During a silly season roundup article, Jordan Bianchi of The Athletic reported that Legacy Motor Club was considering booting Noah Gragson from his 42 ride. In that report, the running theory was that John Hunter Nemechek would replace Gragson next year. As Legacy Motor Club switches to Toyota, the manufacturer sway would seem to be the driving force of the move. Toyota is high on John Hunter Nemechek. After his 2020 rookie Cup Series, Nemechek returned to the Craftsman Truck Series to restart his career arc. During the past three seasons, Nemechek has transformed into one of the top prospects from the lower series. If not for Ty Gibbs, Nemehcek would be the best Toyota driver in the lower series over the past three seasons.
When it was announced that Legacy Motor Club would be switching to Toyota, it was a bit of a shock. Prior to Bubba Wallace’s departure, there were rumblings that the team would be switching to Toyota. However, that did not happen and Wallace left for 23XI Racing. Since, the former Richard Petty Motorsports have been bought into by two new owners: Maury Gallagher and Jimmie Johnson. After the Johnson buy-in, it was assumed that Legacy Motor Club might gain more favorability within Chevy umbrella. Instead, Toyota pulled them away. From the Toyota perspective, it is a smart move. Toyota has a ride availability issue at the Cup Series level. Their competitive teams have been limited to Joe Gibbs Racing and whichever team Joe Gibbs Racing is helping. Bringing in Legacy Motor Club gives Toyota two more seats at the Cup Series.
Upon the announcement, no one thought it would lead to any driver change. Erik Jones only left Joe Gibbs Racing/Toyota due to the seat crunch with Lavine Family Racing shutting down. Meanwhile, Noah Gragson was an exciting rookie. At the time of the announcement, there was still hope Gragson would turn around a slow start. After 22 races, there are no signs Gragson will turn it around this season. While one and done rookies are rare, it would seem that Toyota might be leaning this way.
Noah Gragson’s Lost Luster
As Robert Cwick discussed in his rookie breakdown, Noah Gragson is in the middle of a historically bad season. Through his 21 starts, Gragson sits 33rd in points, has an average finish of 28.2, and only finished on the lead lap four times. While Ty Dillon was no world beater in that car last year, he clearly outpaced Gragson in the same car in 2022. In fact, Dillon has five more lead lap finishes than Gragson in worse equipment this season.
There was tangible excitement for Noah Gragson’s rookie season. While some were cautious with their expectations, many thought Gragson would beat Ty Gibbs for Rookie of the Year. At the very least, the thought was Gragson would be a significant improvement for the 42 car. In 2022, Gragson had a career season in the Xfinity Series. Despite not winning the championship, Gragson was arguably the best driver in the series. He led the series in almost every counting statistic, including wins, Top-5s, Top-10s, and laps led. It was the season that his supporters thought he was capable during his early Xfinity days.
While the Xfinity statistics might not mean much for Cup success, his runs in the Cup Series in 2022 did not foretell this awful rookie season. Though the DNFs were an issue (5 in 18 races), Gragson ran decently. In the races he finished, Gragson averaged a 20.0 finish. Of the five DNFs Gragson had, three were on superspeedways and two were mechanical issues. These results were nothing to celebrate but demonstrated some promise. Now, there is little expectation or hope for Noah Gragson.
Limited Seats for John Hunter Nemechek
In the “2023 Silly Season Predictions” article, the discussion of John Hunter Nemechek’s future centered around the lack of available Cup Series rides with Toyota. Based on the reports, it seems that Toyota want Nemechek to make his return to the Cup Series in 2024. Based on his Xfinity Series results this season, it is understandable as to why. The current front runner for the championship likely has little to gain from another Xfinity Series season. However, the available rides within Toyota are limited.
Martin Truex Jr, Denny Hamlin, and Joe Gibbs Racing have yet to make an official announcement about the status of the 11 and 19 car next year. Gibbs has stated that Hamlin is returning to the team, but the Kyle Busch debacle from last year causes a pause before fully believing it. Meanwhile, Martin Truex Jr needs to decide whether to retire or not. It seems that the 19 car’s availability is down to whether Truex walks away or not. If Truex is similar to almost every NASCAR driver (and athlete) before him, he will remain in the 19 car.
Under the assumption those two seats are unavailable, Joe Gibbs Racing has no open seats. Neither does the current lineup for 23XI Racing. Both Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick have contracts for the 2024. That leaves Legacy Motor Club. Erik Jones signed a multi-year extension last season, so, barring a shocking move, he is safe. That only leaves the 42 ride. Gragson is on a year-to-year status. He would be the easiest to boot out of the current Toyota lineup.
Should Legacy Motor Club Do It?
In a vacuum, should Legacy Motor Club boot Noah Gragson after his awful rookie season (so far)? No. Gragson has proven to have racing talent in the Craftsman Truck and Xfinity Series. A driver who won eight times in one season should not be a one-and-done driver in the Cup Series. Cole Custer got three seasons before he got the boot. While this rookie season is historically bad, the era of rookies coming in and competing near the front is gone. These young drivers (especially with the NextGen car) need at least two seasons to demonstrate whether they have Cup Series talent or not.
Despite that, there is more than simply Noah Gragson’s career arc to consider with this decision. If Toyota is unable to bring John Hunter Nemechek to the Cup Series in 2024, will he leave the manufacturer? There have been rumors of Nemechek to Stewart-Haas Racing earlier this silly season. Nemechek might be determined to go Cup Series racing next season, whether it is with Toyota or not. Toyota made a decision to push Gragson away once before. Should they do it again? Should they choose John Hunter Nemechek over Noah Gragson?
In this decision, Legacy Motor Club and Toyota should go with John Hunter Nemechek. Does this mean that Nemechek will be/is better than Gragson? Not necessarily. However, Toyota should not risk losing Nemechek to a different manufacturer. Especially when considering Sammy Smith and Corey Heim are the next prospects in the system. Both need at least two more seasons before they are Cup Series ready.
Plus, a major factor in this decision comes down to taking care of equipment. In 40 Cup Series starts, Nemechek only has 5 DNFs. Meanwhile, Gragson has compiled 11 DNFs in 39 starts. Of those 11, 7 have been due to wrecking. Gragson might have a bright future ahead, but it will likely be with Chevy (or potentially Ford).
