Saturday, November 23, 2024
HomeCup SeriesStatistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Indy Road Course

Statistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Indy Road Course

This article is a race finish projection for the 2023 NASCAR Cup race at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Indy Road Course Cup Outlook article (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Martin Truex Jr.
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Chris Buescher
Projected Finish: 17th

Additional notes from last week:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Ross Chastain, 7th)
-Only 12 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected to finish
-11 of the 37 drivers finished 14+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-3 of the 37 drivers finished 30+ sports (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the Top 15 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 15

Notable results this week

Winner: Michael McDowell
One to Watch: Austin Cindric
Disappointment: Aric Almirola

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 34 Michael McDowell 1st +0
2. 45 Tyler Reddick 4th -2
3. 5 Kyle Larson 8th -5
4. 9 Chase Elliott 2nd +2
5. 8 Kyle Busch 36th -31
6. 54 Ty Gibbs 12th -6
7. 48 Alex Bowman 5th +2
8. 20 Christopher Bell 9th -1
9. 2 Austin Cindric 15th -6
10. 19 Martin Truex Jr. 7th +3
11. 99 Daniel Suarez 3rd +8
12. 24 William Byron 14th -2
13. 91 Shane Van Gisbergen 10th +3
14. 17 Chris Buescher 11th +3
15. 16 A.J. Allmendinger 26th -11
16. 38 Todd Gilliland 37th -21
17. 7 Corey LaJoie 29th -12
18. 22 Joey Logano 34th -16
19. 1 Ross Chastain 17th +2
20. 14 Chase Briscoe 6th +14
21. 31 Justin Haley 38th -17
22. 12 Ryan Blaney 13th +9
23. 23 Bubba Wallace 18th +5
24. 33 Brodie Kostecki 22nd +2
25. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 25th +0
26. 41 Ryan Preece 31st -5
27. 4 Kevin Harvick 23rd +4
28. 11 Denny Hamlin 19th +8
29. 67 Kamui Kobayashi 33rd -4
30. 21 Harrison Burton 21st +9
31. 6 Brad Keselowski 20th +11
32. 3 Austin Dillon 16th +16
33. 15 Jenson Button 28th +5
34. 43 Erik Jones 35th -1
35. 10 Aric Almirola 39th -4
36. 78 Josh Bilicki 32nd +4
37. 51 Andy Lally 30th +7
38. 42 Mike Rockenfeller 24th +14
39. 77 Ty Dillon 27th +12

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.

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Daniel Smith
Daniel Smithhttps://pitpassnetwork.com
Cup drivers: Kyle Larson & Ross Chastain, Xfinity drivers: SVG & Ryan Sieg, Truck drivers: Grant Enfinger & Jake Garcia

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