Expectations for John Hunter Nemechek in 2024

On Wednesday night, John Hunter Nemechek announced that he has signed to drive Legacy Motor Club’s 42 car for the 2024 season. The Wednesday announcement confirmed what had been assumed since early August. With Legacy Motor Club’s switch to Toyota in 2024 (and Noah Gragson’s poor performance/suspension), a TRD driver taking over the 42 made sense. Nemechek is returning to the Cup Series after his rookie season in 2020. Last time in the Cup Series, Nemechek drove for Front Row Motorsports. After a middling rookie season in subpar equipment, Nemechek went back to the Truck Series to restart his career arc within Toyota. At the time of this writing, Nemechek has 12 wins between the two lower series in top Toyota equipment. He was a championship contender in 2021 and 2022 for KBM. This season, he is a favorite to hoist the Xfinity Series trophy.

John Hunter Nemechek’s career reset has seen him transition from an afterthought in the Cup Series to one of NASCAR’s top young prospects. The 26-year old driver has benefitted greatly from the past three seasons. However, he is now stepping into a ride that has been a disaster in 2023. Through 27 races, the 42 team has not finished inside the Top-10. Only four times has the car finished inside the Top-20. For comparison, through this point in his rookie season with Front Row, Nemechek had 2 Top-10s and 12 Top-20s.

After the Austin Hill extension with RCR, it was pondered if Nemechek would follow a similar path. With the expectation that Martin Truex Jr retires after next season, could Nemechek have spent one more season winning Xfinity Series races to then replace Truex in the 19? Instead, John Hunter Nemechek has signed with a team seemingly in the midst of a sharp decline.

John Hunter Nemechek Before the Career Restart

When John Hunter Nemechek ran his Cup Series rookie season, it was during the revolving door period at Front Row Motorsports for their 38 car. Nemechek was the second in the string of four different drivers in four years to drive the 38. At the time, Front Row did not have the desirable equipment or stability to hold onto top prospect drivers. However, Nemechek was not a top prospect when he was called up. Now, that is not to say that no one saw potential with Nemechek. However, Nemechek was not held in the same regard as he is now.

Before the 2020 season, Nemechek had been quietly performing well for his father’s Truck Series team. In 99 starts, Nemechek racked up 6 wins. However, Nemechek had a reputation of wrecking out of races. In those same 99 starts, Nemchek did not finish in 21 of those races. One out of every five races saw Nemechek not finishing his Truck Series start.

For the 2018 and 2019 seasons, Nemechek ran 51 races in the Xfinity Series. 2018 saw Nemechek run part time in Chip Ganassi’s 42 car. Meanwhile, 2019 was the lone fulltime Xfinity season Nemechek ran prior to his Cup rookie season with GMS. In those 51 starts, Nemechek won a race, finished Top-5 12 times, and finished Top-10 in almost 60% of his starts. While the call up to Cup seemed premature, Nemechek’s lower series performances did foretell his potential talent.

Rookie Cup Season

As mentioned earlier, John Hunter Nemechek’s rookie season was nothing impressive. Nemechek only racked up 3 Top-10s and averaged a 22.4 finish. With that said, this season was the pandemic racing era in full swing. After the first four races, there was no practice or qualifying. For a rookie attempting to find his footing, no practice or qualifying is a massive uphill battle.

To Nemechek’s credit, he was able to cut down on the DNFs for the 2020 season. A main goal for the driver in the 38 car was to keep the car in one piece. For the most part, Nemechek did that as he only had five DNFs in his rookie season, which was a drastic improvement from his 21% DNF rate in the Truck Series. Plus, Nemechek’s performance was an improvement over David Ragan’s tenure in the 38 car.

If he wanted, John Hunter Nemechek would have likely been welcomed back to Front Row for the 2021 season. Instead, Nemechek went back to the Truck Series to restart with a new manufacturer in the hope of landing a better Cup Series ride one day. Apparently, that better ride is Legacy Motor Club.

The State of Legacy Motor Club

John Hunter Nemechek is joining a team with issues. The former Richard Petty Motorsports and Petty-GMS Motorsports is in the middle of a disastrous 2023. For starters, their name is Legacy Motor Club. Beyond the poor choice of name, Legacy Motor Club has faced the following issues in 2023:

• Jimmie Johnson finishing outside the Top-30 in three starts
• Jimmie Johnson unable to race Chicago Street due to a family tragedy
• Erik Jones average finish up 3.4 positions from 2022
• 43 team receiving L1 penalty (60 points docked, $75,000 fine, and 2 race suspension for crew chief Dave Elenz)
• Announcing switch to Toyota early in the season to alienate themselves from Chevy
• Noah Gragson
  • One of the worst rookie seasons in recent NASCAR history
  • Concussion after crash at WWT Raceway
  • Suspension due to social media activity
  • Mutual decision to separate from the team

Toyota certainly has their work cutout to clean up this team. Now, that is where a silver lining might be for John Hunter Nemechek. Legacy Motor Club will be Toyota’s project for the 2024 season. The manufacturer will be working directly with the team, which should experience some improvement from this season. While LMC is a bottom tier team currently, perhaps Toyota (and Nemechek) believe the turn around can be swift. Teams like RFK Racing and Trackhouse are proof that a team can turn competitive in quick order.

