After 2 races in the NASCAR Cup Series Round of 16 only 2 drivers have clinched a spot in the Round of 12, both because of wins. Now we head to the Round of 16 finale, Bristol, where 4 drivers and 4 owners will be eliminated from championship contention. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 12. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out.
*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario
Driver Points Clinching Scenarios
1)Â Kyle Larson
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- Clinched based on win at Darlington
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2) Tyler Reddick
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- Clinched based on win at Kansas
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3) Denny Hamlin
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 2nd, 25th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 7 points (30th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 1* of the following scenarios
- Be within 7 points of William Byron
- Be within 15 points of Brad Keselowski
- Be within 23 points of Ryan Blaney
- Be within 24 points of Kyle Busch
- Be within 30 points of Ross Chastain
- Be within 35 points of Chris Buescher
- Be within 35 points of Christopher Bell
- Be within 36 points of Joey Logano
- Be within 41 points of Kevin Harvick
- Be within 48 points of Martin Truex Jr.
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 14 points (23rd place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 1* of the scenarios above
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4) William Byron
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 4th, 15th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 15 points (22nd place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 2* of the following scenarios
- 9+ points more than Denny Hamlin
- Be within 7 points of Brad Keselowski
- Be within 15 points of Ryan Blaney
- Be within 16 points of Kyle Busch
- Be within 22 points of Ross Chastain
- Be within 27 points of Chris Buescher
- Be within 27 points of Christopher Bell
- Be within 28 points of Joey Logano
- Be within 33 points of Kevin Harvick
- Be within 40 points of Martin Truex Jr.
- Be within 52 points of Bubba Wallace
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 22 points (15th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 2* of the scenarios above
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5) Brad Keselowski
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 6th, 9th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 23 points (14th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 3* of the following scenarios
- 17+ points more than Denny Hamlin
- 9+ points more than William Byron
- Be within 7 points of Ryan Blaney
- Be within 8 points of Kyle Busch
- Be within 14 points of Ross Chastain
- Be within 19 points of Chris Buescher
- Be within 19 points of Christopher Bell
- Be within 20 points of Joey Logano
- Be within 25 points of Kevin Harvick
- Be within 32 points of Martin Truex Jr.
- Be within 44 points of Bubba Wallace
- Be within 47 points of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 30 points (7th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 3* of the scenarios above
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6) Ryan Blaney
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 9th, 12th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 31 points (6th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 3* of the following scenarios
- 25+ points more than Denny Hamlin
- 17+ points more than William Byron
- 9+ points more than Brad Keselowski
- 0+ points more than Kyle Busch
- Be within 6 points of Ross Chastain
- Be within 11 points of Chris Buescher
- Be within 11 points of Christopher Bell
- Be within 12 points of Joey Logano
- Be within 17 points of Kevin Harvick
- Be within 24 points of Martin Truex Jr.
- Be within 36 points of Bubba Wallace
- Be within 39 points of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 38 points (2nd place finish + 3 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 3* of the scenarios above
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7) Kyle Busch
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 7th, 11th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 32 points (5th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 3* of the following scenarios
- 26+ points more than Denny Hamlin
- 18+ points more than William Byron
- 10+ points more than Brad Keselowski
- 2+ points more than Ryan Blaney
- Be within 5 points of Ross Chastain
- Be within 10 points of Chris Buescher
- Be within 10 points of Christopher Bell
- Be within 11 points of Joey Logano
- Be within 16 points of Kevin Harvick
- Be within 23 points of Martin Truex Jr.
- Be within 35 points of Bubba Wallace
- Be within 38 points of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 39 points (2nd place finish + 4 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 3* of the scenarios above
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8) Ross Chastain
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 5th, 13th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 38 points (2nd place finish + 3 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 32+ points more than Denny Hamlin
- 24+ points more than William Byron
- 16+ points more than Brad Keselowski
- 8+ points more than Ryan Blaney
- 7+ points more than Kyle Busch
- Be within 4 points of Chris Buescher
- Be within 4 points of Christopher Bell
- Be within 5 points of Joey Logano
- Be within 10 points of Kevin Harvick
- Be within 17 points of Martin Truex Jr.
