chances.
Kyle Larson
The two-time reigning winner at Watkins Glen has been quiet on the road courses this season. Only at the Chicago Street course has Larson looked to have race winning speed on this type of track. Yet, he has still finished in the Top-10 at every road course other than COTA. With that considered, Watkins Glen has been a great track for Larson. On top of his two back-to-back wins, Larson has an average finish of 10.5 and three additional Top-10s in his eight starts.
Larson will be going for the three-peat at Watkins Glen this weekend. As mentioned earlier, Larson pulled a questionable move to push Chase Elliott out of the way braking into Turn 1. This allowed Larson to pick up the win, frustrating Elliott in the process. If a similar situation arises, will Larson pull the same move? Will Chase Elliott return the favor? The situation is a lot different than last year. Elliott needs a win to make the playoffs. If Larson is leading Elliott coming to the final laps, Elliott will likely not hesitate to bump Larson out of the way to secure his playoff spot. Larson’s recent history at Watkins Glen implies Larson will be out front. Elliott should be there too. Will there be another memorable finish for the Go Bowling at the Glen between these two?
Martin Truex Jr
Martin Truex Jr has become the class of the NASCAR Cup Series since the start of summer. Since his Monday afternoon win at Dover, Truex Jr has six Top-5s, including his wins at Sonoma and Loudon. After his Dover win, Truex sat fourth in the standings and 40 points behind the points leader. Now, Truex is heading into Watkins Glen with a 60 point advantage over teammate Denny Hamlin. On Sunday, Truex can clinch the regular season championship and the valuable 15 points that accompany the title.
As with many drivers in this article, Watkins Glen has been a strong track for Martin Truex Jr. From 2017 to 2021, Truex’s worst finish at the track was third. Despite only having one win at the Glen, Truex has demonstrated a high level of skill on the fast track. In almost half of his starts, Truex has finished in the Top-5. Another win on the season (and at the track) would be great for Truex. However, as long as he finds himself at least 60 points above second in the standings, his regular season championship will be clinched.
Brad Keselowski
Out of all the drivers on this list, Brad Keselowski is the worst road course racer. This season, Keselowski is averaging a measly 23.8 finishing position. In his career, Keselowski has not been a proficient road racer. While he has a respectable 16.7 average finish on road courses, he has yet to win one and that average finish is his lowest per track type by 1.5 positions. If he is mediocre on a road course, why is he one to watch this weekend?
Well, Watkins Glen has been Keselowski’s best road course by far. His 13.8 average finish is his personal best at a road course (at tracks with more than two starts). Half of his twelve starts has seen Keselowski finish in the Top-10. His first three starts in the 2 car at the track saw him finish second each time. In 2021, Keselowski started from the pole. Despite his struggles at other road courses, Keselowski has found his groove at Watkins Glen. This might be important as the points battle between him and Harvick could be intense at Daytona. Keselowski has done a great job narrowing that gap. If there is a new winner at Watkins Glen, Keselowski moving ahead of Harvick prior to Daytona will be important.
Austin Cindric
It has been a sophomore season to forget for Austin Cindric. After winning the Daytona 500 and advancing to the Round of 12 last year, 2023 has been a step backwards. He only has three Top-10s and sits outside the Top-20 in points in a Team Penske car. While his rookie season did not set the world on fire (outside the Daytona 500 win), Cindric ran similar to how Ty Gibbs is running this year. Cindric must win in order to make it into the playoffs. While mathematically he technically has a chance, the only way in for Cindric is to win.
Luckily for Austin Cindric, another road course is an opportunity for Cindric to sneak a win. Both road courses and superspeedways have been where Cindric has thrived in the Cup Series. Two of Cindric’s three Top-10s this year and four of his nine from last season came on the road courses. While a pair of sixth place finishes does not inspire race winning confidence, Cindric has a win at Watkins Glen in the Xfinity Series. Plus, the Fords are coming alive late. Team Penske is still considered the top Ford in the field. The past three races have been won by Fords, with the last one being a Front Row Motorsports car. If Front Row has the speed, then surely Cindric in his Penske ride can be competitive for the win at the Go Bowling at the Glen.
