This article is a race finish projection for the 2023 NASCAR Cup race at Watkins Glen International Raceway. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Watkins Glen Cup Outlook article (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Michael McDowell
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Michael McDowell
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last week:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Michael McDowell, 1st & Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 25th)
-10 of the 39 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected to finish
-21 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-Only 11 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-13 of the Top 15 drivers were projected to finish in the Top 15
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: A.J. Allmendinger
Disappointment: Brad Keselowski
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 26th -25 |
| 2. | 24 | William Byron | 1st +1 |
| 3. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 14th -11 |
| 4. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 4th +0 |
| 5. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 3rd +2 |
| 6. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 36th -30 |
| 7. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 32nd -25 |
| 8. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 8th +0 |
| 9. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 7th +2 |
| 10. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 5th +5 |
| 11. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 6th +5 |
| 12. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 20th -8 |
| 13. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 2nd +11 |
| 14. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 22nd -8 |
| 15. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 16th -1 |
| 16. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 23rd -7 |
| 17. | 22 | Joey Logano | 10th +7 |
| 18. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 18th +0 |
| 19. | 4 | Kevin Harvick | 21st -2 |
| 20. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 12th +8 |
| 21. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 35th -14 |
| 22. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 9th +13 |
| 23. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 31st -8 |
| 24. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 15th +9 |
| 25. | 31 | Justin Haley | 24th +1 |
| 26. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 13th +13 |
| 27. | 43 | Erik Jones | 29th -2 |
| 28. | 10 | Aric Almirola | 30th -2 |
| 29. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 11th +18 |
| 30. | 51 | Cole Custer | 28th +2 |
| 31. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 17th +14 |
| 32. | 77 | Ty Dillon | 34th -2 |
| 33. | 15 | Andy Lally | 25th +8 |
| 34. | 42 | Mike Rockenfeller | 19th +15 |
| 35. | 78 | Josh Bilicki | 27th +8 |
| 36. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 33rd +3 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