- Be within 29 points of Bubba Wallace
- Be within 32 points of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Be within 50 points of Michael McDowell
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 45 points (2nd place finish + 10 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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9) Chris Buescher
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 3rd, 27th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 37+ points more than Denny Hamlin
- 28+ points more than William Byron
- 20+ points more than Brad Keselowski
- 13+ points more than Ryan Blaney
- 12+ points more than Kyle Busch
- 6+ points more than Ross Chastain
- 1+ point more than Christopher Bell
- 0+ points more than Joey Logano
- Be within 5 points of Kevin Harvick
- Be within 12 points of Martin Truex Jr.
- Be within 24 points of Bubba Wallace
- Be within 27 points of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Be within 45 points of Michael McDowell
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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10) Christopher Bell
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 8th, 23rd
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 37+ points more than Denny Hamlin
- 29+ points more than William Byron
- 21+ points more than Brad Keselowski
- 13+ points more than Ryan Blaney
- 12+ points more than Kyle Busch
- 6+ points more than Ross Chastain
- 1+ point more than Chris Buescher
- 0+ points more than Joey Logano
- Be within 5 points of Kevin Harvick
- Be within 12 points of Martin Truex Jr.
- Be within 24 points of Bubba Wallace
- Be within 27 points of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Be within 45 points of Michael McDowell
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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11) Joey Logano
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 5th, 12th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 44 points (2nd place finish + 9 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 38+ points more than Denny Hamlin
- 30+ points more than William Byron
- 21+ points more than Brad Keselowski
- 14+ points more than Ryan Blaney
- 13+ points more than Kyle Busch
- 7+ points more than Ross Chastain
- 2+ points more than Chris Buescher
- 2+ points more than Christopher Bell
- Be within 4 points of Kevin Harvick
- Be within 11 points of Martin Truex Jr.
- Be within 23 points of Bubba Wallace
- Be within 26 points of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Be within 44 points of Michael McDowell
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 51 points (2nd place finish + 16 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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12) Kevin Harvick
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 11th, 19th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 43+ points more than Denny Hamlin
- 35+ points more than William Byron
- 26+ points more than Brad Keselowski
- 19+ points more than Ryan Blaney
- 18+ points more than Kyle Busch
- 12+ points more than Ross Chastain
- 7+ points more than Chris Buescher
- 7+ points more than Christopher Bell
- 6+ points more than Joey Logano
- Be within 6 points of Martin Truex Jr.
- Be within 18 points of Bubba Wallace
- Be within 21 points of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Be within 39 points of Michael McDowell
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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Cutline
13) Martin Truex Jr.
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 18th, 36th
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 50+ points more than Denny Hamlin
- 42+ points more than William Byron
- 34+ points more than Brad Keselowski
- 26+ points more than Ryan Blaney
- 25+ points more than Kyle Busch
- 19+ points more than Ross Chastain
- 14+ points more than Chris Buescher
- 14+ points more than Christopher Bell
- 13+ points more than Joey Logano
- 8+ points more than Kevin Harvick
- Be within 11 points of Bubba Wallace
- Be within 14 points of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Be within 32 points of Michael McDowell
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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14) Bubba Wallace
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 7th, 32nd
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 54+ points more than William Byron
- 46+ points more than Brad Keselowski
- 37+ points more than Ryan Blaney
- 37+ points more than Kyle Busch
- 31+ points more than Ross Chastain
- 26+ points more than Chris Buescher
- 26+ points more than Christopher Bell
- 25+ points more than Joey Logano
- 19+ points more than Kevin Harvick
- 13+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
- Be within 2 points of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Be within 20 points of Michael McDowell
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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15) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 16th, 23rd
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 49+ points more than Brad Keselowski
- 41+ points more than Ryan Blaney
- 40+ points more than Kyle Busch
- 34+ points more than Ross Chastain
- 29+ points more than Chris Buescher
- 29+ points more than Christopher Bell
- 28+ points more than Joey Logano
- 23+ points more than Kevin Harvick
- 16+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
- 4+ points more than Bubba Wallace
- Be within 17 points of Michael McDowell
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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16) Michael McDowell
