Clinching Scenarios: Cup Series – Kansas

One race is down in the 2023 Cup Series playoffs and after Kyle Larson’s win at Darlington last week there are now 11 driver and owner spots left in the Round of 12. While there are still 2 races left in the first round there are still some ways in which more spots can be clinched this weekend at Kansas. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the playoffs. Likely the drivers will not need this much, but this is the maximum that needs to be done to clinch. However in the instance where a driver needs more or less than another, that is what needs to be done (or better) no exceptions. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that is only changes some scenarios by 1 point.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Kyle Larson

• • • Clinched based on win at Darlington

2) William Byron

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 41 points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 38 points more than Chris Buescher
      • 38 points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 36 points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 31 points more than Kyle Busch
      • 29 points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 27 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 24 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 14 points more than Joey Logano
      • 12 points more than Christopher Bell
      • 11 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 10 points more than Kevin Harvick
      • 8 points more than Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
      • 48 points (2nd place finish + 13 Stage Pts) OR within 7 points of Michael McDowell
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

3) Tyler Reddick

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 53 points more than Chris Buescher
      • 53 points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 51 points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 46 points more than Kyle Busch
      • 44 points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 42 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 39 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 29 points more than Joey Logano
      • 27 points more than Christopher Bell
      • 26 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 25 points more than Kevin Harvick
      • 23 points more than Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
      • 8 points more than Michael McDowell
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

4) Chris Buescher

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 54 points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 49 points more than Kyle Busch
      • 47 points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 45 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 42 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 32 points more than Joey Logano
      • 30 points more than Christopher Bell
      • 29 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 28 points more than Kevin Harvick
      • 26 points more than Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
      • 11 points more than Michael McDowell
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

5) Denny Hamlin

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 54 points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 49 points more than Kyle Busch
      • 47 points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 45 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 42 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 32 points more than Joey Logano
      • 30 points more than Christopher Bell
      • 29 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 28 points more than Kevin Harvick
      • 26 points more than Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
      • 11 points more than Michael McDowell
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

6) Martin Truex Jr.

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 51 points more than Kyle Busch
      • 49 points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 47 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 44 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 34 points more than Joey Logano
      • 32 points more than Christopher Bell
      • 31 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 30 points more than Kevin Harvick
      • 28 points more than Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
      • 13 points more than Michael McDowell
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

7) Kyle Busch

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 54 points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 52 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 49 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 39 points more than Joey Logano
      • 37 points more than Christopher Bell
      • 36 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 35 points more than Kevin Harvick
      • 33 points more than Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
      • 18 points more than Michael McDowell
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

8) Brad Keselowski

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 54 points more than Ryan Blaney
      • 51 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 41 points more than Joey Logano
      • 39 points more than Christopher Bell
      • 38 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 37 points more than Kevin Harvick
      • 35 points more than Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
      • 20 points more than Michael McDowell
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

9) Ryan Blaney

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 53 points more than Ross Chastain
      • 43 points more than Joey Logano
      • 41 points more than Christopher Bell
      • 40 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 39 points more than Kevin Harvick
      • 37 points more than Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
      • 22 points more than Michael McDowell
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

10) Ross Chastain

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 46 points more than Joey Logano
      • 44 points more than Christopher Bell
      • 43 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 42 points more than Kevin Harvick
      • 40 points more than Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
      • 25 points more than Michael McDowell
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

11) Joey Logano

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Win OR Needs all 5* of the following scenarios
      • 54 points more than Christopher Bell
      • 53 points more than Bubba Wallace
      • 52 points more than Kevin Harvick
      • 50 points more than Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
      • 35 points more than Michael McDowell
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Can’t clinch

12) Christopher Bell

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Can’t clinch
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Must win to clinch

13) Bubba Wallace

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Can’t clinch
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Must win to clinch

14) Kevin Harvick

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Can’t clinch
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Must win to clinch

15) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Can’t clinch
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Must win to clinch

16) Michael McDowell

• • • Driver below cut or Bell doesn’t win: Can’t clinch
    • Driver below cut or Bell wins: Must win to clinch