The 42 Car

Through 27 races, the 42 car (between five drivers) has an average finish of 27.2. With Noah Gragson behind the wheel, the 42 car was frequently seen battling for position outside the Top-30. This was not the case in 2022 with Ty Dillon behind the wheel. While nothing to brag about, Dillon ran respectably in the same car and equipment before Gragson took over. In 2022, Dillon averaged a 22.6 finish (4.6 positions better than 2023) with 16 Top-20s. 2023 has been a massive downgrade for the team.

Despite the overall year being poor, recent results have shown some positive signs. In two of the past three races, the 42 car has finished inside the Top-20. Mike Rockenfeller finished nineteenth at Watkins Glen while Carson Hocevar finished seventeenth at Darlington. Now, both of those tracks rely heavily on driver skill. Rockenfeller is a skilled road course racer. While Hocevar was only making his second Cup Series start, the young driver has handled Darlington well in the Truck Series.

Kansas will be a big test for the 42 team. If the car is able to run inside the Top-20 again, maybe the 2023 issues were driver specific rather than the car. Under that assumption and Toyota’s new investment, the move to LMC for Nemechek might not look so dire.

2024 Expectations for JHN

This feels like déjà vu. Around the same time last year, Noah Gragson was announced for the 42 car. Gragson, who was in the midst of a career season in Xfinity, had a lot of hype around his Cup Series callup. At the time, there were some warning against having high expectations for Gragson. Fast forward to this year, an exciting Xfinity Series prospect (in the midst of a career season) is being called up to the Cup Series to drive the 42 car to much fanfare. If the former driver of the 42 goes to Spire’s 77 car, then the NASCAR world might be in a time loop.

The difference between this year and last year is Legacy Motor Club’s performance. After last season, LMC looked to be on the upswing. The NextGen car seemed to revitalize the team a bit. Many chalked up the 42’s mediocre performance to driver rather than equipment. After all, Erik Jones had a significantly better 2022 compared to 2021.

Heading into next season after the dumpster fire 2023 has been, few people have any significant expectation for LMC. While there is a belief that Toyota will help, it is doubtful anyone will share the same level of expectation for the 42 as they did heading into 2023.

With that under consideration, what can fans expect out of John Hunter Nemechek in the 42 next year? While expectations still need to be kept in check, Nemechek should have a considerably better season than Gragson was having in this car. It would be a fair assumption to think Nemechek could replicate Ty Dillon’s 2022 season in 2024. With Toyota being hands on, a small number of Top-10s and an average finish around the Top-20 is not unfair to expect. More than likely, the 42 car will still play second fiddle to Jones and the 43 team. Nemechek will likely be distant from the playoff point cutline with his only real chance of making it being a superspeedway win. For his first season back in Cup, that should be a foundation that Nemechek, LMC, and Toyota can build from.

Pit Stop for Something Better?

With the announcement for John Hunter Nemechek’s callup only being for 2024, this begs the question of how long does Toyota (and Nemechek) plan on having the driver in the 42 car. As discussed earlier, Martin Truex Jr is likely retiring after next season. If he does retire, who drives the 19 for 2025? With Nemechek in Cup, the only TRD prospects who will be in the two lower series are Sammy Smith, the Gray brothers, and Corey Heim with Jesse Love likely getting called up. Although Smith won Phoenix earlier this season, it is clear he needs more time in the lower series. The Gray brothers have done nothing impressive. Heim has shown the most promise but would JGR want him to run Cup after potentially only one season of Xfinity?

Since the prospect pool seems thin, would Joe Gibbs Racing choose to pry John Hunter Nemechek away from Legacy Motor Club? Even with the planned direct relationship with LMC, JGR will still be the top Toyota team. If JGR wants Nemechek for their team, surely they will take him. Now, that heavily depends on how well Nemechek drives the 42 next year. Would a 2022-Ty Dillon-esque season be enough to warrant Nemechek moving to the 19? Especially over other veteran Toyota drivers like Tyler Reddick or Erik Jones. It will be something to watch next silly season. Until then, John Hunter Nemechek will be the third different fulltime driver for the 42 team in as many seasons. Good luck to him.