This article is a race finish projection for the 2023 NASCAR Cup race at Michigan International Speedway. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Michigan Cup Outlook article (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Chase Elliott
Finished: 13th
Last weeks winner: Chris Buescher
Projected Finish: 10th
Additional notes from last week:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Denny Hamlin 2nd, Ryan Blaney 14th, Harrison 31st)
-21 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected to finish
-14 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected to finish
-8 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-11 of the Top 15 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 15
Notable results this week
Winner: Martin Truex Jr.
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Michael McDowell
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 2nd -1 |
| 2. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 11th -9 |
| 3. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 37th -34 |
| 4. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 13th -9 |
| 5. | 24 | William Byron | 35th -30 |
| 6. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 36th -30 |
| 7. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 7th +0 |
| 8. | 22 | Joey Logano | 14th -6 |
| 9. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 3rd +6 |
| 10. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 9th +1 |
| 11. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 4th +7 |
| 12. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 33rd -21 |
| 13. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 30th -17 |
| 14. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 18th -4 |
| 15. | 4 | Kevin Harvick | 8th +7 |
| 16. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 5th +11 |
| 17. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 1st +16 |
| 18. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 26th -8 |
| 19. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 21st -2 |
| 20. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 6th +14 |
| 21. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 19th +2 |
| 22. | 10 | Aric Almirola | 16th +6 |
| 23. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 17th +6 |
| 24. | 43 | Erik Jones | 10th +14 |
| 25. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 31st -6 |
| 26. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 24th +2 |
| 27. | 31 | Justin Haley | 23rd +4 |
| 28. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 12th +16 |
| 29. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 15th +14 |
| 30. | 62 | Austin Hill | 28th +2 |
| 31. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 22nd +9 |
| 32. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 29th +3 |
| 33. | 42 | Josh Berry | 34th -1 |
| 34. | 77 | Ty Dillon | 20th +14 |
| 35. | 51 | Cole Custer | 25th +10 |
| 36. | 15 | J.J. Yeley | 27th +9 |
| 37. | 78 | Josh Bilicki | 32nd +5 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