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 26th, 32nd
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- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 52+ points more than Ross Chastain
- 47+ points more than Chris Buescher
- 47+ points more than Christopher Bell
- 46+ points more than Joey Logano
- 41+ points more than Kevin Harvick
- 34+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
- 22+ points more than Bubba Wallace
- 19+ points more than Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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Owner Points Clinching Scenarios
1) Hendrick Motorsports No.5
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- Clinched based on win at Darlington
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2) 23XI Racing No.45
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- Clinched based on win at Kansas
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3) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 2nd, 25th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 14 points (23rd place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 2* of the following scenarios
- Be within 7 points of the No.24
- Be within 15 points of the No.6
- Be within 23 points of the No.12
- Be within 24 points of the No.8
- Be within 29 points of the No.9
- Be within 30 points of the No.1
- Be within 35 points of the No.17
- Be within 35 points of the No.20
- Be within 36 points of the No.22
- Be within 41 points of the No.4
- Be within 48 points of the No.19
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 19 points (18th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 2* of the scenarios above
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4) Hendrick Motorsports No.24
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 4th, 15th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 22 points (15th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 2* of the following scenarios
- 9+ points more than the No.11
- Be within 7 points of the No.6
- Be within 15 points of the No.12
- Be within 16 points of the No.8
- Be within 21points of the No.9
- Be within 22 points of the No.1
- Be within 27 points of the No.17
- Be within 27 points of the No.20
- Be within 28 points of the No.22
- Be within 33 points of the No.4
- Be within 40 points of the No.19
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 27 points (10th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 2* of the scenarios above
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5) RFK Racing No.6
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 6th, 9th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 30 points (7th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 3* of the following scenarios
- 17+ points more than the No.11
- 9+ points more than the No.24
- Be within 7 points of the No.12
- Be within 8 points of the No.8
- Be within 13 points of the No.9
- Be within 14 points of the No.1
- Be within 19 points of the No.17
- Be within 19 points of the No.20
- Be within 20 points of the No.22
- Be within 25 points of the No.4
- Be within 32 points of the No.19
- Be within 47 points of the No.47
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 35 points (2nd place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 3* of the scenarios above
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6) Team Penske No.12
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 9th, 12th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 38 points (2nd place finish + 3 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 3* of the following scenarios
- 25+ points more than the No.11
- 17+ points more than the No.24
- 9+ points more than the No.6
- 0+ points more than the No.8
- Be within 5 points of the No.9
- Be within 6 points of the No.1
- Be within 11 points of the No.17
- Be within 11 points of the No.20
- Be within 12 points of the No.22
- Be within 17 points of the No.4
- Be within 24 points of the No.19
- Be within 39 points of the No.47
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 3* of the scenarios above
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7) Richard Childress Racing No.8
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 7th, 11th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 39 points (2nd place finish + 4 stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 3* of the following scenarios
- 26+ points more than the No.11
- 18+ points more than the No.24
- 10+ points more than the No.6
- 2+ points more than the No.12
- Be within 4 points of the No.9
- Be within 5 points of the No.1
- Be within 10 points of the No.17
- Be within 10 points of the No.20
- Be within 11 points of the No.22
- Be within 16 points of the No.4
- Be within 23 points of the No.19
- Be within 38 points of the No.47
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 44 points (2nd place finish + 9 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 3* of the scenarios above
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8) Hendrick Motorsports No.9
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 6th, 8th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 44 points (2nd place finish + 9 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 31+ points more than the No.11
- 23+ points more than the No.24
- 15+ points more than the No.6
- 7+ points more than the No.12
- 6+ points more than the No.8
- 0+ points more than the No.1
- Be within 5 points of the No.17
- Be within 5 points of the No.20
- Be within 6 points of the No.22
- Be within 11 points of the No.4
- Be within 18 points of the No.19
- Be within 30 points of the No.23
- Be within 33 points of the No.47
