This article is a race finish projection for the 2023 NASCAR Cup race at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Indy Road Course Cup Outlook article (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Martin Truex Jr.
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Chris Buescher
Projected Finish: 17th
Additional notes from last week:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Ross Chastain, 7th)
-Only 12 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected to finish
-11 of the 37 drivers finished 14+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-3 of the 37 drivers finished 30+ sports (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the Top 15 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 15
Notable results this week
Winner: Michael McDowell
One to Watch: Austin Cindric
Disappointment: Aric Almirola
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 4th -2 |
| 3. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 8th -5 |
| 4. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 2nd +2 |
| 5. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 36th -31 |
| 6. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 12th -6 |
| 7. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 5th +2 |
| 8. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 9th -1 |
| 9. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 15th -6 |
| 10. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 7th +3 |
| 11. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 3rd +8 |
| 12. | 24 | William Byron | 14th -2 |
| 13. | 91 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 10th +3 |
| 14. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 11th +3 |
| 15. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 26th -11 |
| 16. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 37th -21 |
| 17. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 29th -12 |
| 18. | 22 | Joey Logano | 34th -16 |
| 19. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 17th +2 |
| 20. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 6th +14 |
| 21. | 31 | Justin Haley | 38th -17 |
| 22. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 13th +9 |
| 23. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 18th +5 |
| 24. | 33 | Brodie Kostecki | 22nd +2 |
| 25. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 25th +0 |
| 26. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 31st -5 |
| 27. | 4 | Kevin Harvick | 23rd +4 |
| 28. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 19th +8 |
| 29. | 67 | Kamui Kobayashi | 33rd -4 |
| 30. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 21st +9 |
| 31. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 20th +11 |
| 32. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 16th +16 |
| 33. | 15 | Jenson Button | 28th +5 |
| 34. | 43 | Erik Jones | 35th -1 |
| 35. | 10 | Aric Almirola | 39th -4 |
| 36. | 78 | Josh Bilicki | 32nd +4 |
| 37. | 51 | Andy Lally | 30th +7 |
| 38. | 42 | Mike Rockenfeller | 24th +14 |
| 39. | 77 | Ty Dillon | 27th +12 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
