Playoff racing heads to the great state of Texas for the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400. For the Cup Series, this will kick off the second round of the playoffs. Considered to be the wild card round, the Round of 12 hosts three straight unpredictable events. Texas Motor Speedway, in theory, should be on the lower end of chaos since it is a traditional intermediate. However, Texas always turns into a spectacle. Last year saw the All-Star descend into controversy as Ryan Blaney raced a green-white-checkered while holding his window net up. For the playoff race, Texas hosted the tire failure invitational. Multiple drivers saw their days ruined by blowing a tire. With this weekend’s race being the lone Texas date, what kind of madness can fans expect?
The AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 will be the race in this round where drivers will feel the safest. Talladega is unpredictably pack racing and the ROVAL will have at least three Turn 1 launches. While Texas has a history of wildness, it should be the tamest of the round. At the very least, it should be one of the more predictable races. If a driver has speed, they should do well. Especially for the road course novices of the playoff drivers, Texas will be vitally important to their hopes of advancing to the Round of 8. If Goodyear was able to fix the tire issue from last year, expect drivers to be aggressive for stage points. Every point carries greater weight during the playoffs, so the closing laps of each stage could be exciting to watch. However, it is still Texas Motor Speedway.
Who are the five drivers to watch this weekend for the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400? If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
Denny Hamlin
Off the back of a strong first round, Denny Hamlin enters the Round of 12 as the championship favorite for many. Unlike some other playoff drivers, the Round of 12 suites Hamlin fairly well. Starting with Texas, where Hamlin will likely have the necessary speed to compete for the win. Hamlin has three wins at Texas, with his last one coming in 2019. Last year, Hamlin finished second in the All-Star race and tenth in the playoff race. Even in the NextGen car, Hamlin has found speed at Texas Motor Speedway.
While Hamlin could have won all three races last round, Denny Hamlin and his team got in their own way. At Darlington, a potentially loose tire brought Hamlin back on pit road. Hamlin was caught sleeping on the last restart at Kansas to lose that race. Similar to most of the Toyota teams, the question of whether Hamlin can win any given week (or the championship) comes down to staying out their own way. The 11 team does have the momentum, but there have been moments where the top team falls in this round. Texas sparked Kevin Harvick’s downfall in 2020. Could Denny Hamlin be facing a similar situation? Two mistakes in the Round of 16 could foretell future mistakes. Or Hamlin dominates the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 and clinches his Round of 8 spot.
Zane Smith
Fresh off the Trackhouse announcement Saturday, Zane Smith will stepping into the 38 Front Row Motorsports car this Sunday. In his penultimate Cup Series start with Ford, Smith will be replacing Todd Gilliland. Gilliland will drive for Rick Ware Racing on Sunday. For Smith, this is more vital seat time in the NextGen car to better prepare him for 2024. So far this season, his Cup Series starts have been unremarkable. However, his lone bright spot was a Top-10 at Charlotte. Texas is identical in shape to Charlotte, which could imply a strong run for Smith Sunday.
With the fanfare of the news, there will be some eyes on Zane Smith. Being considered one of the top prospects in NASCAR, every appearance in the Cup Series will be evaluated by all. While there is no pressure on Smith to perform, another solid run Sunday would be a boost for Smith. He is still fighting for a Craftsman Truck Series championship. A strong Cup Series run could help give him necessary momentum after a mistake at Bristol has put him behind the cutline.
Bubba Wallace
Bubba Wallace exceeded many people’s low expectations and advanced to the Round of 12 in his first playoff appearance. Now, the goal for Wallace and his team is to secure a victory in this series of races to secure his spot in the next round. Many will point to Talladega as Wallace’s best chance to find victory lane. However, the Toyotas have brought speed to the intermediates. While only one Toyota finished in the Top-10 last year, three Toyotas did not finish the race while Ty Gibbs was still filling in for the injured Kurt Busch.
While Bubba Wallace did not perform well last year at Texas, he did have a Top-5 in the Coke 600. Charlotte is not Texas, but they closely resemble each other. Wallace’s strong runs at Charlotte and Kansas point to a potentially good run Sunday. With that said, Wallace is not immune to the Toyota issues that have plagued all their teams. Driver, pit crew, and team must provide a clean race in order for Wallace to make up ground on the cutline. Without any playoff points, Wallace has little room for error. Much like Kansas last round, the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 has the chance to be a big success or massive letdown for Bubba Wallace.
William Byron
As discussed in this week’s power rankings, William Byron’s first round was surprisingly mediocre for the driver with the most wins on the season. Darlington saw him finish Top-5, but he had a bad qualifying run. Kansas and Bristol were quiet races for the 24 team. While his fist round was not bad, it did not support the idea that Byron has a cake walk to the Championship Four. Texas is a chance for Byron to reset and start building momentum. Though Martin Truex Jr proved a disastrous round can threaten a comfy points cushion, Byron should be fairly safe from elimination with his 36 playoff points.
Last year, William Byron had a solid run at Texas. Byron led 42 laps after qualifying third. He also racked up 13 stage points and finished seventh. With the improved performance from this season, Byron could shape up to be the leading on Sunday. While teammate Kyle Larson was the top Chevy driver last round, Byron could easily usurp him this round. Especially with Larson’s luck at superspeedways, a strong Texas showing for Byron could lead to a strong statement round from a driver on top of the leaderboard.
Ryan Blaney
Heading into the Round of 12, many are ready to write off Ryan Blaney as the next Team Penske driver to be eliminated from the playoffs. After a lackluster Bristol race, it would seem that Blaney has little momentum. Plus, Team Penske overall has been lacking race winning speed compared to the other teams in the playoffs. Through 29 races, Blaney only has four Top-5s. His eliminated teammate has nine but still lacked Top-5 speed (Logano has lucked into numerous Top-5s). Based on this, Blaney should be someone to expect to be eliminated this weekend.
However, this set of races for Ryan Blaney works in his favor. Blaney has two wins at Talladega and a win on the ROVAL. While Blaney has no points paying wins at Texas, he won the All-Star race last year (in the NextGen car). Plus, Blaney’s lone win this season was at Charlotte. For the playoff race last year, Blaney finished in the Top-5 and led 29 laps. While there are plenty of reasons to have low expectations for Blaney, do not underestimate him in this round. With Joey Logano eliminated, Penske will likely make Blaney the focus at the race shop. If they unload with the right setup, Blaney would be a worthy pick for the race win. The playoff field should watch out for Ryan Blaney this round, especially in the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400.