- Be within 51 points of the No.34
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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9) Trackhouse Racing No.1
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 5th, 13th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 45 points (2nd place finish + 10 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 32+ points more than the No.11
- 24+ points more than the No.24
- 16+ points more than the No.6
- 8+ points more than the No.12
- 7+ points more than the No.8
- 2+ points more than the No.9
- Be within 4 points of the No.17
- Be within 4 points of the No.20
- Be within 5 points of the No.22
- Be within 10 points of the No.4
- Be within 17 points of the No.19
- Be within 32 points of the No.47
- Be within 50 points of the No.34
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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10) RFK Racing No.17
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 3rd, 27th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 37+ points more than the No.11
- 28+ points more than the No.24
- 20+ points more than the No.6
- 13+ points more than the No.12
- 12+ points more than the No.8
- 7+ points more than the No.9
- 6+ points more than the No.1
- 1+ point more than the No.20
- 0+ points more than the No.22
- Be within 5 points of the No.4
- Be within 12 points of the No.19
- Be within 27 points of the No.47
- Be within 45 points of the No.34
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 55 points (2nd place finish + 20 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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11) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 8th, 23rd
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 37+ points more than the No.11
- 29+ points more than the No.24
- 21+ points more than the No.6
- 13+ points more than the No.12
- 12+ points more than the No.8
- 7+ points more than the No.9
- 6+ points more than the No.1
- 1+ point more than the No.17
- 0+ points more than the No.22
- Be within 5 points of the No.4
- Be within 12 points of the No.19
- Be within 27 points of the No.47
- Be within 45 points of the No.34
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 55 points (2nd place finish + 20 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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12) Team Penske No.22
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 5th, 12th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 51 points (2nd place finish + 16 Stage Pts)
- -OR-
- Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 38+ points more than the No.11
- 30+ points more than the No.24
- 21+ points more than the No.6
- 14+ points more than the No.12
- 13+ points more than the No.8
- 8+ points more than the No.9
- 7+ points more than the No.1
- 2+ points more than the No.17
- 2+ points more than the No.20
- Be within 4 points of the No.4
- Be within 11 points of the No.19
- Be within 26 points of the No.47
- Be within 44 points of the No.34
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
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Cutline
13) Stewart-Haas Racing No.4
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 11th, 19th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 43+ points more than the No.11
- 35+ points more than the No.24
- 26+ points more than the No.6
- 19+ points more than the No.12
- 18+ points more than the No.8
- 13+ points more than the No.9
- 12+ points more than the No.1
- 7+ points more than the No.17
- 7+ points more than the No.20
- 6+ points more than the No.22
- Be within 6 points of the No.19
- Be within 21 points of the No.47
- Be within 39 points of the No.34
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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14) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 18th, 36th
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 50+ points more than the No.11
- 42+ points more than the No.24
- 34+ points more than the No.6
- 26+ points more than the No.12
- 25+ points more than the No.8
- 20+ points more than the No.9
- 19+ points more than the No.1
- 14+ points more than the No.17
- 14+ points more than the No.20
- 13+ points more than the No.22
- 8+ points more than the No.4
- Be within 14 points of the No.47
- Be within 32 points of the No.34
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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15) JTG Daugherty Racing
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 16th, 23rd
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 49+ points more than the No.6
- 41+ points more than the No.12
- 40+ points more than the No.8
- 35+ points more than the No.9
- 34+ points more than the No.1
- 29+ points more than the No.17
- 29+ points more than the No.20
- 28+ points more than the No.22
- 23+ points more than the No.4
- 16+ points more than the No.19
- Be within 17 points of the No.34
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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16) Front Row Motorsports No.34
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 26th, 32nd
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- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
- 53+ points more than the No.9
- 52+ points more than the No.1
- 47+ points more than the No.17
- 47+ points more than the No.20
- 46+ points more than the No.22
- 41+ points more than the No.4
- 34+ points more than the No.19
- 19+ points more than the No.47
- Owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
- Owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
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