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Hendrick Motorsports No.5

• • • Clinched based on win at Darlington

2) Hendrick Motorsports No.24

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 41 points more than the No.45
      • 38 points more than the No.17
      • 38 points more than the No.11
      • 36 points more than the No.19
      • 31 points more than the No.8
      • 29 points more than the No.6
      • 27 points more than the No.12
      • 24 points more than the No.1
      • 15 points more than the No.9
      • 14 points more than the No.22
      • 12 points more than the No.20
      • 10 points more than the No.4
      • 8 points more than the No.47
      • 48 points (2nd place finish + 13 Stage Pts) OR within 7 points of the No.34
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

3) 23XI Racing No.45

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 53 points more than the No.17
      • 53 points more than the No.11
      • 51 points more than the No.19
      • 46 points more than the No.8
      • 44 points more than the No.6
      • 42 points more than the No.12
      • 39 points more than the No.1
      • 30 points more than the No.9
      • 29 points more than the No.22
      • 27 points more than the No.20
      • 25 points more than the No.4
      • 23 points more than the No.47
      • 8 points more than the No.34
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

4) RFK Racing No.17

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 54 points more than the No.19
      • 49 points more than the No.8
      • 47 points more than the No.6
      • 45 points more than the No.12
      • 42 points more than the No.1
      • 33 points more than the No.9
      • 32 points more than the No.22
      • 30 points more than the No.20
      • 28 points more than the No.4
      • 26 points more than the No.47
      • 11 points more than the No.34
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

5) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 54 points more than the No.19
      • 49 points more than the No.8
      • 47 points more than the No.6
      • 45 points more than the No.12
      • 42 points more than the No.1
      • 33 points more than the No.9
      • 32 points more than the No.22
      • 30 points more than the No.20
      • 28 points more than the No.4
      • 26 points more than the No.47
      • 11 points more than the No.34
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

6) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 51 points more than the No.8
      • 49 points more than the No.6
      • 47 points more than the No.12
      • 44 points more than the No.1
      • 35 points more than the No.9
      • 34 points more than the No.22
      • 32 points more than the No.20
      • 30 points more than the No.4
      • 28 points more than the No.47
      • 13 points more than the No.34
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

7) Richard Childress Racing No.8

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 54 points more than the No.6
      • 52 points more than the No.12
      • 49 points more than the No.1
      • 40 points more than the No.9
      • 39 points more than the No.22
      • 37 points more than the No.20
      • 35 points more than the No.4
      • 33 points more than the No.47
      • 18 points more than the No.34
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

8) RFK Racing No.6

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 54 points more than the No.12
      • 51 points more than the No.1
      • 42 points more than the No.9
      • 41 points more than the No.22
      • 39 points more than the No.20
      • 37 points more than the No.4
      • 35 points more than the No.47
      • 20 points more than the No.34
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

9) Team Penske No.12

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 53 points more than the No.1
      • 44 points more than the No.9
      • 43 points more than the No.22
      • 41 points more than the No.20
      • 39 points more than the No.4
      • 37 points more than the No.47
      • 22 points more than the No.34
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

10) Trackhouse Racing No.1

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Win OR Needs 5* of the following scenarios
      • 47 points more than the No.9
      • 46 points more than the No.22
      • 44 points more than the No.20
      • 42 points more than the No.4
      • 40 points more than the No.47
      • 25 points more than the No.34
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Needs 5* of the following scenarios

11) Hendrick Motorsports No.9

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Win OR Needs all 5* of the following scenarios
      • 55 points more than the No.22
      • 53 points more than the No.20
      • 51 points more than the No.4
      • 49 points more than the No.47
      • 34 points more than the No.34
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Can’t clinch

12) Team Penske No.22

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Can’t clinch
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Must win to clinch

13) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Can’t clinch
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Must win to clinch

14) Stewart-Haas Racing No.4

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Can’t clinch
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Must win to clinch

15) JTG Daugherty Racing No.47

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Can’t clinch
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Must win to clinch

16) Front Row Motorsports No.34

• • • Owner below cut or the No.22 doesn’t win: Can’t clinch
    • Owner below cut or the No.22 wins: Must win to clinch