It’s Bristol baby! The Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway will host the first elimination race of the Cup Series Playoffs. A battle at The Last Great Colosseum will see four drivers eliminated Saturday night. Heading into the race, three playoff drivers are essentially in must-win mode (or at least, must-win stages mode). Surprisingly, the regular season champion is currently on the outside looking in, 7 points back of the cutline. There are five drivers under 20 points to the good as well. With the potential chaos and calamity that Bristol has to offer, every driver not locked in on points must feel a bit uneasy. Hopefully, the NextGen car can pull a good short track race out of nowhere to help live up to the hype of this elimination race.
Not only is the playoff cutline tight for the driver playoffs, but the owner playoffs might be more intriguing. With the 9 team in the owner playoffs, there is the potential for the a driver to advance but his team does not. Six teams are separated by only twelve points around the cutline. While the attention goes to the driver playoffs, the financial winnings are more lucrative for the owner championship.
On top of all the playoff talk, Bristol is known to be a place where drama is created or continues. While Chase Elliott called it a “non-issue”, will his frustrations with Kyle Larson continue at the Bass Pro Shops Night Race? Will there be tensions with non-playoff drivers that hurt the playoff contenders? All that is something to look out for on Saturday night, along with these five drivers to watch. If you want a statistical insight heading into Sunday, check out Daniel Smith’s notable starts and statistical outlook articles.
AJ Allmendinger
Before discussing the four playoff drivers for this weekend, AJ Allmendinger will be the spotlighted non-playoff driver. With Kaulig Racing expected to make an announcement at Bristol Friday, there is a chance this might be Allmendinger’s last Bristol Cup race (if he were to move to the Xfinity Series). While 2023 has been a bitter disappointment for Allmendinger, his 2022 run at Bristol might hint at a potential Top-10 this year. Last year, Allmendinger finished seventh after qualifying thirteenth. He ran most of the race in the Top-15 as well.
If Allmendinger is going to be one and done as a fulltime driver in the NextGen car, hopefully he can rack up some quality finishes before the season is over. Bristol would be a good place to start. Outside of his Top-10 last year, Allmendinger has been strong at Bristol in the Xfinity Series. In three starts, Allmendinger has one win and an average finish of 5.7. Seemingly, the road course ringer has found a groove at the banked short track. If this is his last Cup Series race at Bristol, keep an eye on AJ Allmendinger to be a surprise Top-10 finisher.
Martin Truex Jr
As discussed in the introduction, Martin Truex Jr is having a terrible first round. After his DNF at Kansas, Truex now sits 7 points behind the cutline. This is a big surprise, as many expected Truex to be a lock for the Championship Four. However, back-to-back poor races for the 19 team now sees Bristol as a last chance to advance in the playoffs. Unfortunately for Truex, Bristol has been one of his weaker tracks in his career.
Not including superspeedways, Bristol is Truex’s second worst track (per average finish). In 32 starts, Truex has only managed four Top-10s in his career. His two Top-5s came back when he was racing with Michael Waltrip Racing. In six starts with Joe Gibbs Racing, Truex has only managed one Top-10 (2021) and an average finish of 19.5. While some bad luck factors into Truex’s poor finishes, his track record at Bristol does not inspire confidence. Heading into the first round, Darlington and Kansas were thought to be where Truex would thrive and essentially clinch his way to the next round. Now, Truex has to reverse his bad luck at the Bass Pro Shops Night Race in order to keep his championship hopes alive.
Chris Buescher
Much like Martin Truex Jr, a failed right rear tire ruined Kansas for Chris Buescher. Prior to his tire going down, Buescher looked set to enter Bristol with a better cushion of 28 points above the cutline. Now, Buescher sits ninth in points with a more stressful 13 point advantage. Unlike Truex, Bristol has been a good track for the Prosper, Texas native. He managed to Top-5 in 2016 Front Row equipment. Most notably, Buescher won last year’s Bristol night race. Both RFK Racing entries were strong, which gives more hope to Buescher staying above the cutline than some other drivers.
While the challenges of Bristol are difficult enough, Chris Buescher is going to have to find a way to better one of his weaker areas this season: stage points. Buescher has struggled to rack up stage points this year. On Saturday, it could be a big benefit or detriment to his playoff hopes. Solid finishes are great, but Buescher will need to look for Top-5 finishes in both stages bolster his margin to the cutline. Last year, Buescher only managed to net himself four stage points en route to the win. Buescher might need to point race the Bass Pro Shops Night Race on Saturday. However, if Buescher can go back-to-back at Bristol, then stage points will not matter.
Kyle Busch
Can Kyle Busch have a normal weekend? When was the last time that Busch and the 8 team had a clean weekend at the track? Despite the recent Saturday incidents, Busch heads into Bristol with a decently comfortable cushion. He is 24 points above the cutline and has five drivers in between. Plus, Bristol is known to be Rowdy’s track. In 33 starts, Busch has racked up eight wins (nine if you include his dirt win last year), fourteen Top-5s, and an average finish of 13.7. Busch has been dominate at Bristol in his career.
With that said, the past two visits to the concrete Bristol have not been kind to Kyle Busch. Both races saw Busch finish outside the Top-20, with a DNF last year due to a mechanical issue. Based on his recent weekends, it would not be surprising for something to happen to Busch this weekend. Bristol is not known to be a place to ease up on drivers who are in a bit of a rut.
Despite this, Busch and his team have been able to bounce back both playoff races to finish well. As long as Busch avoid disaster, he should easily walk his way into the Round of 12. If they can avoid mistakes or the wall, then Busch will be a favorite to win the race as well.
Brad Keselowski
Outside of Talladega, if you were to bet on a playoff race where Brad Keselowski would pick up his first RFK win, Bristol would be the place. RFK’s short track program has been excellent since last fall. If not for a tire failure late in the race, Keselowski might have been the RFK driver to visit victory lane last year. Keselowski has shown great speed at every short track this season. The Bass Pro Shops Night Race should be no different.
Unlike his teammate, Keselowski sits in a great spot in the standings. Without receiving any stage points, Keselowski will lock himself into the next round with a seventh place finish or better. However, Keselowski has been a stage point hawk this season. Despite no wins on the season, the RFK owner has netted himself five stage wins, including one at Richmond. Last year, Keselowski won Stage 1. The 6 team has been running with consistent Top-5 speed over the past six ovals. No reason for it to stop on Saturday night.
